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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Cockatoo Coal

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through October 14, 2010 » Cockatoo Coal

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jaded
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Sunday, April 04, 2010 - 09:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Can we all try and minimise the code jokes for Cockatoo Coal[COK]?
I had a share once coded PHK and got a weeks suspension from d'Barbque when it deep downtrended and I said it was PHKed.

Anyway,Cocka2 is just gone above the 'mystical' 150 DayMA.It's also recorded it's first half year profit of not much[$100grand]but still it's a profit that may lead it to Great Things.
Also seems to have refinanced itself over the last year or so and should now be financially capable of making the move from explorer to Producer.

These new share issues were at 33 and 36 cents so it's not like they are currently in significant paper profit leading one into a near term Profit Taking scenario,
The placement of $15mil at 36cents was to a single asian holder not a motley crew of 'sophisticated investors' so that's all right.


now,could it be that the recent downtrend has been 'fueled' by Flood Fear?That picture awhile back of the multi million $ "Backhoe' caught in 20feet of water down some pit was a "Fearful" image.Company involved in that lost Millions in Share Price Terms and I think that happened back then in the vicinity of the Cockatoo Mine Tenement Baralaba.

Baralaba is near Banana inland from Rockhampton.Seems to have only about 200 people in the town and it's claim to fame is Jason Hetherington Rugby League Bulldog comes from there.

Anyhow,Cockatoo has reopened it's Coal Mining because it's got this specialist coal grade for Blast Furnaces and COK is doing the"Lookout this stuff is the up'n'comer in coal exports let's get onto it."

Now I haven't checked but seeing as this is an ex coal area highly probably there's a near by rail line for easy shipping.Hopefully it hasn't been 'junked' in recent years.
breaker should know.Banana is just up the road from him.

All in All I see Cockatoo as possible GO.It's got that resistance nearby.It's got 'theory' going that a retrace to 150DMA should happen[37ish]
BUT a 37 to 43 is a 30%+ return AND it mightn't stop at 43.
Big Forward Order negotiated with one of it's Substantial Holders?could get one a Rocket Ride!!

cheerio.


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jimmyswell
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Sunday, April 04, 2010 - 04:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If we're avoiding code jokes, thank goodness there's no Centamin Egypt thread (snicker, snicker). That would be worth a month's suspension.

(Message edited by jimmyswell on April 04, 2010)







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breaker_1
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Sunday, April 04, 2010 - 05:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



COK near Moura CQ, plenty rail lines,ect


When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





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bridog
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Wednesday, April 07, 2010 - 02:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have only done superficial research on COK but it seems they have a resource of 474 mt of a mixture of thermal and PCI coal. Sales reported 2/3 thermal coal. With a market cap today of $235 m, this gives a value of 50c per tonne resource. Excellent value. Compare this with Bandanna Energy with a resource of 1150 mt thermal coal and a market cap today of $291 m = a value of 25c per tonne. Compelling value! Values of MCC, NHC, WHC $1.50 - $2 per tonne.

As a note of caution, Iím not sure whether the stated Cockatoo resource is for entire projects or the companyís share of the projects.


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jimmyswell
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Thursday, April 08, 2010 - 06:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Cockatoo appeared on my scans today, having piled on 10% this week so far. Good early selection by Jaded.
c


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jaded
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Thursday, April 08, 2010 - 07:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



jimmy,wasn't able to get on at 39 cents.should of bought yesterday's close[40] but was distracted.
besides it was eblode who pointed this out to me.

bit wary of the gap.are you buying it,jimmy?


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jimmyswell
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Friday, April 09, 2010 - 09:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No, I missed this boat.
My buy point would have been Monday somewhere around 38c but I didn't have time over the weekend to go through the long list of candidates. I did make some money from COK and CZA a few years back when coal was a hot topic.


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jaded
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Sunday, April 11, 2010 - 08:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



When you 'miss the boat',jimmy do you keep a lookout for retrace?
Cockatoo has just gone over the Weinstein 30 week/150 days line of uptrend.It's gapped and has significant percent gains this week but is it for flying into blue sky and never going to be subjected to profit taking retrace?

I don't think so.Cocka2 has some good fundamental elements.
It's producing 'high end'/desirable coal [just like MCC does]All this fuss over the MCC takeover has brought the 'pilgrims' frothy over Cockatoo.
COK also has major finance in place/money in the bank for further expansion/mine set up.It shouldn't need to do some sophisticated investor placement some time this year.

But Jimmy it only made $100 grand 'profit' last half/qtr.While a profit is better than a loss.that's not much of a cash flow 'buffer' hey?Bleeding directors pay rise would eat a $100 grand.

Anyhow a chart-

Top orange line is Year High level about 52.
There's a triangle thingy[not very within strict triangle definition] but it 'targets' 13 cents which coincidentally brings the breakout to the Year High so I thought that was pretty 'neat'.

Anyhow,in a post above I postulated that the recent Floods in Central Qld had caused the COK downtrend and now,how about the breakdown of the Triangle from the 'rules'?

Now,COK was affected by the floods to the extent a bridge got taken out/cut off and they couldn't get their Coal out to Port/Railhead.For how long?Haven't found that out yet but I'm thinking at least 3 weeks/month.

So I'm concluding-
a]Gaps and Parabolic Rise/
13cents on 39/
33% coming up in about week should 'peter out' and we'll get a retrace possibly back thru the latest gap.

b]Also by end of April there'll be a Cash Position for Qtr statement and because of the flood/lost shipping this won't be too 'encouraging'.

c]Isn't there some Weinstein palaver about breaking and then retracing to bounce off the LT DMA?Also isn't that DMA suppose to go into uptrend not flat line still?

d]If this retraces from 50ish to low 40's there'll be a rush of sellers esp on news of actual low profits for Qtr.

e]This MCC 'impetus' to COK's SP will settle down.Like Cockatoo is not about to be Taken Over by the failed MCC suitors.It'll have to JORC up much higher Reserves of 'd'good stuff' before any thing like TakeOver rises up.

So that's what I 'predict' for COK,predict and am watching out for-A retrace into under 45[at least]by next week/ the End of April.
Steams thru into New High 52+?well I'll just have to adapt my strategy.

happy trading


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dennis_menace
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Sunday, April 11, 2010 - 01:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Shareholder update released to the market at the end of March. Interesting reading:-

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=COK&E=ASX&N=588293

Click on link to read it. Maybe you would like to add your interpretation of it?


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jaded
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Sunday, April 11, 2010 - 02:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



read this dennis-it's what caused the initial break over 150DMA and then the week's action.

Down in Daily Bread Thread we've been discussing points raised in this.
According to the last Qtr/Half report there's been more THERMAL coal than d'wonder PCI stuff being sold.
Seems February chief cockatoo 'said' it was going to be more PCI than thermal.
Question is When?
so we[bridog/cat lady/ and I]reckon that the next Qtrly due by end of April will,at least give us some indication?

but as I pointed out above Sales/Cash Flow/Profits will be also affected by the floods IF/IF production was disrupted for a month or so.

So the next Qtrly will be gone over chiefly to determine the ratio of PCI to Thermal in Total Production with the possible disappointment in Sales Volume giving a chance to buy on retrace.
I think in my case,End of April I'd be topping up rather than initial buying.
As long as the PCI percentage is on d'Go,like on d'Up'n'Up.

happy trading.


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jimmyswell
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Monday, April 12, 2010 - 07:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Jaded,

When a company hits my watchlist, it stays there for about a month. One thing I've learned the hard way from the weekly comp is that sometimes my selections would come good 2 or 3 weeks later. COK is on my APRIL watchlist, so I'll definitely be looking for a retrace (along with the other confirming signals).

Jimmy


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jaded
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Monday, May 24, 2010 - 06:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





Now I've this in the Weekly Comp and have a chart there with reasonings.I'm also using Cockatoo to illustrate alex,d'newbie on straight share Going instead of FX diddling.
This post is to explore the use of VWAP which some of you,old timers,may remember I campaigned for IC programme to incorporate some years ago.

Anyhow it seems all too difficult for Colin to include compared to say Fibionnacci Levels.He's probably working diligently on getting EW incorporated and has forgotten about VWAP.

So I've revived my interest in VWAP.It seems/may have more Practical Applications than counting Waves!!

Now one must be able to handle making an Assumption.The assumption is that Big/Smart Money/Professionals are Accumulating using VWAP as a Tool.

In Non Blue Chip Shares this is only able to be done by Assumption drawn by Price Volume 'Action' and that's right up VWAP's alley.

but it's Moving Average VWAP that one should go with.

Example Cockatoo-

I assume that Friday Significant Money came Buying COK ie Accumulating it.

Big Money doesn't Accumulate in a Single Day.No it takes several days/even a coupla weeks to Accumulate a BigBoy Position.

This 'method' is done when there is No Insider "Leak' of imminent news ie "They" don't know some wacko Announcement is coming tomorrow,the next day whatever so they ain't 'desperate' to Buy.
No,VWAP following is for when 'They' have identified a share as a Go,a Real Possibility so 'They' Accumulate.[Done all the high level FA work for you]

and we,even Ivor,know that "They" use VWAP combined with Algorithmic/Small Parcel Trading to do that Accumulation.

So I'm assuming this Action started Friday.It was probably a week or so before then but...well...I'm just Assuming Friday 'They' got back into it with a vengance.

Frankly I bought more on Friday to add/double down a previous 'dabble' so I admit my bias in this assumption.[BE at 41.5]

Anyhow VWAP Friday was .3855[I bought at 38] but note Friday's Close was Above VWAP DAILY.
Today's action VWAP'd at .4211

but the Important VWAP is the 2 day[Friday and Monday] figure of 39.35 cents.

It closed on the Day's Vwap but by including Volume transacted we have a VWAP 'rise' in the Average AND no retrace to the Most Volume Day Friday VWAP ie 38.5 cents.

What's it all mean or matter jr aka Jaded?

well,considering I'm making d'Assumption that there's Big Money Accumulating happening then I have the Figure 39cents[2 day average] to work a Stop Loss figure against.

Better than a Lower Low,agree?
Calculation of a Moving Average VWAP could provide a more 'scientific' trailing stop.COULD.

The most 'interesting' aspect TA wise re a VWAP Moving Average is for it to be used in all those Indicators that use Close based Moving Averages[MACD etc]

If it is found that VWAP consistently differs from Close Price?[3% in a day is significant in Maths Terms here]

well they[the Indicators only using Close prices] are being 'distorted' by not taking Volume at Price in to account.

I 'believe' that there are NOW High Price Programmes available to "Professionals" that provide VWAP Moving Averages.We,mere pilgrims,are being left with Old Tech and Old Wives/Husbands Tales about theories and methods from looooong ago.
'They" have progressed.It's different now but we still cling to theory and Method from the last Millenium Book Writers!!

Want d'Word?

it's because VWAP don't work so good with Blue Chip Top 100's.That's why it's not Demanded.
IMHO.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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maittlen
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Thursday, May 27, 2010 - 07:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday Jaded

What is VWAP?


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gdd3
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Thursday, May 27, 2010 - 09:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Maittlen,

To give D'jaded a bit of a 'break' of having to explain VWAP yet again here is a start....


Volume Weighted Average Price - VWAP
What Does It Mean?
What Does Volume Weighted Average Price - VWAP Mean?
A trading benchmark used especially in pension plans. VWAP is calculated by adding up the dollars traded for every transaction (price multiplied by number of shares traded) and then dividing by the total shares traded for the day.


Sum of the Number of Shares Bought x Share Price
------------------------------------------------ = VWAP
Total Shares Bought


Investopedia explains Volume Weighted Average Price - VWAP
The theory is that if the price of a buy trade is lower than the VWAP, it is a good trade. The opposite is true if the price is higher than the VWAP.

...if you want more..."Google" it!

Cheers
Dolphin


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jaded
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Thursday, May 27, 2010 - 11:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




gdd3 wrote on Thursday, May 27, 2010 - 09:36 pm:

A trading benchmark used especially in pension plans




????
it's used by Hedge Funds ie BIGBOYS.

VWAP= $$$'s transacted divided by Volume.

but "they' don't give Historic,even 5 or 10 days,Info ANYWHERE of $$$'s Transacted[at least to us,mere Pilgrims to MaMMon!]

pension funds use Compounding/Rule of 72 etc too.
Is that 'irrelevant'/too complex for ya too,dolphin,
to bother about?

I'm talking KEY Math Formulas of the Share Market and YOU,gdd3,'prefer' some Fandango of Higher Highs TAZ very much.

maittlen.Try and not do 10 word[or less] posts to me.
It's quite 'dicey'
like to me it shows Ignorance even DisRespect.

VWAP takes one into the World of Volume Analysis/Market Depth Reading/What d'.... BigBoys are Pulling.
ie a World that don't accomodate d'Innocent or Ignorant.

maittlen,just buy what they tell ya in d'paper to buy.

get back to me when ya've lost ya first fortune.

Hopefully I won't be here!!!

cheerio.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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gdd3
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Friday, May 28, 2010 - 12:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



D'jaded...there you go again...off on your high horse, on the defence all because you are assuming once again that someone is trying to 'poke fun at you'(my words!)...and I thought by answering Maittlen(or as you implied, d'Innocent or Ignorant)'s request for the meaning of VWAP by trying to get him to 'read/research' for himself...if not what you have written in this forum a number of times then even 'google' VWAP as I did to get him 'started' thus doing you a favour! I simply read this entry and thought I would save you the time; nothing more nothing less!

By the way, "A trading benchmark used especially in pension plans" is actually, word for word, what you will find in the introduction on the Investopedia Website once you have googled VWAP(look for yourself). Having said that, I am aware of the "irrelevent/too complex for ya, dolphin" info that you refer to because, for one thing, I have read most of what you have written in this forum on the subject. However, the point is it appeared Maittlen hadn't and I was simply trying to get him(to start) to do just that by saying in my opening remark in my post above...

"To give D'jaded a bit of a 'break' of having to explain VWAP yet again here is a START...."

I'll finish off here by saying..."D'jaded, give us a bit of a 'break'..."

Dolphin

P.S.1...Can't see the relevance or your comment "YOU,gdd3,'prefer' some Fandango of Higher Highs TAZ very much." to the subject at hand...but will take it as you meant it to be taken!

P.S.2...But I can see the merits in your..."Hopefully I won't be here!!! " statement!


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maittlen
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Friday, May 28, 2010 - 06:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday Jaded

Here is a longer post for you

jaded means having a steady flow of negative experiences, disappointment, and unfulfillment fed into a person where they get to the point where their anger circuits just sort of burn out and they accept disillusionment.
"The guy just sort of gave up on relationships. Jaded bastard."

Love Maittlen


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jaded
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Friday, May 28, 2010 - 09:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wiktionary definition of jaded-
made callous,cynically insensitive or even conceited by experience or age.

maybe 'cynically' could be interposed with 'clinically'?

maittlen look up PollyAnna and you may come to realise that the Share Market is an extremely Take ya Throat Out experience.
Airy Fairy Hopes and Dreams is what it feeds on.
Get Rid of these,go into d'Depths,Out to the Edge.

yes,dolphin I did 'appreciate' you saving me from replying.I just thought that the use of 'pension funds' demeaned my Work in VWAP as a New Age Method of doing Share Trading for Real.
A worthy 'indicator' compared to current Moving Average Theory.
This work,btw, is not adapted from some other 'experts' theory/method.
I'm doing it straight from my own head but,as you have a glimmer of,my head is a bit addled,conceited maybe?

little wonder when I do a 1000 words and get replies like What's VWAP!!!
PollyAnna,the whole Self Esteem is All 'thing' by the say under 55 'lot' is a mystery to me.
how you all got so conned by this concept.

yeah but I'm jaded and have a number of outside the Market Issues to resolve/handle.

I see the current Market as too 'wishy washy'.Selling into any and all rises that occur naturally or by manipulation.
I've got a lot of Angles specific to the Materials Sector but
[1] I personally don't want to devote the time every day 'nursing' Holds
[2] This VWAP matter with maittlen disheartens me from bothering to write about them

so I'm giving the Forum a miss for awhile til I feel like Giving/narrowing down what i got to what you all might Take.

Happy Trading.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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ivor
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Friday, May 28, 2010 - 01:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Jaded

Agree 100% with Dolphin - you take everything that's posted (particularly on your threads) too personally.
Most of it is meant in a light hearted way, and not meant to be offensive. A lot of stuff that offends is not even directed towards you. eg MSparks writes his little saying on the bottom of all his threads, same as you do.

And here's the thing - IMO nearly all the pilgrims are sitting with a paper loss after the recent market activity. Every time a share moves up, sellers move in to recoup part of their losses while they can. They're not profit takers, or sophisticated investors, they're mainly loss reducers. I can't see that its some type of orchestrated conspiracy.

However I, for one, would like you to stay with the forum.
You're an original thinker, come up with a lot of new ideas which are always interesting and often informative.
Often concepts that others don't even think of.

Regards
Ivor







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rockon
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Saturday, June 05, 2010 - 06:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A couple of news articles that the faithful have probably read but good for the lurkers. Courtesy of "Proactiveinvestors".

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/7652/mf-global-research-is-b ullish-on-cockatoo-coal-7652.html

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/7600/cockatoo-coal-lifts-bow en-coal-resources-by-204-to-1332m-tonnes-7600.html

I do not hold....cheers.

 
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