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GNS...Gunns Limited

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through April 03, 2011 » GNS...Gunns Limited

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gdd3
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Username: gdd3

Post Number: 883
Registered: 09-2002

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Wednesday, June 09, 2010 - 02:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Altho GNS has been discussed in the Long-Term ASX Topic a few times over the past year I thought I would resurrect it here in the ASX Short-Term Topic as its last entry was way back in 2007.

As you will see from GNS's chart below it has been on the decline for near on a year now largely due to unfavourable reports, rising A$(prior to recent months), profit downgrades and more particularly in recent times Institutional reshuffles and 'manipulations?'. Both B.of A. and D.B.S have been constant buyers over the past month or so but particularly late May. Throw in two Director resignations and the sale of their Hardware arm and you would be excused, as an average 'street' T/A trader, for getting a bit confused by its price action.

However, what I have refered to as "Institutional Manipulation & Reshuffle", seems to have been 'settled' and, technically, with the clear V-shaped bottom in place highlighted with huge volumes, and the breakout of a continuation pennant yesterday, all looks well for a move up to atleast a test of the 150EMA and 9 month downtrend resistance levels...~ 65c. I guess a close above 50c is probably the only last requirement, from a conservative traders view, with the proviso that she doesn't get back below 40c. See how she pans out, ay!



Cheers
Dolphin


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gdd3
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Thursday, June 17, 2010 - 01:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GNS...has performed 'perfectly' just meeting the 'initial' target area, and for me time to take some 'off the table'(as Ody would say).

However, where too from here? Whilst 65c was my first objective we could see this reach 68.5c in the very short-term and may be even a little higher but I'd be expecting if that is the case, and we get some consolidation between there and 61.5c soon after, we should start seeing GNS moving on towards the next 'band' target range(~85c) as she would have broken the 'shackles' of its descending trendline resistance. Hope some of you other I.C.ers have been on board as well!

Anyway, as I said before in the above posting, ..."see how she pans out!".




Cheers
Dolphin







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bib
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Username: bib

Post Number: 193
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Friday, June 18, 2010 - 08:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well done, turned out to be a great little pennant. What scan did you use to uncover that one?


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gdd3
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010 - 11:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bib...

Apologise for the late response to your post and thanks for your accolade.

GNS has indeed performed well but have to confess I feel a tad lucky to have been in there for the ride. You see, it did not show up on any of my 'trading plan' scans; I simply had noted its high volume on May 25th(highest for the year to that date)which is characteristic to an exhaustion sell off day, follow by another high volume inside trading day the next. I 'suspected' some sort of 'manipulation'(my interpretation only) was in play that I felt was confirmed by both switching of major share holders holdings etc leading up to these days(as pointed out in my first post above) and the trading action(and huge volume) upday on the 28th of May. I still monitored it until entry on the 9th of June, the day after what I saw was a breakout of the pennant...I simply used the 50% retracement of the 'breakout candle rule' for first exposure and then added on the 11th of June on further confirmation of breakout(once it went above the confirmation candle high). Projection targets were established as indicated in my first posting.

So you see Bib, sorry to disappoint you, no 'scan' was used to identify this one...just merely some backdated research on company announcements(primary shareholders disclosures and director resignations)to help identify what I think pre-empted the 'manipulation' of its share price and some very basic T/A observation and rules.

Have a good week.

Dolphin


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bib
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Post Number: 194
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Thursday, June 24, 2010 - 08:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A scan with slow stoch max 35 and c > 30dma would have seen the pennant forming. Looks like another one could be forming at the moment.


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gdd3
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Tuesday, October 19, 2010 - 03:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GNS...now 73c!

Been 'quietly' range trading and in 'accumulation' phase since our last posting APART from the last two day's which has produced a test of the top of the range(58 -71c) and just now a break above there with some conviction. This now should mean we see the mid to high 80's(as mentioned on June 17th) quite soon.

However, what really is of interest is if you refer to the Williams%R14 indicator and look at its present position and compare to say the MAY swing low you can note that there are similarities in the W-indicator pattern/characteristics. Sure, the lead up price action may not be so similar(remember the price action into that May low was clearly a 'stock dump'{manipulation} to buy at lower prices and I see 'normal' accumulation action going on in the period before last Friday's low)one can't argue that the next two trading day's after each of those lows is the same.

Looking again at the May swing low, what is really encouraging(when you consider our present position) is that the initial 'burst-up' in both price action and the Williams%R only represented ~ 1/2 the move to come in the next two weeks. Assuming this 'history' will very likely repeat the initial two sharp dominant candle day's will be repeated by a short-term day-trader 'profit-take' period B4 the main thrust up.

All this burb can be seen on the chart below...58c-71c range; resistance coming in in the mid/high 80's(range extensions...thick orange line); top blue line represents wave equality($1.03)and possible next target agter the 80's. I have also highlighted the two Williams%R periods discussed.

As I'm not yet in, I'm hopeful of a pullback towards the breakout zone.



Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. Shame, 1st wrote this about two hours ago, had to suddenly go out, and came back to see I hadn't pressed "Post this Message"...but all I have said is still unchanged, just 'staggered' its already gone to 82c!







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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 3924
Registered: 03-2003

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Tuesday, October 19, 2010 - 04:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My view of GNS Dolphin.
Bollinger Bands tightened before the breakout.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

 
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