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SFR and Study of Nearology

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through October 14, 2010 » SFR and Study of Nearology

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jaded
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 08:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Recently a share Sandfire[SFR] has risen from the swamp of penny status dreadful into Respectability.


Further a Major OZ Minerals[OZL] has taken a Substantial Holding in SFR of some 19%.


SFR is COPPER and gold,these two usually run in tandem but it's the Copper Strike that is driving the interest.

Because a Junior has brought interest from a Major,all other tenements around Sandfire have gone HOT.

Theory is that some of these also rans around SFR tenements MAY have equal/better Right Stuff so...well to develop SFR?one of these who have adjoining Tenements MAY get taken over etc.

See in minor material Explorers,Selling what they have is ONE of the things that bring a Penny to Greatness ie they don't have to raise the do$h to Produce,No they sell what a Big Boy NEEDS and thus Raise Capital instead of doing endless Placements to d'Sophisticated.

Anyhow,Nearology,being bordered on a Fabulous Find is how one finds a GOer amongst d'dross.

So here's a list of nearology to SFR

ADX[supposedly will soon float it's Mineral Leases near SFR to 'finance' it's main oil/gas game in Africa]

ALY;ARO;AUC;CYS;ENT;GTE;HOR;LSR;PEK;RHM;RNI;RRE;SFR;SRI;THX;TLM;UOE.

These all have tenements around SFR in the Doolgunna Region of West Australia.

Google Doolgunna+WA Business News and you should get some Gist about some of these.

Be Aware though that d'Boys have been real KEEN on these shares for at least a Fortnight ie some are really overbought and Over Rated

BUT above is a List of Shares that NOW the Market is really keen on.
You just have to be able to Play Pass d'Parcel.

happy trading


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Saturday, August 07, 2010 - 05:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nearology is not only having Tenements around a Known Discovery.That's all geology,stuff FActual about how seams run etc.
The List above covers all sides of the Sandfire Strike as well as tenements in the general vicinity.

Also in the general vicinity RIO has a Tenement.
Having one of the Big Three on the Block feeds dreams of takeover real soon etc blah barbque chatter.

Anyway the other Nearology is having Facilities Handy.Rail Lines connecting into suitable Ports for one thing.

Copper Mining from looking it up works on moving Concentrate in the Hundreds of Tonnes per DAY.
600 tonnes/day was quoted.That's a lot of bleeding Trucks!!

so Doolgunna[where the Strike is happening] has only Road Access.Something called the Great Northern Highway.No Railway.
It may well be a pretty spic Road but if it is?
well,surely they got the Caravan Nan and Pop Brigade cruising to Broome or some misbegotten Real Australia Paradise in the WA desert and Grey Nomads and 10tonne+ Trucks don;t mix!!

This puts this Strike of Copper bordering on d'Never Never gunna Happen,being actually Mined.
So pilgrims don't buy thinking you'll be Super Rich in the long term by exercising patience.

The List above is Pass d'Parcel Gear.Hit'n'Run.Don't fall in love with the Story.

Anyway,Copper is hot partially because the Resource Tax does NOT apply to it.....yet.
It's also a vital metal for electrical conductivity and the Chinese and Indians are Establishing/Upgrading their Power Grid so Voila we have DEMAND.

So Copper does have some attributes for Long Term Holding.You can see from Sandfire Chart how a 10center can turn into a $4+er in a year or two.

but maybe None Zilch of the companies on that list will DO it like Sandfire.
but any and/or all of them may provide a ride.

Go thru the list,check their charts,formulate possible entry prices.There's probably at least 3 months of Action in these shares.Maybe more?

I've picked HOR.It's newly listed,Fresh Meat with a proportion of their shares no doubt held for at least a year to minimise Tax.If so,then we have a Tight Register and I like that.

Happy trading.







" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 09:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Now the Infrastructure 'problem' of No Railway may be overcome by concentrating on the Gold Aspect.

Gold is transported in Ounces of course and can be done by Road or Air.
Of course a Railway can be Built if the Copper Discovery warrants it.That's partly what the Resource Tax is for,right?

The minor explorers are trying to prove up their Resource so as to be able to SELL it to a Major.They don't so much want to develop it themselves.Too much Capital required.No they want to Raise Capital out of on Selling their 'find'.

This is Why? they're scrambling round a Known Deposit of SFR's trying to extend it into their Tenements so the chances of a Buyer taking up their leases.

Thing is that the Gold is secondary,a Bonus to the Copper so we have a number of Gold Explorers "only" in the List.

Has anyone out there started going thru the charts of the 18 odd shares on the list?
Is anyone out there interested in this?or do you think "I've missed the boat.All these shares have taken off and I can't get in at the bottom so I won't bother"?

Remember you can just take a Slice out of a Trend NOT Ride it from Go to Whoa.The Listed shares will be volatile for months more yet.Results from the Lab will Rise and Fall them.Perhaps some Consolidation of viable Tenements will occur [ie Big Boys taking stakes in others than Sandfire]

Know that more than 20% Holding in a Company requires a Statement of Intention to TakeOver.Oz Minerals has ~19% of Sandfire.
Such Holdings are usually issued Directly from the Company NOT bought On Market for the simple reason that Direct Purchase/Placement provides Capital to the Company whereas On Market the money goes to Shareholders who Sell for their own capital appreciation.
Taking large Volume days as some Indicator of Big Boys maybe positioning for TakeOver is often quite 'Amateur' thinking,Barbque Babble.
A lot of such chat is happening over THX's recent price action but I won't go further into it on this thread.


By 'tracking' price action on this Copper Strike,one can find other shares 'doing' Copper and getting some clues on How they'll Go if/when they start Impressive/Viable Copper Grade Discoveries.

Like AQR,for example.BTW AQR has a Railway Connected and is a Tick d'Box on many aspects of Nearology

Anyhow I'll 'chuck' some charts up on some of the list later.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 10:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



These are the New Float candidates from the List.


AUC is listed for some 8 mths[note 150DMA kicking in]
I've read that some Drilling Results are Due but I haven't yet checked it's Announcements as to if these have already been Announced.


HOR has only Floated for a Week or So.Again I've done NO FA on this,it seems to have had a Stellar Rise from Issue Price so is probably still providing Stag Profits.Watching for it to 'settle down' or do a Higher High etc.



Although RNI has been listed for years,it only recently got 'transferred' to new Ownership and is a 'virtual' New Float IMHO.
Note the Price Action as an example of shares in the Nearology of Sandfire being Rocketed.


RRE got pretty exuberant Friday,hey?Retrace Candidate.

I'm looking for candidates on the List NOT in the stratosphere of Blue Sky but approaching All Time/Year High.

I can't take 18 positions[buy the lot of them]so I'm trying to discern 1/3 hopefuls to add to my Major Position[for me] in AQR.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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sway
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 11:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good reading Jaded, thanks

Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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sway
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 11:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded

As an aside, I'll let you in on a new secret predictive model I'm working on, which uses cyclone tracking maps freely available from http://www.bom.gov.au

So far, its telling me that market could soon go up (a lot or a bit), or down (a lot or a bit), or stay the same. It will definitely change next week, and if it doesn't, it will surely show it's hand sometime before the first cyclone of the 10/11 season. I'm loaded up on short S&P500 CFDs and long USD/Elbonian Grubnick currency pairs. The model confirms I will make (or lose) money with 50% certainty.

c

I'm also forming an elite insider group with a clever name. Would you like to join?

Cheers
Sway

(Message edited by Sway on August 08, 2010)


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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cat_lady
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 01:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



jaded
agree with sway, very interesting.
sway
is that a hint of satire I detect?
cat lady


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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jaded
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 01:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A knowledge of the Stars is essential if ya wannabe a chick magnet.Being able to do 5 minutes on a babe's star sign[because you're talking about her personal Pyche not just drooling over her physical attributes]
and if you can add in how you're compatabible?well....

But Scorpio rising in the House of Uranus is not a suggested 'line'!!

Anyhow,sway Nearology is a very important element in Investing in Penny Shares/Non Blue Chips.
In fact I reckon the Weather in proposed Tenements is a valid Nearology.Like being in the Cyclone Belt can have a major impact on Production ie Can you still OutPut and Deliver during the Wet Season?

Doolgunna region is somewhere 'near' Meekathra[whatever] I only know Meekathara from that song I been Everywhere so I don't really know it's Climatic Conditions.

Such a number of pennies being swept up in a Nearology Play is unusual.I'm especially 'glad' that these have all risen when the All Ords is so lacklustre and our Systems Experts still haven't re entered the Market.
Of course it also illustrates the Power of Minors for giving your portfolio some percentage gain ummphf.

Anyhow,here's some charts of Established Explorers on the sidelines near the Sandlife Strike.







note their proximity to the 150D/30week MA.
Also they have not joined the Rush so much as the new floaters and yet may still have possibilities of using their Sandfire Connection along with their Basic Past Business to go Blue Sky.

The last one,TLM is described as a "Blue Chip Explorer" whatever that means.It took over some ex-Sandfire Leases.
There's all these Mining Laws and Regulations that cause leases to lapse.So it's not a case of EX means Rejected,No good.

happy trading.

NB- I have done NO reading or FA on any of these shares.All comments are Assumptions and/or passing on 2nd hand gossip and journalist guff.So DYOR on any picks.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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sway
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 02:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




cat_lady wrote on Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 01:07 pm:

is that a hint of satire I detect?




Just a touch. I can only take so much.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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jaded
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 02:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



anyhow I've completed a break down of the list getting some clues on the lot by a DIY Grading.

First there's the 'sleepers' shares that may have tenements around Sandfire but have not as yet been descended upon.
ALY


This MAY have say a $1 target in it.Need to check out it's scenario or FA as you may call it.
Is it cash strapped in need of a Placement soon?
What's it's background business other than it's Nearology to Sandfire?like is it a Pure Gold Play with no liklihood of Copper Strike?

ARO


Are these 2 shares not really 'involved' in the SFR nearology Tenements? Is that why they haven't done d'Rocket,recently?
or have they not had the Publicity machine descend on them yet?ie sleepers

Need to find past Drilling Results and what their Proposed Activity this Qtr is going to be in the Designated Area of Doolgunna.

have something to cook so will further dissect the list...
later.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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azworkinit
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 08:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wow Jaded!, you have really gone to town on the research. I like that you actually may be interested in some crazy "theory" such as "Nearology". What a handsome little earner it turned into for me!. I'll be watching your newfound interest with interest. Rgds Az.


"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

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jaded
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 09:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



To complete my preliminary analysis of the SFR Nearology List.
Goers-these appear,at minimum checkout,to have some potential Go in them.
CYS


ENT and HOR already have charts put up on them.

LSR

retrace potential?

RHM

36+ in it?

RRE,SRI,TLM-again have been charted Above.

RRE Rubianna has an 'intersting' story to go with it.
RRE is the Materials 'play'/Substantial Holder/Director also heads a Large Electrical Contractor Firm.Seeing as we're talking Copper,the Electrical Conductor Material,I just find Serendipity in this Play.Better than it's Star Sign anyway.

As a Generality,these "Goers" have not Rocketed because of their Nearology to SandFire so they have more to "Go' in them,maybe?

in contrast have these ones Gone?

AUC-see prev chart.
GTE


THX


RNI-see chart above

These may appear to have Got Away but maybe they have the Goods that Sandfire Illustrates? One needs to consider entry in to these shares in particular 'carefully'.

Last two on the list are specialo cases
PEK



done some background on PEK before this Nearology Gambit came up.
With UOG


these two illustrate the 'problem' in using Nearology to winnow dross from maybe Potential.

If anyone is particularly interested in either of these two[PEK;UOG] more than any of the others Listed.I'm happy to discuss the Finer Points.

I wish to illustrate now a method of chart reading entry points on this class of share.


Simple two trend lines.One has been broken while the other sets a close stop loss possible Entry.
An'agressive' entry would be on using the second trend line as a 'control' a quick whiplash yeah or nay.
A conservative Entry would be taking the Time to Read Up on the Gist of the particular chosen share and holding off for a few days watching developments.

Anyhow,I'm getting jaded just trying to hold d'hoi polloi's hand.
One doesn't experience a 18 odd Nearology Ploy very often.
It's a metod/means used by d'Non Mechanical,Non Indicator Driven Traders.
It relies on taking a Position based on Events/Facts etc.It'd be really hard to BackTest such an Event.
Like Find it,recognise it from running some Fancy Programme.

One has to keep up with Current Affairs.Reason out WHY d'blazes have a group of shares gone Rocket[in some cases]

Anyhow.leave you to it'

nighty night.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Monday, August 09, 2010 - 10:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




azworkinit wrote on Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 08:55 pm:

I like that you actually may be interested in some crazy "theory" such as "Nearology".




adz Nearology has been a tool in Materials shares for Decades if not from day 1 of any Material Shares being listed on Any StockExchange.

In the past it was for the 'insiders'/pump and dump artists or the Geology Trade.
Now that we all have access to information and maps showing Tenements,nearology has become the common,garden variety pilgrim's tool.

All these Doolgunna outfits have had the added Impetus of the Diggers and Dealers Conference to bring them forward.That started on August 1st and go thru some charts and you'll find that date is 'significant' eg in THX.

With this PR over,it'll be interesting to watch this week's action in the List.I still consider THX was waaaay Overbought on a sketchy/scratchy 'Assay' of a single hole by Visual Examination.

Anyhow,the next Ramp will be based on the Quality of Management.The Barbque will be abuzz with Profiles and just general praise of CEO's etc.Management will be called by their first name or initials even nic name.
Posts will come out about phone calls or email replies to/from the Company etc etc.

I think that a lot of this spin is paid for by the Company itself.Posters are Organised not individuals at all but often just one PRer Freelance often with multi nics so they can vote their posts into the 'gold zone' and get their POV as being shown as 'acceptabe and credible'.

Anyhow,I await such Hype descending on AQR.
Are all these Doolgunna Pilgrims really into Copper?or just into pass d'parcel?
think it's the latter.

happy trading,azwokin on it.







" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 09:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So a run thru the list shows all have retraced somewhat from last week's Highs.This is understandable because the Hype from the Diggers and Dealers is over and the List shares are 'consolidating'/retracing.

I've whacked the Fibio Levels in some of these shares in charts below.With d'Fibs[the math system of vegetables/the Real World]it seems to all be in where you start and finish for the Range.
In these 4 shares I've chosen in AUC and RNI the 29th July,a date when the Sandfire area began popularly to enter d'pilgrims psyche
with CYS I took the start to be after a Trading Halt
and with TLM I went conventional Low to High.
charts





Again I have done no FA on any of these.
but AUC as a 8 monthish float 'seems' to have attracted interest,steady interest from it's Sandfire Nearology.
Similarly CYS.
RNI is an 'insiders' tip.Often mentioned in Articles etc.

While TLM [remember described as Blue Chip Explorer]also seems to be 'absorbing' steady money as opposed to Hot Day Traders.

This weekend another article came out on this area,Doolgoona I think it's spelt]I think it's in the Westralian,WA daily.Anyhow,there's a rabbit in there about some on the list mainly based on Who's the MD?Google it up yaself if you're interested.

My HOR 2 week listed

MAY have support formed at 20.5.Announced this week it's Starting Drilling.Results will be weeks away but I'm thinking to maybe start getting some using a close Stop like 20.5.

here's RRE's weeks action confirming the Evening Star Power as a reversal signal.Also illustrates how jumping in on a Rush can get you burnt.


I haven't charted up the others on the list.The above is illustrative of what happened in them as well I think the above contain the Best Go's MAYBE.
other than THX which I hope to post on in it's own thread later.

Happy Trading.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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