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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

IDL - Industrea

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through October 14, 2010 » IDL - Industrea

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hershy
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010 - 09:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Selling mining safety products and processes to China.
How could you go wrong ?
I have always liked IDL and now I see it is surging again.
If counting waves I would put it just short of completing wave 3 with wave 5 expected to take IDL to above 56 cents.
Et apres ? ATH perhaps.

Before you hop in, take a gander at my signature. OK ?





"It is highly unlikely God's plans for the universe include making you rich."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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espresso
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010 - 10:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Could those spikes be shoulders as well with the head in the middle!! Nice pick Hershy good luck







I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games.
26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed.
I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.
Michael Jordan

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jaded
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 11:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I see it as 'overblown' and up for a retrace by my calc 42centsish.

exponential line in place based on breakout price.This is the most confirmed by Hits line I could figure.Break Down of this?is the short term sellers Indicator to bail out at a 'peak' ie cause retrace,hit stops etc.
Will it happen today?
I find it interesting the date of Speeding Ticket Denial at my 42 cents 50% level.

Today's news of Debt Sorting Out is very FAvourable but won't [IMHO] prevent the Short Term Profit Taking from causing predicted retrace.

I'm watching it.My type of Materials Involved Go.
Thanks for bringing it to my notice.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 01:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



real time 'report' on action-
Not retracing,only hovering.
Facing the question Will I BUY today?
I decide NOT.
I need to give no thought as to whether to Sell ie already Hold.My exponential line in above post gives my theoretical Sell points on a break.

In general IDL has a near Billion Shares on Issue[which i don't 'like'].
I've found no reason/news for this Price jump from the mid 30's so have not found why this won't retrace.
I want to avoid Buying the Top on a share that may well be being 'played' by even T3 Traders.
I'm yet to check out the Barbque for reactions there.I find certainly that a cynical reading of d'Hot2Trotters/Up Rampers gives me much more insight that projecting Wave Patterns.
One gets the Gist/Psych of probable Top Buyers for one thing.

So going into the afternoon session-Watch for down Close/Break under the exponential.



" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 01:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



up2date/time chart

price on d'Border Line


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 06:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



well I calculate today's breakdown trading as under 46 [which did NOT happen]
Tomorrows is 47.5 as break of the exponential [today's close]
So it's getting "Toppy" in terms of an initial buy and perhaps for considering selling a Hold.
Down the BBQ I learnt that IDL can be shorted and it's claimed a third of the last few days Volume is open on the Short List.
Also a 'classic' upramp encouraging Holding over Selling has appeared in the term- Takeover Target,maybe?
No Substantial Holders notices have appeared during this run but I don't know if there's been previous TakeOver 'offers or murmuring'.
All I reckon is that if/when that exponential trend line is broken?The TA based short term traders will SELL to the point of a Dumping Rout ie they won't be counting waves and thinking I'll hold for the Wave count to confirm whatever.

Anyhow,I didn't buy initially today and would have got 'skittish' to Sell if I'd held from earlier.

Prediction/Reading-Retrace probably on by Friday with a 42 bounce maybe next week.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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hershy
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 09:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Jaded
It's been a while since we've engaged in a some banter.
I always find your comments interesting, you are a true savant of the bourse. Possibly much more interesting than my wave talk. I trust you will bear with my while I expound my views. I shall make then brief.
Wave 3 as we all know is the longest wave of a 5 wave impulsive move. By my measure, wave 3 is targeted a few cents above yesterday's high, close enough for me to accept that it has reached target. I agree with you that a retracement is on the cards. How large that will be is anybody's guess but as long as the low it hits is above .365 the wave pattern lives. Generally speaking wave 4 is equal to wave 2 which suggest that a retracement should go to around 44 cents. Then wave 5 supposedly resumes the uptrend with a move that is generally the equal to wave 1.
So if the next two waves pan out, I am looking at a target at around the 54 cent mark.
I don't know what is driving this sudden surge. It could well be manipulation.
Me, I'm just enjoying the view - with a rather small holding.


"It is highly unlikely God's plans for the universe include making you rich."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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jaded
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Thursday, September 30, 2010 - 09:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry hershy this wave stuff is getting waaaaay beyond me.
What triggers the start of count? What makes a Wave 1?

I just can't get passed that it seems it is[in your case] completely arbitary,shoved on to past history with a proviso that 'prediction quality' needs Confirmation.

Anyhow,hershy I thought ya won't suppose to use ya Waves on shares lacking a wide base in trading?

but Hershy,I have thought of something 'Wavvy' for you to contemplate or confirm/deny textbookwise.

I think I see you wave exponents measure moves linear ie a move is expressed in Cents as in wave3 went 23 cents so wave 5 should do 23 cents or better.

Now I think you are trying to take the Pulse a la Elliot Wave Theory and I wonder if you shouldn;t be considering PERCENTAGE over only cent total?

Do you follow,Hershy/Chocolate Bar/Maaaate?

Percentage change at a higher level start would be 'considerablely' different to straight Cents.

but maybe Elliott don't say so and I'm making a dill of meself questioning d'Great One[s],hey?

Back to IDL


Still hanging in on d'Mainline BUT it is Friday tomorra.
Volume 'adequate'.[approx 1% of Total Shares]
Who's the Fool?Sellers or Buyers?
Will it go On and Upwards?
or d'other ding?

Maybe tomorrow will tell?
Exponential Intact requires a close Friday at least 48+.
Probably 50[new high] needs 'action' in tomorrows trading.

can't see it myself.
by the way hershy do you hold this from earlier?

cheers


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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hershy
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Thursday, September 30, 2010 - 10:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Jaded
Elliot waves is counted in cents but size of waves often relate to Fibo ratios but not always. As you know nothing in life is certain,'cept death & taxes. And lets face it, just like waves, life requires confirmation. You never know till you wave up if you will actually live to see tomorrow. And if you wake up, you've confirmed you are alive but if you don't, well then you know that you were wrong. Not entirely different from wave theory.
The way you identify the start of a setup is by finding a new low or a new high. The first move before a retracement starts is wave one. Generally speaking and I am really finessing this argument when the retracement is done and the trend resumes, this would be wave 3 and this is the longest wave and it is THE wave you want to surf. It will be 1.5 to 1.618% times the size of wave 1.
In other words look for a new low, one that you are sure that is a low. If you are not sure, move on.
Follow the zig up, wait for the end of the zag down and hop on the next zig up ala Zoro only sideways. You, clear as mud, so simple, even a junior master chef could handle this.
There are exceptions. Lots of exceptions.

I did have IDL before and sold too soon. You know the usual story, aim for a target sell whet it hits just to see the blighter soar on to greater heights. I think from memory I made a very small < $200 profit. Hopped back in @ 375 cents 3 weeks ago when the top of wave 1 - the zag was passed, my first venture of late. Looking for 52 cents with a small parcel to get my confidence back.


"It is highly unlikely God's plans for the universe include making you rich."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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jaded
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Friday, October 01, 2010 - 04:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hershy,
in part we've been discussing whether to enter IDL at these levels.At least that's what I've been doing while you are just hanging out for 52 cents.


My exponential line has been broken today.Glad I didn't BUY this week.I'll leave you Hershy to make your own Sell decision and hold hope for your 52.

Here's another one for Buy Deciding next week.This has risen on Significant News and also has Limited Shares on Issue compared to IDL.
In PEK's case our roles are reversed.I hold from 18cents but have held off selling because well Stay with the Trend Philosophy.May well be much more in it and there's no way to exponential line this one..so far.


Do you think,Hershy we need to open a separate thread?
After all we are discussing a similar position to IDL's; that being Buy Decisions in Hard Runners.
Has one missed d'boat or just found a Higher Flyer?

happy trading


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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peterloh
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Friday, October 01, 2010 - 04:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded,

It has always been an issue when we miss the initial break out. My normal strategy is to wait for it to retrace to where the breakout was. Sometimes, the point was so far away, I would settle for 50% of the retracement. Dolphin is very good at this.
I hope he has the time to comment on this.
Cheers,

Peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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jaded
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Friday, October 01, 2010 - 07:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



peter,
you mean that dolphin has a method[the TAZ] to indicate a Entry point/price.
I'm more into whether one should bother.
Is there a Go/Gain in buying after the Rush/Rocket?
Calculation of Reward,peter.The probability of Reward in this particular share.
Dolphin is welcome to do a TAZ finding calculation of Entry Price.
I imagine it'll mirror a Guppy countback which would be Wednesday's Open in PEK's case.I haven't really finely checked but I don't think today topped Tuesday's Close either.

Thing is,peter I try to go Micro on a particular share.Not that interested in a General Signal because I don't hold a multiple of positions.Switching and Changing my picks.I'm trying to Minimise Failures/Losses.I don't agree with the 50/60% failure rate is the expected Traders position in life.

True I'm not trying to make a Living from Trading.Needing to make a nut of $x every week/month.I prefer to develop a simple system of criteria for identifying which shares I put my money down on and peter making a higher high ain't on my dance card.

anyhow,i was 'amused',peter by your call on SAR especially because it was not fallen angel material but on a long started up trend.
Are you,peterloh,coming onside with me that near or in Blue Skyers at Year/Alltime Highs may be d'Best Bet?


happy trading.

(Message edited by jaded on October 01, 2010)


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Friday, October 01, 2010 - 07:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Amendment/Edit


Close Up does show today as a Higher High in Open/Close Terms [not wicks]. Personally I do VWAP's daily and in running moving averages.
I've babbled about VWAP as a method ad nauseum but everyone never commented on this or showed any interest in it whatsoever.No they preferred Mysticism and/or Wave Counting to learn/know about.
That's OK you ain't read about it definitively in some book so how can you be expected to investigate it off ya own bat?

yeah i'm a bit 'bitter' about d'VWAP response here but that's alright I can use it 'privately' as an 'edge' until some book comes out for you to do 'catch up'.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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hershy
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Friday, October 01, 2010 - 09:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have from time to time said that a line chart, like an X-ray can tell a lot about a chart that due to a lot of "noise"may not be so easy to decipher.
I bought 5000 shares of IDL based on the line chart below.
I spend little time charting these days but I tend to look in once in a while and I always liked the "idea" of IDL. With all the mining accidents in China and increased mining activity there how could a product like IDL's mix possibly miss? It really is selling shovels to gold miners, is it not ?
So I know IDL has dropped and suddenly I notice the drop seems to has stopped and consolidation seems to be taking place. Next time I open my charting program I see IDL has just broken out of the "accumulation"zone and wants to go north. So here is my rationale:
I see two resistance levels close to each other just above the price action and think resistance will become support after breakout. Tick.
I see a move from a low of 25 to a high of 36 and think there is potential for a similar or large move from the low of the consolidation move. Tick.
I also see a double bottom that place a target move above the double resistance lines just above. Tick
I calculate my target as at least equal to the 11 cent leap from 25 cents but thinking Fibonacci (or Elliot if you prefer) I think maybe 11 cents x 1.5 or better yet 11 cents x 1.618. That givse me a targeted move of between 16.5 and 17.5 cents take from the double bottom which seems to be the new low. Target is now 48.5 or 49.5 cents. Tick.



My target has now been reached. I should sell but I get greedy. I think so far the Elliot wave have been spot on, lets give them the chance to fully do their stuff.
A close below 44 would see me sell just to give me money for a bear or two but if that level holds the another move of 11 cents is expected. Tick.
And isn't it awesome that this target would create a new high ?

Now IF this 5 wave pattern completes a 3 wave correction is expected next. There is no way I will hold through that.
My contingency sell order at .52 cents has been already sent to the broker.

Just checked my ledger, on my last trade in IDL I made $795 but it could have been 1o time more had I had guts. I didn't think it was that much.

BTW I asked my wife the name of the new German doctor that seems to be driving me crazy.
She told me his name was Alzheimer.
Boom boom.


"It is highly unlikely God's plans for the universe include making you rich."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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hershy
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Friday, October 01, 2010 - 09:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry, I forgot PEK.
Don't like it any more..

I think the 3 corrective waves are washing over us.








"It is highly unlikely God's plans for the universe include making you rich."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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hershy
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 07:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



And out today @ 44.
Enough to take the family out for dinner.


"It is highly unlikely God's plans for the universe include making you rich."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

 
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