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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Beach Energy Limited - BPT

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through October 14, 2010 » Beach Energy Limited - BPT

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NIP - a reversal playpeterloh06-Oct-10  11:18 am
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rdumas
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Post Number: 4105
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Sunday, October 03, 2010 - 11:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As suggested by Dolphin I have cut and pasted the following post from my EWW thread for comment.


Unfinished Business

In my post 4068 of the 27th September I raised the possibility of BPT perhaps getting ready for a breakout. Not that I think that it is proving to be such a great stock but I did not want to leave it up in the air.

I do wish to raise a few issues. First of all is the problem that not all stocks are suitable for EW analysis. The only way to determine whether they are or not is to actually analyse them and see if they do adhere to the EW patterns. At this early stage it does appear as though BPT may be suitable but it's still early days.

Here is an updated intraday chart of the stock to show what has transpired since the last post.




In my earlier post I had expected that BPT would form a simple abc corrective pattern but it would appear that this was not to be as it is still clearly in a corrective pattern.

Subsequent to my previous post my friend Dolphin suggested that he would prefer to wait until a breakout into the low 70's took place before he would be interested. Whilst confirmation is always worth while it should be noted that the range of the preceding impulse wave was 10 cents. If we happened to have a wave equality scenario take place on any break out it would mean that we would have a target of around 76 cents. Hence to wait for a breakout of >70 cents from the 66 cent level would greatly intrude into the potential profits of the trade.

The things that I do like about the stock

First of all is that we have a 'bullish flag' in play at the moment. Now traditionally we like to see a flag that droops against the prior trend but parallel flags are still bullish from my experience.

Secondly is that we are currently in a corrective pattern. Corrective patterns occur against the prevailing trend therefore logic dictates that the trend that was in play prior to the corrective move must eventually continue. That trend was up.

The chart below shows the 3 day, 14 day and weekly W%R indicators. Note that the longer term weekly W%R is on an upward trend. The 14 day W%R indicator has come from an oversold territory and hanging around just above that area. The 3 day @%R indicator is showing some hesitation as the price action approaches the UBB.

Note that the BBs are starting to compress so an explosive move is in the offering in the near future.

Note how strong the 66.5 cent level has been for some time now. In my view that has formed a pretty solid base from which to attempt a move up. The upward crossing of the 20 day SMA above the 50 day SMA is also encouraging. The 150 day SMA (not shown) is currently still falling slowly but is showing a tendency towards flattening.




My only concern at present is what the overall market will do in the coming week or two and the effect that any drop will have on this stock. I do note however that when the XJO commenced its fall on the 15 April, BPT actually went up!!!

I should indicate that I did take a small position in this stock around the time of my earlier post.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Sunday, October 03, 2010 - 06:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Ah, the 'misunderstandings' of talking about different time frames...

You wrote..."Subsequent to my previous post my friend Dolphin suggested that he would prefer to wait until a breakout into the low 70's took place before he would be interested. Whilst confirmation is always worth while it should be noted that the range of the preceding impulse wave was 10 cents. If we happened to have a wave equality scenario take place on any break out it would mean that we would have a target of around 76 cents. Hence to wait for a breakout of >70 cents from the 66 cent level would greatly intrude into the potential profits of the trade.

Yep, I certainly said just that; I'd rather wait until we see a breakout of > low 70's. However I was talking about the potential shown in my posted Weekly chart(updated below)the same day and hence was looking for the possible move to the upper boundary of the 67c - 92c trading range once the 70c had broken, with the argument supported by the nature of two false breakouts. So whilst I agree with your short-term wave equality target count(76c) as the initial objective, if and when that happens, reaching tha objective should/could then favour a continuation, after short-term consolidation perhaps, of going all the way to the low 90's because we would have broken the long-term downtrend, broken the wkly Williams%R14 period downtrend resistance and above all 3 EMA's(52wk, 30wk and 10wk).

Certainly, nothing has changed except there is increasing evidence that BPT favours an upside move from here...how far is the only question so I wish you well Rudy with the trade(and me maybe, if we get above 70c).



Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. Last wk's action enabled the fast Wkly Williams%R(3 period) to 'kick-up' from desired levels, further evidence that the W's%R14 trend resistance is going to break to the upside, right!







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espresso
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Sunday, October 03, 2010 - 07:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All,
Not sure if you can see the monthly chart, however its also a good one to look at. On the daily i see accumulation as the MACD is above the zero however the price is just bouncing of support, and .70 cents would be a confirmation for me also, unless you know something more than the chart is showing - (maybe a takeover). The weekly also shows price stability with increasing volume, amongst other things. definitely one to watch depending on your trading/investing strategy.








I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games.
26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed.
I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.
Michael Jordan

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rdumas
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Post Number: 4112
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 10:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys,

Thanks for your thoughts. They are most welcome and appreciated. Ehmu on the EWW thread also agrees with you both about a 70 cent breakout confirmation being required. I guess that makes me young and impetuous.

Dolphin, I totally agree with your point about different time frames. I think that this single issue is one that leads to many misunderstandings on IC.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 10:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

In your weekend wrap you mentioned 4617.4 on the XJO as significant in invalidating one of your counts. It got to 4616.4 a few minutes ago and may go through soon.

Ken


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rdumas
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 10:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

I'll respond later on the EWW thread.

Cheers

Rudy


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 04:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

Currently this one is a dog, but I wouldn't bet against it.
The price of oil is over 80c now and they have a lot of shale gas reserves. when this one changes its tag, this one "may" fly. Like they say "every dog has its day", not that I have anything against a dog, I love dogs but not a share that wouldn't move.IMHO, I almost forgot I own them.
The fundamentals are there for everyone to see, they have no debts. I hope management wakes up one day to see that they don't have a job anymore, unless they do something about it now.SP is not everything, but the only thing.DYOR


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 06:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

I wasn't too worried with the technicals of BPT but am now concerned with the USA Oil & Gas Producers Index which may give us some indication of where BPT may head in the future.





Looking at the BPT chart in isolation though the 150 day SMA has flattened and hence it's possible that we are in a Weinstein stage 1 phase. Either that or the 'flatlining' indicates that the patient died on the operating table.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 11:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

I won't argue with you this one is a Weinstein's stage 1, no fear. As for dying on the operation table, it won't. Management will probably suck it dry instead, unless it explodes. It has too many things going for it and manage to start paying dividends, some sort of a bribe.Unless it found something really big, something to crow about, there are too many cuts in its body and the wounded have strong memories.IMHO, probably more on wishful thinking than anything else.The smart ones do not follow the leader, unless they see something which I haven't.

Cheers,

peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Post Number: 3864
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 11:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

With oil price going over $80, the US and Japan governments going to stimulate their economy at any cost, demand for oil will continue to move up.

BPT has recently broken its down trend and started to move side way, a sign of consolidation. Lately, the Bollinger bands have been tightening and I expect it to breakout on the upside any time now. IMHO

.







-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Post Number: 4142
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 02:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

I exited my position in BPT yesterday at my entry price. As I believe that the next move of any significance in the overall market is down, I thought that I would play it safe. Oil tends to follow the market market to a large degree. This is only a short term thing as I believe that any corrective move would be short lived.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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