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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

FOA for short sellers.

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through 2004 » Archive through October 08, 2004 » FOA for short sellers.

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mbike_freak
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Thursday, June 03, 2004 - 09:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Foodlands has just completed a top head and shoulder formation and has broken through the neckline and performed a pullback. Looks like a good one to short sell. I'm only new to trading so please correct me if im wrong on my analysis. inFoodlands h/sdi Also the momentum indicator is in negative territory.




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new2waix
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Thursday, June 03, 2004 - 12:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey MBF,

Welcome to the forum.

I was also looking at FOA (but on the weekly). I need further confirmation on where it is headed.

-- Ascending triangle, possible break down emerging? (down)
-- Strong correlation to Consumer Staples Index (XSJ), sector rising (up)



Waiting for now...








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mbike_freak
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Thursday, June 03, 2004 - 01:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good point on the sector i forgot to check that. Thankx for your input


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buy_stop
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Monday, June 21, 2004 - 12:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XSJ showing signs of weakness - divergence appearing on relative strength and it is poised to go below zero.



FOA looks like it is struggling to break trendline from March 2003 and resistance at $18.70. Depending what happens this week might lead to a great opportunity to go short.

Cheers

Buy_stop




Getting money is like digging with a needle. Spending it is like water soaking into the sand.

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buy_stop
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Tuesday, June 29, 2004 - 01:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sell stop order in at $17.95.....




Technical analysis is largely making a series of educated guesses that are based on reliable observations of past market behavior. Occasionally the guesses prove to be incorrect, and it is then the function of the analyst to adjust rapidly to the unforeseen developments.

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buy_stop
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Sunday, July 04, 2004 - 10:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Travelling beautifully.....




Technical analysis is largely making a series of educated guesses that are based on reliable observations of past market behavior. Occasionally the guesses prove to be incorrect, and it is then the function of the analyst to adjust rapidly to the unforeseen developments.

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greywolf
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Sunday, July 04, 2004 - 11:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi B-S,
I think the SHORT was missed @ $18.52 on the 22 June!
A turnaround may be imminent as the stock appears to be oversold on the Williams %R indicator! May be a BUY if it can get to $18.05 on Monday?
cheers



Keep this in mind; The Stock Market does not care what you or I think!

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buy_stop
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Saturday, July 17, 2004 - 12:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greywolf,

What is your present TTC analysis here?

Buy_stop


Technical analysis is largely making a series of educated guesses that are based on reliable observations of past market behavior. Occasionally the guesses prove to be incorrect, and it is then the function of the analyst to adjust rapidly to the unforeseen developments.

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muzza
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Saturday, July 17, 2004 - 03:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Guys lets remember the timeframes for our respective strategies.

FOA is still a Potential short on my intermediate timeframe system, which may not be as aggressive as other strategies - but with shorts I'm more cautious.

Here is my rationale:

Weekly Chart:

FOA1

FOA looks like it has the potential of falling out of a Weinstein Stage 3 into a Stage 4.

The 9Wk SMA is below the 15Wk SMA which in turn is below the 30Wk SMA. And, to add to the bearish sentiment the close for the last 3 weeks has been below a falling 9Wk SMA (all red candles - almost big enough to be "Three Black Crows" - which would be VERY bearish).

FOA as failed to break and hold above $20, so a fairly significant trend line can be drawn there - touched & approached 4 times without holding above. SO we can assume that this line is a good approximation for the 0% of a Fibonacci study with the low (100%) being Double Bottoms at $7.18

If these views prove to be valid, the next major potential support for FOA would be at the 23.6% Fib level, or using Support & Resistance, just below that level (the dotted red line) at $16.5 - So, a potential support zone between 17 & 16.5

If that zone is penetrated then in all probability its "bombs away".

Looking at some more detail to support my view that the potential to short this one is getting higher and higher.

Also Weekly:

FOA2

RSI is VERY bearish - H&S top, with the neckline decisively penetrated. - Look what volume did at the time the neckline in the RSI was penetrated - downside Volume Expanded - that is also very bearish.

It is good to recall at this stage that Momentum (e.g. RSI) turns and trends typically BEFORE Price action - RSI is still heading south.

Now lets zoom right out - this chart I think helps set a strategic price objective - also weekly:

FOA3

Here a fairly significant trend line can be drawn all the way back to 1995 - It is touched 4 times and approached once more. To me its the "Big Picture" trendline, and current price action is VERY far from this line.

So the short has potential (in my timeframes) to emerge in stages:

First if $17-16.5 is penetrated - Go Short.
The initial price objective would be around the 61.8% Fibonacci level - approx $12. Interestingly the long term support trendline intersects with the 61.8% level on or about 6th August. This gives me an approximate timeframe to watch the initial phase of the short (if it triggers).

Second, if the $12 level is penetrated - it gets VERY exciting as both a major Fibonacci level AND the long term trendline would have been violated.

If that happens FOA could be in for a crash of monumental proportions - to $7 or $5 if you zoom out your charts.

Of course it might just turn around and run north on Monday and NEVER trigger my short view.

Hope this adds value to a nicely argued thread

Regards


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new2waix
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Saturday, July 17, 2004 - 04:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Muzza,

Thanks for the tremendous analysis!

I agree that from a conservative medium (to long-term) perspective, that there are still some further confirmation signals required before taking a short position - however these are approaching very soon.

FOA has delivered some big moves before and have been watching closely for a while. Funny how CML & MTT are reaching new highs while FOA is looking very bearish.

Out of interest, how do you select your points for your fib retracement indicator? I've used the two extreme points -$21.05 (0%) and $7.10 (100%) which gives $17.76 as 23.6%.

Not knowing much about Fib Retracements, I am not sure how relevant my accruate my figures are?

Anyway, let's see what happens next week - surely some of the brokers will start calling this a strong buy soon enough? :-)




..


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muzza
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Saturday, July 17, 2004 - 05:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day n2w,

Thanks for the kind words - lets see how FOA unfolds, it could be interesting.

Regarding your question on how I select fib placements - I have read some articles on this, but I must admit the approach that I take is simple. I try to look at where I would place a s/r line, and that indeed is subjective, like many aspects of TA.

I try to look at how big the shadows on candles are relative to the real bodies - that is why my 0% level was actually penetrated on the upside which didnt hold - signifying to me that bull/bear sentiment was very volatile - I averaged the level as I would have with a resistance line (that picked up plenty of previous tops).

(Without taking the following comment to silly extremes let me also add that for this timeframe & type of analysis the real body - open & close - are far more important to me rather than the range - especially on weekly charts).

Similarly at the double bottom (100%) I didnt include the whole length of the shadows.

Your approach is equally valid - I have see many fibbo pundits include the entire shadows at either extreme.

To me Fibbo's just give us levels "at around" which we should watch for action, without the levels needing to be hard and fast absolutes. Therefore somewhere between your level of 17.76 and my less aggressive entry of 17/16.5 we should be very watchful of FOA.

Hope I didnt rave on too much trying to explain subjective positioning.

Lets see what happens.


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buy_stop
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Monday, July 26, 2004 - 10:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Retest of $17.33 support in progress......




Technical analysis is largely making a series of educated guesses that are based on reliable observations of past market behavior. Occasionally the guesses prove to be incorrect, and it is then the function of the analyst to adjust rapidly to the unforeseen developments.

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greywolf
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Tuesday, July 27, 2004 - 12:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BS,
Sorry missed your question in post of 17 july, only just saw it tonight!
TTC buy in early july never happened as price just kept dropping.
TTC SHORT of today never happened either as price fell below the trade price of $17.59.
Wheres the next support level $17?
cheers



Keep this in mind; The Stock Market does not care what you or I think!

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muzza
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Thursday, July 29, 2004 - 08:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gentlemen, are you still watching this one?

Today's close = $17.45

The week is'nt over but check out the RSI on this weekly:

FOA4

Pretty bearish H&S formation in a momentum indicator, and T/A theory suggests that momentum turns before a turn in price. Notice how RSI retraced to the (violated) neckline and bounced south off it.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring or maybe by the end of next week?

The ask for a Dec 17.00 put is tempting, but rules are rules and it hasnt triggered on my system yet. While I think about it DEC may have too much time value, better check the CFD list.

Did any of you go short? N2W ?

Regards


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buy_stop
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Thursday, July 29, 2004 - 11:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Muzza,

I am short here since my stop was triggered @ $17.95

Excellent analysis on your part!

Keep up the good work!!

Cheers

Buy_stop


Technical analysis is largely making a series of educated guesses that are based on reliable observations of past market behavior. Occasionally the guesses prove to be incorrect, and it is then the function of the analyst to adjust rapidly to the unforeseen developments.

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new2waix
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Friday, July 30, 2004 - 12:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Muzza,

I've been a little hesitant to short anything in the 'Retail' sector with a few stocks nearing new highs and others announcing record sales (CML, MTT, JST, PBG, CDO etc etc). FOA announces 4th quarter sales figures in August.

Saying all of the above, Buy_Stop's entry @ 1795 would of been good entry. The more conservative may wait for a break below 1745. The trend remains down and mid 16's seems likely.

A break above ~1780 would be a break of the downtrend.

Good luck!





..

(Message edited by new2waix on July 30, 2004)


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zzsmidav
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Tuesday, August 03, 2004 - 08:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all

As a novice I'm appreciative of the many great posts. Thanks.

With reporting season here I've got a couple of questions.

1. Would u go short with an ex-div date approaching ?

2. Where do u find out the ex-div date ?

3. Are expected results already being factored in prices ?

Thanks again


Regards
zz

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perler59
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Tuesday, August 03, 2004 - 09:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dividend search:
http://tools.afr.com/apps/qt/quote.ac?sy=afr&code=FOA&section=dividend&submit=go


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buy_stop
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Friday, August 13, 2004 - 11:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Range bound.....3rd attempt at 17.33....




Technical analysis is largely making a series of educated guesses that are based on reliable observations of past market behavior. Occasionally the guesses prove to be incorrect, and it is then the function of the analyst to adjust rapidly to the unforeseen developments.

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buy_stop
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Sunday, August 22, 2004 - 08:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...and through $17.33 we go!




Technical analysis is largely making a series of educated guesses that are based on reliable observations of past market behavior. Occasionally the guesses prove to be incorrect, and it is then the function of the analyst to adjust rapidly to the unforeseen developments.

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muzza
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Saturday, August 28, 2004 - 06:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



How is the team viewing FOA now ?

Weekly:

foa5

Its inching closer to my short confirmation level, but taking a bit longer than I thought it might.

Question: Does an inside week have similar significance to an inside day?

If it does, then we have just completed a week of indecision and the fate of FOA will soon be revealed.

I havent been around for a week or so - its seems to have been very quiet on the forum lately?


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buy_stop
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Tuesday, September 14, 2004 - 12:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Will be interesting to see if it can hold $17.38




"If you can count your money, you don't have a billion dollars"
- J. Paul Getty, US oil industrialist (1892 - 1976)

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it in your pocket"
- Kin Hubbard (1868 - 1930)

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mbike_freak
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Wednesday, September 15, 2004 - 06:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi foa seems to be doing well. Was just wondering which brokers are being used to enter short positions? Do you know of any online brokers that offer short selling?? If not why not wouldn't it be relativity easy to set it up? Wish i could short sell would've made some money. Happy trading guys take it easy.


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muzza
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Wednesday, September 15, 2004 - 10:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Guys,

I seem to recall a snippet that FOA announced good results, NPAT up etc which could be why it kicked up, - but those numbers were based on extraordinary items, namely the sale of some property assets. Revenue from core business is actually down as I recall.

I'm a bit busy on other things right now to confirm - N2W if you are back from wherever you are (so few posts from you in recent times) maybe you could confirm?

Lets see how the market reacts over the coming days.

regards


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buy_stop
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Friday, September 17, 2004 - 11:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Has well and truly held $17.38, smashed through $18.00 and closed at $18.28 - helped no doubt by some short covering (including the liquidation of my own short interest).




"If you can count your money, you don't have a billion dollars"
- J. Paul Getty, US oil industrialist (1892 - 1976)

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it in your pocket"
- Kin Hubbard (1868 - 1930)

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new2waix
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Saturday, September 18, 2004 - 08:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A little disappointed with this one - seems to have bounced off support...

I became a nervous when FOA started consolidating around 1700:
1) Historical support
2) Long-term Moving Average
3) Psychological level (00)

Obviously a break below this level would of been great, however seems as if the bulls are back (for now). There has been a bit of media attention over their recent results, so there is a chance this is only a short-term bounce.

Watching 1700 for now...



I have drawn three horizontal red dotted lines roughly indicating the pivot (or swing) points. A breach of the downtrend (resistance) and the swing low (3) signalled an exit for most?



..


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lightsaber
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Friday, October 01, 2004 - 05:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hope you got out Waix ;)
Strongly looks like end of downtrend now, dont you think?

Perhaps beginning of uptrend, got in at 18.18 the other day.

Interestingly the small price correction on Monday Sept 24th (from 18.60 to 18.00) occured after the announcement from UBS about increasing their share holding from roughly 7% to 9%. So this probalby helped with the recent price burst to take it out of the downtrend.


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new2waix
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Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 01:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Went ex-div 53 cents on 27 September. Where will it go?




..


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lightsaber
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Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 02:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks for pointing that out waix, dunno how i managed to miss that.
I've been looking at the ex-div lately on stocks and seeing if they bounce back soon or immediately after the ex div date, have noticed this could perhaps be interperted as a bullish signal if the crowd ignores the extra candy of the dividends and keeps buying. anyone else think the same?

two simple examples, NAB continued to go down after ex div then plummetted. CPU kept trending up through ex div date and continued to rise further. havent done any exhaustive study on it, just what i've noticed.

obviously the yield of the divvie will have a direct affect on the weight of the signal.







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perler59
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Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 06:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



CEY is another example of this. It went ex div on 17/9/04. Gapped down and them took off like nothing had happened. Its now forming an ascending triangle under $4.00

CEY


I can NOT control the markets, so I MUST control myself.
US Stocks 15-minute delayed

 
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