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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through June 03, 2010

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Trading Action Zone Set-ups! » Archive through June 03, 2010

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maittlen
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Username: maittlen

Post Number: 24
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010 - 06:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday Dolphin

I know thanks does not buy you a beer but thanks again.
I will head to the charts and have another look.

All the best


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prater64
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010 - 08:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




gdd3 wrote on Wednesday, April 14, 2010 - 12:30 pm:

Just as a matter of interest, would you mind sharing/explaining your Trading Action Zone(T.A.Z.) set-up criteria for us here; why you prefer the 7daySMA and how you 'marry' the Williams%R3 with your "ADX trend confirmation" tool(I'm assuming DMI 14period)by may be using the ESG stock as an example? Now I've got my own ideas but I'm personally interested in what you see is the T.A.Z. and what you are looking for. Also, I find when using the Williams%R3, or any 'fast' indicator, you must use another 'slower' momentum indicator(in my case W%R14...because the 'format' is the same) and accept your use of the 'slower' DMI(if that is what your using) but I can't quite see how you are 'marrying' the two to provide the 'triggers'. For example, you said you got a T.A.Z. signal on the 12/3 for PXS...please explain! And/or use any of your other examples, if it will help you to clarify your use/interpretation of the T.A.Z.

An honest enquiry so no offence is intended or taken I hope.




Hey Dolphin, no offence taken at the questions. Firstly I am paper trading at the moment as I have mentioned to jaded in other posts (newbie trader in other words).

As to my TAZ conditions. I am currently using the set up from Craig's page re TAZ. From his checklist this is what I currently am looking at;

7MA > 30EMA > 150EMA - Was bouncing between 200EMA and 150, but decided to go with the 150EMA as I moved to the 7MA. The 7MA is mainly me looking at having price action drop into the zone. Most of my scans were not showing the price moving lower than the 10MA and I thought I would see how the slightly faster moving average worked out.

Craig's checklist uses the W%R3 day rather than the 14 day for set up. So a -80 indication is used no the short term indicator.

I use the ADX to help identify those stocks that are in a strong uptrend. At present I am using it set to 14:15:25. Problems so far revolve mostly on missing set ups early when the ADX is below the stock scan threshold (15 at present).

The other criteria are the pullback (ideally three days) and a quick check of support levels on the yearly chart or longer (eg 5yr or 10 chart) if no identifiable pattern exists on the 1 year chart.

Entry is made with the bullish candlestick pattern trigger and or trading over the previous days high. I also ideally look for increased volume as well. I have looked at a couple of setups without the increased volume but I am bit sceptical of those and so far haven't followed them much.

Ok onto PXS; This is the chart as I saw it leading to the 12/3 and after (with 20/20 hind sight)



Yearly chart showed a support level at around $2.70 after what looked to be a previous head and shoulders (Nov 09 - Feb 10). The 3 month chart looked liked this;



15/3 saw 7MA cross the 30EMA with both above the 150EMA. This also corresponded to a +DI/-DI crossover and a continuing +25 ADX indication. No indication was shown to me at this point that matched the entry criteria above so it just sat in my watchlist at this point. On 01/04 it peaked and started the retrace with consecutive lower highs (6th & 7th being same high). Volume during this period was also decreasing and W%R:3 pulling back to -87 on 09/04. On Mon 12/4 the candle engulfed the previous candle and traded over the high of the previous day. It also had an increase in volume on this day as well.

For exit strategy I am looking at a trailing stop (2 days previous low) with an exit if close is below the low. Also at loading up at break even points (ie at first break even load up by same amount and so on as per Chris Shea's book).

So thats the insight into the mud that is my thought processes on this one. I hope I answered the questions you had, also feel free to shot holes in any flaws that you may see about how I've been using the plan.

Cheers
Prater







"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one. You just like the look of some more than others."

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palace
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Thursday, April 15, 2010 - 11:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi dolphin yesterdays chart for RTL

unfortunately ,still a little gun shy ,but was watching

around 3.6/3.7/3.8 ,finally put my order in at 3.7 when it

was 3.7/3.8 almost got hit hit ,(i am probably top of the

list or close or was )before it took off ,such is life

but good luck ,mick



(Message edited by palace on April 15, 2010)


C:\Documents and Settings\Michael\Desktop\flying pig.gif

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gdd3
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Thursday, April 15, 2010 - 01:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey thanks, Prater, for sharing and taking the time to explain your 'tweeked' version of a T.A.Z.(potential)Trading set-up...well done!

Not for me to "...shoot holes in any flaws" in your version, especially when you admit you are in a learning curve and just "paper trading at the moment". Having said that, please let us know how it pans out once you do start trading and use it.

Some comments though....re:- use of Williams%R's, initially(abt two years ago) when I first started looking at the T.A.Z. method, Craig advocated using both the W%R14 + 3 day as his prefered oscillator supports, he then started to advocate the DMI/ADX as an alternative with an additional explanation along the lines of "...it doesn't really matter what momentum oscillator as this is only used as a support criteria to the other more important ones". I guessed this was said to 'cover' the fact that he was modifying some of his criteria as the T.A.Z. was being developed and/or as a result of 'feedback' from fellow TAZer's. I guess my point was that one should not just use the Williams%R3(as its far too sensitive) but use it in conjunction, or marry, with another 'slower' indicator. Some T.A.Z'ers here on this thread had been using the 3day only + say a 3 day retracement or simple a +ve cross of the 10/30MA's.

Secondly, you explained your stop strategy once the stock moves favourably(in the +ve) but I'm assuming your initial stop is as as Craig suggests...below the set-up bar day low (in PXS's case maybe below the engulfing candle low, right!).

Speaking of PXS...glad you explained how , as you said,... "PXS : TAZ signal on 12/3 may still get in possibly" because I took this as meaning that PXS had given a T.A.Z. set-up signal on the 12/3 and hence why I asked you to explain...you see on that day your Williams%R3 was above 0% and I was trying get an explanation on how you were using this in conjunction with the ADX. I had also looked at your ESG to try to clarify your claim that it also had shown MANY T.A.Z. signals by using your tools but could only come up with one( assuming you meant since the late Feb. swing low). The only one I could see was Mar.31st...so this didn't help me understand how you were using your tools for 'entry/confirmation'. Anyway, Prater, you've explained it beautifully....on PXS at least!

Work in progress, right ....as we should always view our "learning curve" and "trading".

Thanks again and good "trading".

Dolphin

P.S. I can see how the use of a 7day or even as I suggested, a 5 day SMA would have helped with a set-up entry on say the 'junior' Iron Ore stocks since there Feb lows instaed of the traditional 10SMA. Maybe we should consider using a 5SMA with 20EMA as our set-up 'Zone' for stocks that appear to be 'pyramiding'. Food for thought!

(Message edited by gdd3 on April 15, 2010)


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prater64
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Thursday, April 15, 2010 - 03:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dolphin,

Thanks for the input. I haven't access to the charts here at work, but I'll go back to the ESG chart and see what I can get together re the setups that I saw on that one.

"Secondly, you explained your stop strategy once the stock moves favourably(in the +ve) but I'm assuming your initial stop is as as Craig suggests...below the set-up bar day low (in PXS's case maybe below the engulfing candle low, right!)."

Yeah sorry missed this part, I have been setting up the initial stop loss as you described.

As for the W%R topic, I may look into it a bit more. I think it was mentioned (perhaps by yourself) that the ADX can be used in the stock scan stage to restrict the possiblilities to look at. The issue, as I mentioned, was that I have found sometimes you can be waiting to look for a retrace when you may have been able to get on board at an earlier TAZ indication.


"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one. You just like the look of some more than others."

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maittlen
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Friday, April 16, 2010 - 06:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday All

The attached chart of BXB shows what I think is a TAZ cluster???
3,10,30 & 150 DSMA
Good bounce off support for the W%R
Please advise reasons why you would not buy.
BXB TAZ cluster
Thanks
James


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gdd3
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Friday, April 16, 2010 - 11:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Maittlen...My 2nd attempt at this post; don't quite know why the first one failed...anyway,

Yes a T.A.Z. cluster in place and confirmation Wed. at say $7.30(to cater for 'higher' volume rule) but I guess the two questions(from my trading perspective) to ask are what sort or risk/reward ratio are you perceiving from these levels and what sort of trading 'objectives/goals' are you aiming for...i.e. % gains! For me, with my T.A.Z. trading goals, I'm looking for a min. of 15-25% gains(on pennies right, as its hard to trade top 200 stocks and get that sort of return ...well consistently in the present climate(last two years). If you have similar 'goals', you have to ask "Do you see BXB reaching between $8.40 and $9.14 by ??date?". If this is a "buy and hold" investment well fine but if you are a trader looking for 'quick' returns(anything from 2/4 days to 2 months)then I think there are better TRADING opportunities.

Having said all this here are what I see as the +ves' and -ves' of BXB's present position ...and not only from a potential T.A.Z. point of view.

+VES...1)...above long-term uptrendline(thick yellow line on both charts)and 10/30/150 EMA's;
2)...within shot-term uptrend channel and above the blue support line(neck-line);
3)...there is a 'crude' inverse H & S in play and it has yet to reach its objective...~$8.18;
4)...TAZ Cluster signal confirmed at $7.30;
5)...150EMA still rising;
6)...XAO/XJO are still rising

-VES...1)...TAZ signal coming from 'mid-channel'/range;
2)...10/30MA's are flat to lowering and will probably 'cross' -ve after today.
3)...lower swing high in place(Mar.22nd and strong overhead resist.@ $7.60...less than 5% rise away.
4)...W%R14 at overhead resistance(2nd chart); wait for this to break for entry!;
5)...ADX well below the desired 25% trend strength signal;
6)...Known M/D at only 'evens'...need for more shown 'enthusiasium'.

Just one TRADERS take on BXB...Good luck with her.

Cheers
Dolphin









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maittlen
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Saturday, April 17, 2010 - 06:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday Dolphin

The big thing for me out of what you said is the comment about risk/reward.
The need for writing down the trade plan is very clear when I look at a chart and think some things, then someone analyses the same chart and things get pointed out that I should have looked at, for example how far will it go and how long - these comments have made me realise why most stocks on this forum are in cents rather than dollars - so thanks for that.
I spoke of a lower swing high on GRR and here there is clearly a lower swing high, the 150DSMA is actually turning down and the overhead resistance.
Thanks Dolphin I will go write down what I have learnt from this.

Have a good weekend


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zap
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Saturday, April 17, 2010 - 02:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi,

I have been following this thread on the side lines what I am still not clear about is the stops. What is your initial stop and what do you use as a trailing stop.

initial stop could be just under support at 0.80 or under your buy day? does that vary depending on the chart? and again what is your trailing stop?

Thanks

here is my first Taz chart

got


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gdd3
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Monday, April 19, 2010 - 11:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Zap...welcome aboard.

You are right, the current action can be considered a form of a T.A.Z. Cluster but it has yet to provide a trigger confirmation...i.e. break above the 'cluster highs'.

GOT has been very interesting from a TAZ set-up point of view over its 7 month uptrend(shown below) and was last 'raised' by Stampy back in the first week of April. That 'aggressive' T.A.Z. set-up proved a bit of a 'fizzer' but the placement of an initial stop(as per Craig's recommendation on his website and referred too on this thread many a time)under the set-up bar(Mar.31st ...88.5c) would have meant any losses(assuming you got at the trigger price of 95.4c) would have been limited to 8points or 8%.

To explain why I said 'interesting', have a look at the 4 T.A.Z. set-ups that I have 'boxed' out(including the present one). All 4 began with a strong 'wide range' dark cloud or hammer down day within the T.A.Zone; the subsequent days where either inside range days or Doji's to form the cluster and at no time did it go below the initial candle day...except for our present 'set-up'? Now, once GOT's price rose above the 'inside day' parameters(TAZ trigger) the resultant move was potentially between 50% - 70% reward. Now, one must note here that, technically, the TAZ cluster that is highlighted in pink should not have been followed if you wanted all 5 entry criteria satisfied as we eventually had a -ve 10/30MA cross-over during its formation. It started out ok but the time decay would cause this and therefore is not considered a TAZ Swing Trade. I'm using the candlestick formation here to highlight the similarities in the chart patterns to the other set-ups. Now , the present set-up has gone lower than the initial set-up large candle but we are at/near very good structural support and with both Williams%R's at desireable levels and exhausting, one would expect a bounce very soon...the question will be by how much....50% - 70%...who knows????

Another interesting aspect is the similarity between the steep pullbacks on the Williams%R14 (well, on 3 of the 4)with the break of the trend resistances proving to be good 'entry confirmation' signals....say above the pink horizontal line I have shown on the Williams%R14 chart.

In a 'nutshell', Zap(and others), why wouldn't the present level or just below, be a low risk entry level anyway(T.A.Z. confirmation aside)but from a T.A.Z. trade point of view now we must consider today's candle as the set-up candle and get above her in the next day or two(otherwise we will get a repeat of the "pink box" M/A scenario!





Cheers
Dolphin


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maittlen
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Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 07:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday All

WPG has come up on a TAZ scan I have run.
W%R 14 & 3 are in the right zones, volume has fallen away in the down days except for the last couple of days.
Is this a good candidate or not?
Please help
WPG TAZ 190410
Thanks

James


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ivor
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Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 08:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Maittlen

Looks like a TAZ trade to me.
All indicators in the right position.
Set up yesterday with a series of lower lows and lower highs, and then followed by a trigger today with a higher low and higher high.

Looks good IMHO.

Can I ask what scan you have used to find it ?

Regards
Ivor




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maittlen
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010 - 06:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday Ivor

I have scanned for 3 lower highs, 10DSMA > 30DSMA, todays close > 30DSMA, todays close <10dsma,> 150DSMA and 50dsma > 150 DSMA.
I then look over the charts with the W%R.
I ran the scan over the 19/4 data, there was 13 candidates the only other one with all indicators right was HIL.
I have trouble choosing which one is right to go.
HIL TAZ 190410

Seeya

Maittlen


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prater64
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010 - 10:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Maittlen,

I was going to list the criteria from Craig's page re TAZ set ups but I'll link the checklist instead;

http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/support-files/swing-trading-checklist.pdf

From what I have seen most of us here are using this with some tweaks here and there. Dolphin as he has outlined above and in his post (https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/2467624.html makes use of the W%R:14 and not just the 3 period W%R which is in the checklist. I've been looking at the use of the 7SMA instead of the 10SMA as I found a lot of the stocks are not falling into the zone between the 10SMA/30EMA to see how that would pan out.






As for HIL, while not a perfect TAZ set up, W%R:14 was -68 & W%R:3 was -50 on lowest day, but it doesn't mean it wont pan out. Also don't for get to check S&R lines on longer term charts. HIL has a resistance line at ~$2.90 (long term Nov08-Jan09 consolidation period plus the two recent highs). It is currently in an ascending triangle pattern so if it gets enough volume it may kick on through it with next test at around $3.60 (Oct08 S&R) or so as my best estimate.

So thats my 2c for what it's worth. Don't forget DYOR and read my sig

Cheers
Prater64


"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one. You just like the look of some more than others."

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espresso
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010 - 10:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Prater, thats great advice.
Cheers


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zap
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Thursday, April 22, 2010 - 04:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



@gdd3,

Thanks, I am still wondering what some a using as a trailing stop once your in the position.


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prater64
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Thursday, April 22, 2010 - 10:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Zap,

At present I use an initial stop below the low preceeding the entry signal (ie bottom of the trough) trailing stop of the low 2 days prior. So using GOT (Dolphins post 834) and the highlighted TAZ setup on 9/3/10.

Initial stop
Set on entry day (11/3/10) at 0.59 (low of 9/3/10).
Trailing stop
Set at 0.615 (low of 10/3/10)
Then 0.70 (low of 11/3/10) and so on.

If when reseting my stop, a day would see the stop being set above the close of the current days trade, then I leave it where it is.

Eg: When setting the trailing stop for the 15/3, I would use 0.76 (12/3 low). However because the close of the 14/3 was lower than this, I would have left it trailing at the previously set point of 0.70 (11/3 low). Hope that makes sense.

My stop is triggered manually when the day closes below the stop. This method can see you get stopped out a little if the stock price is subject to large volatile moves in price (eg some pennies). Not raising the stop as described above has meant that I haven't had as much problem from stocks that go into short consolidations and and minor pullbacks stopping me out.

Ok so a little extra info in response to Dolphins previous request re my paper trade results so far.

Start Capital: $5,000
Money Management: 2% Rule
Brokerage: $15
Acceptable Loss: 2% of stock price (Used to calc max shares)

Stock Entry Buy Current P/L
MML 01/04/10 $4.00 $4.51 +11.79% gain (Open)
NVT 01/04/10 $5.25 $5.10 -3.68% (Stopped Out)
CIL 01/04/10 $1.69 $1.685 -1.14% (Stopped Out)
LNC 01/04/10 $1.69 $1.64 -3.78% (Stopped Out)
DML 06/04/10 $0.75 $0.88 +14.29% (Open)

Brokerage is eating into the profits a lot as I thought it would with such a small opening capital and using the 2% rule. P/L is net profit/loss determined on buy/sell rather than on stock price gain/loss and includes brokerage costs. Ultimately poor picks were the biggest cause of the losses.

NVT had entered consolidation and with the current trailing stop system was stopped out.

Not sure why I went with CIL but it did highlight the 'volume' issue to me as the buy indication only had 35k on that day, less than 1/4 the days before.

LNC was a lesson in looking at the longer term charts for S&R lines and checking the trend. Long term resistance was 10c above entry price at around $1.79. With a volatile stock (up to 8c price range open/close) and poor entry point (first cross of 150EMA and it hadn't really started to turn upward). Note to self - must trade the trend.

All in all I'm in front which is heartening and I've learnt a lot of lessons along the way which is even better. Cheers to those 'educators' who have provided snippets of enlightenment on here by way (Dolphin, Jaded and Hershy to name a few).

Cheers
Prater64


"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one. You just like the look of some more than others."

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gdd3
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Thursday, April 22, 2010 - 02:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



PT64...job well done(post No. 25)...I'll include this in the T.A.Z. Trade Road Map sub-thread if you have no objections.

Dolphin


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prater64
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Thursday, April 22, 2010 - 11:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I don't have any objections. I've just putting it forward as I've been learning it. It generally helps me to understand it better myself by having some to and fro about a technique.

Post 25...Didn't realise I'd been so chatty...


"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one. You just like the look of some more than others."

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ivor
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Monday, April 26, 2010 - 05:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello TAZ disciples

TSO has to have ticked all the boxes for a TAZ trade tomorrow morning

Regards to all
Ivor




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gdd3
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010 - 06:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivor....TSO appears to be a good call; has come up on a few scans. In addition, courtesy from OWL (Tazometer), are OVR, CHN and POS over the last day or so plus SEA and OMH today. On watch for near-term potential are COK, PCL, LRL, WFM and "XJO"...yep!

So thats TSO, OVR, CHN, POS, SEA and OMH...all on "Go!"

On watch are...COK, PCL, LRL, WFM and XJO.

Now which one is best or do we wait for XJO confirmation!?!?

Cheers
Dolphin


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ivor
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Friday, April 30, 2010 - 03:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello All

Three iron ore stocks have come up today as TAZ set up candidates. All favourites of jaded would you believe.
All just need a higher high trigger with added volume early next week to light up.

Regards to all
Ivor




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ivor
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ivor
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ivor
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Friday, April 30, 2010 - 03:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



And this one as well.
Another favourite of Jaded's




All courtesy of the Jadedometer.


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maittlen
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Monday, May 03, 2010 - 07:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday All

Ran a scan on Fridays close and came up with STB.
Resistance at 100, volume dropping off on the way down good volume on the previous rise.
There has now been a lower high and a lower low- is this enough to keep you from trading this?

STB daily

Any thoughts?

Maittlen


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gdd3
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Hi Maittlen,

You wrote... "There has now been a lower high and a lower low- is this enough to keep you from trading this?"

To answer this(from a TAZ perspective) I would say there is nothing to say enter NOW at present levels...BECAUSE WE HAVE YET TO HAVE ANY CONFIRMATION OF THE POSSIBLE SET-UP!.

All we have is a 'potential' set-up, which looks better I might add with today's action added to your chart above. Three positives from today; 70% of today's range(60 -69) was at 65 and above; today's action providing a long tail candle(hammer) low and; the tail penetrated through the 30EMA but closing above; all 'classical', and generally reliable, TAZ set-up tools. In addition, today's low was also above the gap high(support)back in early April(55-45); another positive sign.

An aggressive TAZ trader would be entering on a trade above 69 tomorrow, a less aggressive trader would enter once above 69c and when tomorrow's vol. exceeds
today's(590,000), with a more conservative trader waiting for a trade above 75c(previous candle high)plus higher vol. So take your pick Maittlen but one added caution...keep your eye on the Market Depth as(if and when) she moves higher. At the moment not too flash...about 1:4 against! This is exactly what would be holding me back in this one at present but this can change very quickly.

Cheers
Dolphin


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maittlen
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Gday Dolphin

Thanks for the education - depth is something I need to incorporate.

Thanks

Maittlen


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gdd3
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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 03:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



KIK...

Got my eye on KIK for a potential TAZ trade as she's holding very good support at 16c and someone seems to be accumulating there this arvo.

Chart and more detail later.

Dolphin


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gdd3
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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 09:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



KIK...chart promised earlier.

Could be another TAZ set-up in the making that if confirmed should at the bare minimum see KIK head to 21c(being the M/M outside of the last 11-16c consolidation area). Interestingly during the day whenever she drifted back to the support at 16c a 'big' buyer would come into provide 'volume' support; almost like a pre-planned crossing their (> half the day's volume went thru at 16c). Now, because the required 'technical' confirmation of the TAZ set-up is now at 19c it seems hardly worthwhile to look for a 2 cent move( to 21c) so I personally believe it may be better to 'pre-empt' this move by buying at 16c, risk 1.5c(14.5c) to may be get 5c....but thats just my idea and anyone interested should DYOR.





Good tradin'

Dolphin


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espresso
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Hi Dolphin,
Im currently hold KIK @ .17cents, have had them for 25 days. Happy to get out at .21cents
Thanks for the advice.


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jaded
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gdd3 wrote on Monday, May 03, 2010 - 10:00 pm:

keep your eye on the Market Depth as(if and when) she moves higher. At the moment not too flash...about 1:4 against! This is exactly what would be holding me back in this one at present but this can change very quickly.




I'd be interested in a discussion on points of Market Depth,Dolphin.
EG what do you actually mean by this 1:4 'factor'?Is it in the Total Depth or the Range Depth[first few bids and asks]?
One often sees quite silly Large Number Bids and Asks waay out of the 'action'in Total Depth like say 1 million at 1 cent when the share is trading 5 cents.

I think Commsec doesn't allow such silliness.It also doesn't provide Full Depth coverage[so I've heard.I'm not with them] Anyhow many/most people are Commsec so I'd just like to clarify some Market Depth as 'indicator' points.

Do you wish to do it on this thread or will you open another?

Happy Trading.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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gdd3
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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 12:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



D'jaded...

Firstly, yep, please start up another thread to get your discussion going on the 'ins and outs'(discussion on points as you put it) of MARKET DEPTH.

Secondly, to briefly answer your specific enquiry on my statement...

"keep your eye on the Market Depth as(if and when) she moves higher. At the moment not too flash...about 1:4 against! This is exactly what would be holding me back in this one at present but this can change very quickly."

I was simply trying to 'hint' to Maittlen and others that from my(T.A.Z. trading) perspective "keep your eye on M/D balance". At the time I was referring to the total volume inverse (im)balance of STB's "buyer vol." versus "seller vol" being then at 1:4. And yes, I agree with your comment about "out of the action"/range/money buyers/sellers and personally only "pay attention" to 'at/near the money' bids/sells. And from a (personal) TAZ confirmation criteria perspective I like to use a +ve M/D balance(I'm sure you know what I mean)and don't consider stocks with TAZ set-ups that have a strong -ve M/D interest, as was the case with STB at the time. In additional, and as I've pointed out here on many occasions(and I know you agree), M/D changes very quickly. Hence my reference to "(if and when) it (STB) moves higher" to Maittlen in that post.

Not too sure why you would think that "Commsec doesn't allow such silliness" if referring to "total(available)
market depth"; can't see why/how the ASX would allow individual brokers to 'manipulate' actual M/D to their own means or beliefs.

Hope you see this as a satisfactory answer to your post and if you think some of my points are of interest to others on your "new Market Depth discussion" thread please feel free to 'cut and paste'.

In the meantime, have you got any TAZ stock set-up examples to add to this thread; love to see you contribute a few and share here...even quite happy if you include a bit of you wonderful F/A to support the TAZ T/A! How about a few Gold miners/specs(I know you "luv" them); if not may be you want to have a look at the few I'm about to post if interested?

Good Tradin',

Dolphin


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gdd3
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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 01:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi fellow TAZers...

Going with the 'flavour of the month'...GOLD...here are a few stocks that have given confirmed TAZ entries over the last couple of days....

AND, CTO, IAU, MML and RSG.

Both AND and MML have been 'stand-out' performers in their sector(out-performing POG and our more 'illustrious' gold stocks) and, from a TAZ perspective, have given many opportunities to enter during their marvellous ride over the last year. However, as these stocks have been entered(and hence charts submitted) in the Weekly Stock Picking Comp I'll focus on the others here. Suffice to say MML has given a 'secondary' confirmed TAZ buy today whilst AND gave one on Fri and again yesterday.

CTO and RSG have given confirmed buys in today's action also(although in RSG's case the original signal was given late last week with a secondary entry coming today). Interesting chart pattern has been emerging in RSG over the last 6 months...a topping pattern or consolidation pattern is the question? Action, if and when, it goes above 1.23c will reveal all!





IAU, a bit late on this one as it gave our confirmation on Friday, but, because of its chart structure I believe the potential is worthy of entry even at present levels. It broke out of its 10 month+ 24.5c - 40c band 2 weeks ago only to retrace back into the band(false break-out may be?). However, found support at 35.5c and now has again 'broken-out' of the band(negating the 'false break-out' threat and now favours moving on and up towards 54.5c(M/M of band), i.e., if she can 'master' the 46.5 resistance. And, guess what, the 54.5c is also the 'wave equality' of the move from the Nov 08 low to the June 09 high also(shown with yellow angled lines on chart).



And whilst on 'gold' stocks and not TAZ, check out PRU...another consistent performer and SBM(not so consistent but is maybe about to change...to 35c+?).

Cheers
Dolphin


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jaded
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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 07:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



maittlen above thanked you,gdd3, for the Market Depth 'education' and was going to 'incorporate' it in the Trading.

I was just wanting a bit more 'expose' from you,gdd3 on what he should 'incorporate'?

I've been told/picked up from forums that Commsec does NOT offer full market depth coverage to ALL subscribers.
Cheaper one goes with too few transactions and Commsec/suc cuts the 'coverage'.
Just what I been 'told'.Haven't verified it etc.

Anyway,it's you gdd3 who have said there's Market Depth 'considerations' in the TAZ pick.
I can't[and don't feel like]go stealing ya 'thunder'
so if you won't set up a separate thread?then maybe maittlen will?

whatever?maybe you have more 'credibility' in explaining 'Fake Bids'n'Asks' that can confuse the unwary?

you don't really want me,d'Jaded to start up with my Anti Gold Rave?No I'm flat out handling the faults in TAZ Mechanics!!

best retire.
happy trading.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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maittlen
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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 07:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday Jaded and Dolphin

I do not know where the thread for Market Depth is but wanted to add to the discussion.
Dolphin you said it(Market Depth)can change very quickly, this sparked my memory to a trade where I went long with all things pointing in the right direction - I was at home this day so was able to watch the market depth go from more buyers than sellers completely reverse to more sellers than buyers to which I changed by trade from long to short and made a good profit.
This memory recall has highlighted the fact of how important buyers and sellers are- they are the market. They are what we are all looking at.
Thanks Dolphin


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maittlen
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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 08:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday Dolphin/Jaded

I posted my last post without knowing you had just posted Jaded.
Market Depth - More buyers than sellers price goes up. More sellers than buyers price goes down
I think that this is what Dolphin is getting at?

IAU came up on a scan that I ran 3/5 so I followed down to lowest high on 5/5 and marked that high as a buy signal. No buying at the moment - still learning. Hindsight is good and bad.
What is the confirmation is it the break of the high I marked or not?

IAU

Thanks


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ken
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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 08:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Jaded,

Re Comsec depth, the website gives about 10 levels of depth but the Comsec Iress gives full depth.

Ken


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jaded
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maittlen wrote on Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 08:04 pm:

Market Depth - More buyers than sellers price goes up. More sellers than buyers price goes down
I think that this is what Dolphin is getting at?






i reaaaaaly should just leave it there,hey?

Who ARE buyers?

Trading Range within Depth.
Shares on Issue vs Week/Month/even 6/12 months Turnover.
Liquidity 'figured' agin Free Float.
Volume against a Simple Moving Average.
Any Volume Spike checked against 'news'.
Transfers are NOT Trading?

Pilgrims to Mammon,Do ya Follow?


.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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gdd3
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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 11:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



D'jaded...

First "YOU" ask me to start up a thread that YOU want(Market Depth discussion) by saying..."I'd be interested in a discussion on points of Market Depth, Dolphin" and then later 'twist' your request as if it was me who wanted it by saying..."Do you wish to do it here on this thread or will you(me i.e.) open another?".

My response was clear..."please start up another thread to get YOUR discussion going on the 'ins and outs' of Market Depth".

Then you come back with...."...so if you won't set up a separate thread? then may be Maittlen will?"

Question, D'jaded, ...why won't/haven't you start(ed) up started up the Market Depth discussion thread that YOU, ostensibly, really?want?

Answer....As this is not what you are on about here(in this TAZ thread). Again, ostensibly, an invitation for discussion on M/D but really(as you put it)..."I'm flat out handling the faults in TAZ Mechanics", or "i reaaaaaly should just leave it at that", and "Pilgrims to Mammon, Do you follow?"

Yes, I follow D'jaded...you are not at all interested in adding constructively to the TAZ thread, never have and probably never will. I hope you prove me wrong...remember I also said in my response posting before above that...

"In the meantime, have you got any TAZ stock set-up examples to add to this thread; love to see you contribute a few and share here...even quite happy if you include a bit of you wonderful F/A to support the TAZ T/A!"

...and this was a sincere question/invitation, merely a simple 'pilgrim' request with no hidden agenda!

So, if you are really "interested in a discussion on the points of Market Depth I'll do what you requested and open YOUR thread for you...under the "Trading - Psychology" Topic...and you can continue that discussion there, OK!

Dolphin


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maittlen
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Thursday, May 13, 2010 - 07:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday All

PTS has come up on a TAZ scan I ran on yesterdays data.
Has broken through resistance at 12.5.
15 might be the next lot of resistance, 3 day W% is in the right zone and the 14 day is getting there.
Volume is up since late April.
Any thoughts?

PTS 120510

Goodluck


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maittlen
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Friday, May 14, 2010 - 06:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday

Have scanned this morning and came up with CAP and SLV.
Williams% 3 and 14 both in the zone.
SLV has retraced 50% look for support to hold at 97.5
Volume has been on the rise since April
Look for CAP to find support at 34, there was volume at the break out but that has dropped off.
Any thoughts on either
CAP 130510
SLV130510

Goodluck


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gdd3
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Friday, May 14, 2010 - 07:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Maittlen and Co....

My apologies for delays in PM's and comments here as I've been 'pre-occupied' with other matters over the last few days.

Maittlen, thanks for posting your 'TAZ' hopefuls above...PTS, CAP and SLV...and since no one else has responded I'll make a few comments myself. A noticable general comment is that all I would classify as 'illiquid' stocks, both in volumes traded and value traded, so, personally, I just don't trade them. Hence, I use a min. average volume on 'pennies' to 'weed-out' these ones in my scans. Some traders are comfortable with 'illiquid' stocks and you may be one and thats fine.

From a TAZ criteria perspective I think SLV is the best as the signal is coming from good chart support(97.5)... horizontal, 50% retracement and 150EMA support but again, its the lack of vols. that is a distraction for me. PTS, technically gave confirmation at 15c at yesterday's close. CAP, signal is coming from 150EMA and 0.618 retracement(so you would assume a fare bit of overhead resistence ahead on any rally up to cater for those who 'jumped the gun' too early and may want to just get out) and needs to get above 37.5c yet to provide trigger + higher vols(M/D 2/5 against also).

Expresso, are you still holding KIK?...maybe our patience is finally going to be rewarded and we're on our way to 21c min? Hopefully my 'trade 'risk/reward' strategy on this one(i.e. pre-empting a TAZ confirmation coming after retracement to the 16 - 15.5c support)will bare fruit.

Summary of weekly TAZ summitions....AND, CTO, IAU, MML and RSG ...all but one have risen(CTO), whilst the rest have potentially provided between 8.5% - 16% rises
none have closed inside my 15 - 25% profit take band. The best looks to be IAU, now that she has cosed above 46.5c, and looks to be heading towards the 54.5c target. All in all not a bad week though.

The two others(non-TAZ entries) mentioned, PRU and SBM, have also performed well.

Hopefully will do some homework over the weekend with my scans and come up with some more to 'watch' or trade.

Cheers
Dolphin


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espresso
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Hi Dolphin,
Yes I am and was very surprised by its move on Friday, as I thought it may be hovering just below the 30wk EMA for a few more days, what will be interesting is were will be go from her, you suggested .21 cents, Im hoping it wil be higher. Also since your suggestion I have been watching IAU and at 3.30 yesterday I bought a parcel at 46.5 again a great call. TNX for sharing the advice.
Cheers


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maittlen
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Sunday, May 16, 2010 - 06:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday All

Have scanned Fridays data to come up with - RRS, ARP, WEC, TCM and FAS.
FAS looks the most interesting having found support at 11 hopefully with over head resistance at 13.5, 14.5 then 16.
Volume has been good on the up moves with W%R in the right zone.
I think I would be right in saying the last candle is a good sign?
Please comment.

FAS 140510

Thanks

Maittlen


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maittlen
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Sunday, May 16, 2010 - 07:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gday Again

Been checking RRS which does not look too bad either if it finds support at around 0.6 but resistance at 0.66 night be a problem.

RRS 140510

Looking forward to some comments

Maittlen


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gdd3
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Hey Expresso...F.Y.I.O.

IAU has been great, but now that it has reached my "Target" band....54c-57c... I existed this am at 55.5c and happy to do so even though no "TAZ" exit signal has been given.

My "Target" band is a mix of two trading bands with measured moves(M/M) shown in blue and orange plus wave equality M/M...see yellow diagonal waves on chart since the Nov. 08 lows.

May have another 'bite at the cherry' is she gets back to the 48-46c area(or above 58c..with restrictions).

Keeping my eye on ADU, RSG and TRY for potential 'gold' TAZ's.



Good tradin'

Dolphin


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espresso
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Thank you for the detailed explanation.
Il keep an eye out for those that you have suggested.
Cheers


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gdd3
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Wednesday, June 02, 2010 - 02:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A TAZ update...

IAU did indeed get back to a possible TAZ 're-entry' zone(48-46c); in fact it went as low as 40.5c(on that horror day for all stocks) before bouncing the very next day to close above 48c(50.5)so I was back in and as long as the near-term 52c(ATR) support holds I'm now favouring that she can push thru to the next M/M band at the low 70's(which is also a H.&S M/M level....have a look at a wkly chart back to mid 2007)....but she needs to get a 'wriggle' on soon, right!

Of the other two mentioned at the last posting, RSG and TRY, RSG has all but negated any near-term potential TAZ buy signal as she traded below the 150EMA(but hasn't closed below there yet!). TRY, on the other hand, gave an entry after the 25th of May set-up day and has held support at $2.34 in doing so to provide entry at $2.52....but there is no real 'vol. interest'(so not for me!).

Updated Chart for IAU.



One that may be of interest for the next day or so is POH. Just maybe she is to provide us with its 3rd TAZ Cluster buy signal from current levels. It is also holding onto the Wkly TAZ at 15c provided when it gapped up on the 13th of May. That gap(13.5-14.5) is still holding as support both on a chart and in 'known' Market Depth). Could be a great 'low' risk/reward trade here(2 cents verses 9 cents...to 24c...see wkly chart). And then there is that "Double Bottom" M/M potential that is also 'evident' in the Wkly Chart....36c






Good tradin'

Dolphin

(Message edited by gdd3 on June 02, 2010)







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bib
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Username: bib

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Thursday, June 03, 2010 - 08:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin etal,
I have added a request in the suggestion box that IC add a scan for weekly and daily basic pivot points.
That is , 3 bars the middle the lowest and the last bar close higher than the high of the middle.
This is a form of TAZ technique used successfully by thedaytrader in the HeraldSun - Melbourne (of course he uses other entry methods as well, NH's, break of narrow consolidation in U/Trend etc).
When a weekly pivot point is formed indicating a potential move he switches to the daily and waits for a pullback and takes a buy signal on a daily pivot point pattern.
Also he takes the signal of a general market (XAO) change of trend using the same method. Ie, he is out of the market in a D/Trend until he gets a weekly PP followed by a daily PP.
These have proved to be high probability entries.
However the real secret to his 25% annual returns (including GFC) is his stop placement and money management rules.
This TAZ thread is widely read which indicates a lot of interest amongst the IC community so i think adding Weekly and Daily basic pivot point Pattern scans would be a real plus.
A fast daily parabolic change from bearish to bullish after a pullback in an uptrend is also a signal in a TAZ area. A scan for these would also be helpful.

 
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