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2011...April to June Challenge...Week 12

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through December 20, 2011 » 2011...April to June Challenge...Week 12

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p3t3
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Friday, June 17, 2011 - 03:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Welcome to the "March Equinox to June Solstice Challenge ".

This Challenge will start on the week beginning April 4th and run until July 1st over a period of 13 weeks. At the completion of that time an acknowledgement by way of the award of "(cyber) medals" of Gold, Silver and Bronze will be made to the top 3 achievers. Last place will also be acknowledged with the award of a "(cyber) wooden spoon".

This Weekly Comp is aimed at the non-professional market entrant with $5,000 drawn off his mortgage or credit card, a standard trading account and a day job (probably also with a wife and dependent kids).

This stock tipping Challenge will use Monday's open price for the entry and Friday's close as the exit.

An intra-week "Stop" may be nominated on any day - Monday to Thursday - and will be taken as having been received after that day's market close. The closing price of the position will be the next day's open price, that being the nearest available exit price. Activating that "Stop" would close the entrant's position until the start of the following week, and no new position may be opened for the purposes of the Comp until then. A new pick may be nominated towards the end of the week in which the "Stop" was applied for the following week's trading.

Only long positions may be be nominated, with a unit price no lower than $0-05. Any day that a stock closes below $0-05 an automatic stop will be applied on that day, using the close price for that day as the exit price. No entries for warrants, exchange traded options or other derivative products will be accepted, only entries of ASX tickers for ordinary shares and ASX ticker "Gold".

Nominations should be accompanied by a chart clearly showing the Technical Analysis used, with a short explanation of how that Technical Analysis is being applied. It is preferred that Incredible Charts software be used for chart postings.

"Long Continuous" (LC) positions maybe be nominated prior to 4pm on Friday to maintain a new or existing position into the following week, or the following Comp. "Good 'Till Cancelled" (GTC) positions may also be nominated before Friday's close, and will be treated as an LC with an automatic renewal, within the duration of the current Comp. Carry-over of GTC and LC positions into a new Comp will require notification by way of a post to the weekly thread prior to the last Friday close of the current Comp.

Any entrant who has not elected, by way of a post in the weekly thread, to use their "Stop", "Long Continuous" or "Good 'Till Cancelled" option, or has not had an automatic stop applied for a close below $0-05, will automatically receive Friday's close as their exit.

An entrant who has a position that goes into a Trading Halt will be required to retain that position until the stock resumes trading. They may then nominate to "Stop" out at the following day's open, or retain the position until a normal Friday exit is automatically applied.

Each entrant will be awarded a starting capital of $5,000 cyber-dollars and gains on positions will be added to that amount on a weekly basis, while losses will be subtracted from it. Anyone reaching a capital of $10,000 may split their cyber-capital into 2 positions of $5,000 each, if they choose, or continue to use the $10,000 on a single position.

Short term weekly awards for First, Second, Third and Last place (spoon) will be acknowledged and recorded. The amount of gain or loss on the weekly position will be applied to the entrant's accumulated capital.

Any new entrant to the challenge should feel free to ask for help regarding posting, as there are many here familiar with the conditions and methods used.

Please place your tips and chart here in this thread.


It's not about how good you are....
it's about how bad you want it

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p3t3
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Friday, June 17, 2011 - 03:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

rockon SDL LC

Chart later....Thanks p3t3.









It's not about how good you are....
it's about how bad you want it

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azworkinit
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Friday, June 17, 2011 - 11:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Az, Thx, L. Thundellara has approached support at this level. Seems to trade in consistent waves and I belive she has at least a few cents in her this week.

THX


With some good news this may be my comp winner! Rgds Az.


"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

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rockon
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Saturday, June 18, 2011 - 06:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Chart for SDL LC

Not much changed from last weeks dialogue. Support still holding and the weekly MACDH is still a tiny bit diverged from previous weeks price actionÖAlso a little noise down díBBQ regarding a supposed announcement due out soon?????





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jimmyswell
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Saturday, June 18, 2011 - 10:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



JimmySwell AUQ L
a
In this turbulent market, gold and copper spread around Saudi, Australia, Oman & Sth America has a certain safety that might explain the slight increase in volume and price over the past few days.


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rdumas
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Sunday, June 19, 2011 - 06:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete,

I must be a glutton for punishment but I'll go long MRM. Idiot buy and break out.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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breaker_1
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Sunday, June 19, 2011 - 08:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BDR,RMS,FML,
can't pick market to volatile
copt a big loss on LYC ,see it all wine and roses


The road to success is always under construction





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lucky_phil
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Sunday, June 19, 2011 - 08:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Lucky Phil WTP L


WTP looks to have found support with a long tail on Friday and good volume. Looking for a kick toward the upper trend channel border.

Good luck all for the coming week
Phil


Whoa you know you can't spend what you ain't got,
you can't lose what you ain't never had - McKinley Morganfield

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espresso
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Monday, June 20, 2011 - 12:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi P3t3,
MLM please
chart and excuse tomorrow


http://www.australiancattledogrescue.com/helpus.htm
Australian Cattle Dog Rescue are always looking for caring people to look after rescued dogs in the short term.
Pounds and shelters can only hold them for a very short period before they must be put down if no home is found.
Do you have room to look after a rescued dog until a permanent home can be found for him or her?
Australian Cattle Dogs - Loyal-Fun-Loving & Best Friend

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gdd3
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Monday, June 20, 2011 - 12:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dolphin, FML, L

Toss up between ARD, GLF or FML this week but will stick to my favoured tools of trade ...TAZ WKLY Set-up/Confirmation. FML had a Wkly set-up two weeks ago and confirmation came last Tues. at 7.5c. The setup on the weekly is actually a false breakdown on the daily of its 3 month long pennant pattern. Most of last week action, on higher vols, was spent outside the downtrendline of that pennant, in a sort of kneejerk reaction, so all should be well for higher prices as long as she doesn't break below 7c again!



have a safe week everyone.

Cheers
Dolphin


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gamefisherman
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Monday, June 20, 2011 - 09:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All

Due to work commitments over the weekend, I have not been able to put the necessary research time into finding stocks, so apologies for no entry this week.

Best Wises to everyone and may your shopping trollies fill with the stock take bargains.......

Cheers
GF


Protect your capital and the rest will take care of itself with a solid trading plan that is adhered to every trade (PS THIS IS WRITTEN TO KEEP REMINDING ME TO STAY FOCUSSED AND FORGET NOISE)

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whiteowl
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Monday, June 20, 2011 - 09:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Owl FAR L

ROC MAs 10 30 65 150 all > 0
Has managed a Higher Low and Higher Hi
Looking for a Buy 10.5 Sell 12 (dream target 13.5)
Cheers all



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p3t3
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Monday, June 20, 2011 - 06:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 12, Monday :



Just nine entrants this week, being led out of the gate by Dolphin.

Tough market conditions are taking their toll on entries as we come down to the wire for this quarter.


It's not about how good you are....
it's about how bad you want it

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p3t3
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Tuesday, June 21, 2011 - 10:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 12, Tuesday :



Only Rudy remains in the green.

A better day for the markets, but not reflected in this table.


It's not about how good you are....
it's about how bad you want it

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p3t3
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Wednesday, June 22, 2011 - 07:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 12, Wednesday :



Owl has leapt six places into the lead.
Rudy has improved his position and is the only other tipster in the green.

The rest of us languish in the red, to a greater or lesser extent.


It's not about how good you are....
it's about how bad you want it

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p3t3
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Thursday, June 23, 2011 - 05:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 12, Thursday :



Owl remains at the top of the table

but no green to be seen is pretty sad.


It's not about how good you are....
it's about how bad you want it

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whiteowl
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Friday, June 24, 2011 - 12:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete
Can you let FAR run for next week and close that Friday.
I am off on hols to Vietnam in 5 hours (lucky me).
Regards all
Owl


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p3t3
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Friday, June 24, 2011 - 05:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 12, Friday :



Yowza. Nobody finished in the green.
Well done Rudy....gold medal position, for what it's worth.

XAO ended the day slightly positive....not so this table.


It's not about how good you are....
it's about how bad you want it

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rdumas
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Saturday, June 25, 2011 - 07:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete,

"Steven John Bradbury OAM (born 14 October 1973 in Camden, Sydney) is a former Australian short track speed skater and four-time Olympian, who won the 1,000 m event at the 2002 Winter Olympics after all of his opponents were involved in a last corner pile-up. He is the first Australian to win a Winter Olympic gold medal and was also part of the short track relay team that won Australia's first Winter Olympic medal (a bronze in 1994)."

Sort of reminds me of the Steven Bradbury incident in 2002.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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gdd3
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Saturday, June 25, 2011 - 12:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nice Analogy, Rudy....regardless, Bradbury(and you) still get to "keep" your gold...someone has to always "win" it, right!

....or may be the actual "gold" should go to any(all) of the 13 other participants who didn't go to the starter's line this week! I even think D'jaded has improved another spot since 'bowing-out' from the 4th week "last" position...a puzzling strategy for our "defending champ" but he'll run out of weeks, right!

I'm for "playing" to win the game, and may be loose, than not "playing" to win...Bit like Hewitt these day's in his tennis...play to win in the first two sets and succeed then when in front play to not loose and loose!

Oh, well, we all have but one last week 'to play for our pride only' and then we can move on to the next(+ve) quarter???? I'll have a particular prob. as I "gambled" on a LC entry...with the DOW down 1% last night!

My sincere thanks also to Pete who has and continues to do a marvellous job here running the show.

Dolphin


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rdumas
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Saturday, June 25, 2011 - 12:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

My thoughts echo yours with regard to the great work that Pete is doing in organising/monitoring the competition....much appreciated Pete.

As for winning or losing in the competition, it looks like I'm slowly whittling away my starting capital by playing stocks that I would generally not be investing in. I'm treating it more of a learning exercise than anything else. I was always going to eventually win a gold medal sooner or later based on the monkey/typewriter principle.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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p3t3
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Saturday, June 25, 2011 - 04:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 12, no protests received....so final result :



Actually your second gold, Rudy.

I reckon most of us operate differently in real-world trading from how we participate in the Comp. Though I haven't seen much evidence of "monkey with typewriter" level of stock-picking in the Comp. Looks like a collection of exceedingly savvy stock pickers to me....operating with constrained entry/exit rules. Real-world allows automated intra-day entries/exits and multiple picks within a trading week, as well as the opportunity to spread risk by dividing even a small amount of capital. Also allowing only long trades in a particularly tough trading environment makes stock-picking particularly tricky.

A learning experience it certainly is, and a worthwhile one as far as I'm concerned. Not the least regarding the edge that can be gained from not "having to" take a position in a hostile market, as Dolphin has already suggested above. Level of participation within this Comp has been not a bad guide to how favourable the overall market has been for short term long-only trading. That insight certainly has application in real-world strategy adaptation.

Sincere thanks Rockon, Dolphin and Rudy for your support for how the Comp is being administered. Low participation levels always raise questions and doubts.....

best
p3t3


It's not about how good you are....
it's about how bad you want it

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gdd3
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Saturday, June 25, 2011 - 06:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete...you've made a number of valid and true comments above.

"I reckon most of us operate differently in real-world trading from how we participate in the Comp."....absolutely!

" Looks like a collection of exceedingly savvy stock pickers to me....operating with constrained entry/exit rules"....yes!

" Also allowing only long trades in a particularly tough trading environment makes stock-picking particularly tricky."}...just may be we need to re-consider again the possibility of allowing "shorts" for ASX shortable stocks to boost the comp'n numbers up going into the next quarter's comp'n.

Cheers
Dolphin


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espresso
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Saturday, June 25, 2011 - 11:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thatís a fair call as another option dolphin, however I thought the skill of this comp is to be able to have a selective criteria regardless of the markets trending behaviour.
Being on the sidelines is also an option if no stock meets your criteria. (Personally I havenít taken that option yet, maybe I should have , in hindsight I probably should have.) Capital preservation is also an option.
With the market retracting itís just as easy to pick a short, as it would be picking a long in a treading asx200. (Running up Arthurís seat and beating the chairlift to the top was always harder than running down the mountain from experience. ) Anyway I think staying on course of the comp and fine tuning our stock criteria with an exit strategy attached to it would be further educational.
As you have demonstrated, I always look forward to your TAZ selection as your stock picks meet a criteria.
Have a great weekend.


http://www.australiancattledogrescue.com/helpus.htm
Australian Cattle Dog Rescue are always looking for caring people to look after rescued dogs in the short term.
Pounds and shelters can only hold them for a very short period before they must be put down if no home is found.
Do you have room to look after a rescued dog until a permanent home can be found for him or her?
Australian Cattle Dogs - Loyal-Fun-Loving & Best Friend

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jaded
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Sunday, June 26, 2011 - 09:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I've always made my Comp Picks in shares I hold or am looking to buy in the week.Shares that I hold were/are entered because they indicate a rise possible/probable in the coming week.For the last 2 months I've found no suitable entries so I haven't competed.

I thought that when a Trader identified unfavourable MACRO conditions ie Downtrending General Market that the best advice was to withdraw from "playing'/trading until the situation manifestly improved.

Under the 150D[30wk] and 60D dead crossed down of the MA's is a conventional criteria for defining the time to pull ya head in,Avoid.
Such a criteria can also be applied to individual shares along with the numerous TA methods of CONFIRMED Reversal.

A factor affecting "speculative" Materials shares is the Lack of Results News due to the flooding and unseasonal time length of the northern rainy season.No news kills Momentum and contributes to the dribble down in share price with consequent 'dead cat' bounces of only 2/3 days duration.

Another "event" causing downward pressure in a share I hold even when it issued 'good news' was heavy Redemptions in a Institutional Holder.
This is when large numbers of "investors" in a Fund require Cashing Up of their individual holdings perhaps to move risk 'premium' in Super.

Funds facing heavy redemptions proceed to Sell everyday at whatever price.
They do not make decisions based on their Fundamental Research of a Company's prospects in the medium/long term whatever They just sell.

Anyhow,these and personal "conditions" have made me not enter this Comp for some weeks so it's not some slight against you,p3t3.

On the subject of allowing Shorts-
I thought one could enter picks that were Legal,Legitimate Shorts already under the rules?you know shares listed in that official list.
I oppose any other method of shorting entry if this is gdd3's intention.

Generally I oppose 'encouraging' new traders to shorting because it can only be done by Leverage and I 'disapprove' of educating on a basis of borrowing to be in the Market.Trouble enough losing your own money rather than compounding the loss into Financial Ruin.

Anyway,when one sells up and goes to the sideline with your trading capital intact,don't be too eager to get back into it until the market returns to your suitable trading conditions especially if you have minimal capital.

Pilgrims to Mammon,a lot of those encouraging to trade that you read down d'Barbque are
-using say $50grand as 10% or less of their total capital
-trying to ramp the share up a long way so they can break even

If you must indulge in d'Dreaded Double Down then buy when the share has definitely bottomed and turned NOT just any day you want a lift and you feel the price is 'good' low relative to the past.
Also one buys a Double Down at the same $$$$'s not number for preference[same $$$ more in numbers gives a lower average break even price]

One should not buy at the current market conditions expecting some miraculous turnaround/say 30% gain in a week.That's another reason why I'm not picking for this Comp.

maybe next month.
happy trading







" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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gamefisherman
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Sunday, June 26, 2011 - 11:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All

Pete you have done a superb job running this "competition" and send my sincere appreciation for taking the time week in week out making it happen!!! It is no mean feat!!!!:-)

Whilst for this "newbie" it is a hard competition and probably in saying that for all competitors, as each week participants lay out their picks on the table, the learning that comes from watching other entries play out, the reasoning why a pick was made is invaluable imho. To all the other members whom participate, I send my sincere appreciation as well. (and also a special Thank You to all those people who have helped me so far with my questions!)

Finally, to all those whom consistently perform week in week out in this competition, I take my hat off to you and I hope that one day I to can develop my depth of skill to join your ranks.

In the meantime, Best Wishes to all.......


Protect your capital and the rest will take care of itself with a solid trading plan that is adhered to every trade (PS THIS IS WRITTEN TO KEEP REMINDING ME TO STAY FOCUSSED AND FORGET NOISE)
ASX Stocks 20-minute delayed

 
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2011...April to June Challenge...Week 10p3t330 11-Jun-11  05:16 pm

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