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COH - Cochlear Limited - Any thoughts?

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through 2004 » Archive through October 02, 2004 » COH - Cochlear Limited - Any thoughts?

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buy_stop
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Username: buy_stop

Post Number: 106
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Saturday, July 17, 2004 - 12:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



COH has broken upward trendline, is below 30WMA, and TMF is still signaling distribution.




Technical analysis is largely making a series of educated guesses that are based on reliable observations of past market behavior. Occasionally the guesses prove to be incorrect, and it is then the function of the analyst to adjust rapidly to the unforeseen developments.

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perler59
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Saturday, July 17, 2004 - 01:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Aegis say 12 month target of $17.30 and I tend to agree.







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new2waix
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Saturday, July 17, 2004 - 02:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The break of the short-term uptrend is disappointing. It's not over yet, but the real test remains at 23.74 (resistance that remains unbroken).

There are several levels of support, but looking at the long-term chart, this doesn't look like the best choice for a long position.

Maybe the sector is taking a breather - CSL looks as if it is about to retest support.

Good luck.



..


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buy_stop
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Sunday, July 25, 2004 - 04:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



New2

I agree with you.

Looks to me that a retest of support is in progress.




Technical analysis is largely making a series of educated guesses that are based on reliable observations of past market behavior. Occasionally the guesses prove to be incorrect, and it is then the function of the analyst to adjust rapidly to the unforeseen developments.

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nightstalker
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Sunday, July 25, 2004 - 06:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



... and apart from the TA aspect, the lawsuit in the USA may yet have more impact on our share price here. Also, the revelation that the only competitor, which WAS a small company, has been bought out by Boston Scientific, a BIG company with very deep pockets, means that suddenly Cochlear finds itself as not the only game in town.

I suspect the price will go a fair bit further down yet - but I've been wrong many times before - many, many times Neddy....:-)


Best wishes,

NightStalker - still scrambling up the steep part of the learning curve

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new2waix
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Sunday, July 25, 2004 - 06:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I am reluctant to waste any time with COH. There are some standouts in this sector and COH only continues to disappoint.

CSL and even MAY may offer much better odds - at least they look a little more promising on the chart.


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buy_stop
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Friday, August 13, 2004 - 11:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nice down move this week - looks like it may move to test resistance at $21.30.....




Technical analysis is largely making a series of educated guesses that are based on reliable observations of past market behavior. Occasionally the guesses prove to be incorrect, and it is then the function of the analyst to adjust rapidly to the unforeseen developments.

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nightstalker
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Saturday, August 14, 2004 - 09:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks like my previous post about the price going further down may have been right....

Nothing worse than a smart-arse saying "told you so.." :-)


Best wishes,

NightStalker - still scrambling up the steep part of the learning curve

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dennis_menace
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Wednesday, August 18, 2004 - 07:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi N/S,

You don't have to listen to what other people think - the chart says it all.




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buy_stop
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Friday, September 10, 2004 - 12:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Getting close to $21.30. Time to tighten stops and possibly start looking for short entry...




Buy_stop - always lurking with intent

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palace
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Sunday, September 12, 2004 - 09:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi

thanks buy stop for the heads up

left the party at 20.93

i will be looking for re entry on the long side

maybe around 20.40 50% of the last up leg range

19.82-21.00

mick


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palace
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Monday, September 13, 2004 - 06:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Can you believe it?

a pat on the head friday

a slap around the face monday

no chance of re entry ,with e trade down all morning

closed at 21.22

mick


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spiky
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Tuesday, September 14, 2004 - 01:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Palace/Mick

Do you often have trouble with Etrade down? I have had frequent interruptions, esp near closing time with Sanford. Occasionally its my broadband (Telstra) connection but mostly its Sanford. I had been contemplating moving to Etrade to solve it. But, well! So would appreciate your views on whether it is a rare happening. Also how do you rate Etrade, eg I see they have a sophisticated range of contingent orders. The webIress platform looks attractive compared to Sanford. I have also looked at AOT (but you need to do more trades to keep the cost down) and Morrison (a new online broker who charge $10 per trade if you pay upfront for webIress so great for anyone doing a lot of trades).

Cheers, Spiky


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palace
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Tuesday, September 14, 2004 - 07:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi spikey

i have been with e trade about a year and usually check out

prices on and off most days ,this is probably the second

time its happened

cant help you with the bells and whistles as i only use

the basic platform

i previously used AOT for several years and found their

trading platform excellent,but their access to checking out

your own account history for example on line , was non existant ,unless its changed.

apart from maybe one or two days of trades

you had to send an email and they replied by email

the e trade online account info seems much better

hope this helps

mick


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spiky
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Tuesday, September 14, 2004 - 11:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Mick
for info on Etrade and AOT. Its hard sometimes assessing brokers until you use them. Never thought of the ease of checking account. That's very good on Sanford I must say.

More info on Morrison for anyone interested as I have done a bit of sleuthing. Maybe should start another heading?
www.morrisonsecurities.com is the site. 1300886010 is phone no. I donít use it yet - am in process of deciding which to change to.

$10 is based on paying $150 per month (but pay year in advance) for webIRESS. $10 per trade for options as well. If you pay monthly its $15 per trade. If you donít mind htmlIRESS (live data but not streaming I believe) then its $100 per month. They also offer stoploss on options. No charge for moving stoploss.

Negatives I found so far are:
At this stage they pay no interest on bank account (but working on it).

Cant amalgamate 3 accounts that I trade, so would have to pay $150 for first a/c, plus reduced amount for others. Unlike Etrade which amalgamates trades to reduce/eliminate platform cost. With Etrade looks like no platform cost for webIRESS if you do 30 trades in a quarter. However, depending on how many trades you do, Morrison might work out cheapest online broker. Need to do your own maths.

Donít know how easy it is to follow your account (per comment by Palace).

Donít do international shares.

I just saw a small adv in Fin Review, they are just new co (took over ING trading venture per website) and dont seem to be known yet. Could this be a risk? Does anyone on the forum use them yet?

Cheers, Spiky


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buy_stop
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Tuesday, September 28, 2004 - 09:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



How greatly does this explosive move underscore the importance of the 2% rule!!

Imagine the pain and damage an account would incur if you were in a short position on 24 Sept, then on 27 Sept having it open up a massive 15% or more!!



Powerful message indeed - Risk no more than 2% of your equity on any one trade!!!

.


"If you can count your money, you don't have a billion dollars"
- J. Paul Getty, US oil industrialist (1892 - 1976)

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it in your pocket"
- Kin Hubbard (1868 - 1930)

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dennis_menace
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Tuesday, September 28, 2004 - 10:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for the advice BT - would have saved me lots


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palace
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Tuesday, September 28, 2004 - 11:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi buy stop

you said

Risk no more than 2% of your equity on any one trade!!!

my understanding of that rule is that it refers to where

you put your stop,in relation to how many shares you can

therefore buy/sell .in other words equity of $100.000 2% is

$2000,so if your stop is $1.00 away from your purchase

you buy/sell 2000 shares ,limiting your loss to $2000

in this case your stop would have been blown away going short

how do you interpret that rule?

good luck

mick

(Message edited by palace on September 28, 2004)


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buy_stop
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Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 12:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Palace,

Exactly my point - using your example, the 2% rule would have lost roughly $6k here.

As much as that is, imagine the destruction if we disregarded the 2% rule and perhaps used a gearing strategy to increase our exposure to a single issue?

Depending on the extent of the exposure, such a disastrous loss would likely wipe out all profits and substantially tear into the equity component of a portfolio.

Buy_stop

.


"If you can count your money, you don't have a billion dollars"
- J. Paul Getty, US oil industrialist (1892 - 1976)

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it in your pocket"
- Kin Hubbard (1868 - 1930)

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perler59
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Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 08:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This is a very good case for using guaranteed stops :-) Since most of us "short" via CFD's then we have no excuse... ?


I can NOT control the markets, so I MUST control myself.

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hilarius
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Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 09:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Perler

In principle you are clearly correct

In practice how much would guaranteed stops cost over a 12 month period ... compared to what they save?

Is not the cost substantial for a frequent trader, and is there a point where frequent trades would be too costly to insure, especially if the winning trade sizes and/or margins were very small?

Conclusion: Frequent Trading carries Inherently Greater Risk which is not able to be Fully Insured without Considerable Cost?

Longer term trades based on trend recognition can be more economically insured with guaranteed stop losses, with a lower proportion of gains being used to insure against loss?

Is there a mathematical formula which optimises the value of more expensive stop losses versus the average length of a trade and the average trade size?

Presumably the greater the trade size the more essential a guaranteed stop loss becomes (along with the viability and reliability of the stop loss provider)?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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perler59
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Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 12:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius,

Shorting in a bull market is not something anyone should be going frequently I think!

Each to his own.

Steve.


I can NOT control the markets, so I MUST control myself.

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hilarius
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Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 12:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Steve

I totally agree .. Weinstein advocates trading only in the direction of the market

I was referring to the more general issue of frequent trading whether long (in a rising market) or short (in a falling market)

What interests me is the trade size and term that is most suitable for guaranteed stop loss ... which obviously comes at a cost which needs to be factored into the trade

My conclusion is that high frequency low value trading would not be a good mix with guaranteed stop losses & since GLS is clearly the way to go ... high frequency and/or small trades may need to be foregone?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius







I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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soma
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Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 02:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Weinstein advocates trading only in the direction of the market

Weinstein maintains that trading against the trend "be the exception, certainly not the rule." As a hedge against your long positions nothing wrong to hold one short position but the important thing is it must be an outstanding candidate, what he terms as an "a+" because "there is no room for anything less" when trading against the overall trend.

Who knows perhaps if GSL were around then he would have advocated them instead of having a hedge position?

I like the idea of GSL but don't use them because the companies I trade through don't as yet offer them. I imagine they are certainly more feasible if you trade for the medium/longer term but as they are based on a percentage cost of the overall trade and not a set fee it at least still makes it viable for a relatively smaller trader to benefit from their use.

Note that I don't know the ins and outs of GSL and am basing my information from whats on the IG markets website which I presume to be the most popular "cfd" broker offering GSL for users of the forum. I also wonder how long it will take other "cfd" companies to offer this type of "insurance" if they can find out if it's making IG or others a nice little earner on the side

One thing to be aware of from this thread for a lot of people out there is if your trading with leverage BE VERY CAREFUL!!! Unless the system/s your using have proven they can consistently make money in bull and bear markets your potentially playing with fire. Just because you can trade a position with leverage far in excess of what you could with your own money doesn't mean that you should. I would maintain that even if your trading with leverage a 15% gap up on one stock even without a GSL shouldn't be enough to put you out of the markets- if it would, your taking too much risk!





1. Good short entry

2. Buy stop triggered for Weinstein trader

3. Buy stop triggered for Weinstein investor

4. No short entry Weinstein maintains once a stock has started to go into a consolidation pattern such as this their has to be another break-down of support for a continuation buy.

Regards,
Soma

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