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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

2011 October to December Challenge, Week 9

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through December 20, 2011 » 2011 October to December Challenge, Week 9

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p3t3
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Friday, November 25, 2011 - 05:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Welcome to the "September Equinox to December Solstice Challenge".

This Challenge will start on the week beginning October 3rd and run until December 30th over a period of 13 weeks. At the completion of that time an acknowledgement by way of the award of "(cyber) medals" of Gold, Silver and Bronze will be made to the top 3 achievers. Last place will also be acknowledged with the award of a "(cyber) wooden spoon".

This Weekly Comp is aimed at the non-professional market entrant with $5,000 drawn off his mortgage or credit card, a standard trading account and a day job (probably also with a wife and dependent kids).

For this stock tipping Challenge only a single entry will be allowed in any one trading week – being from Friday's close to the following Friday's close, unless original capital has been built up to $10,000 or more (see below). However, even for an entrant with an existing position, an LC (Long Continuous) or GTC (Good ‘Till Cancelled) entry posted before Friday’s close for the following week will not be rendered invalid by this rule. Entries posted will get the next available market open price for their entry, and Friday's close as the exit, unless otherwise specified (see below). The time-stamp of the posting will be used to determine which market open price is to be applied.

An intra-week "Stop" request may be posted on any day. If posted on a trading day before the day's open it will receive that day's open price as the exit price. If posted after the open the exit price will be the next day's open price, that being the nearest available exit. Activating that "Stop" would close the entrant's position until the start of the following week, and no new position may be opened for the purposes of the Comp until then. A new pick may be nominated towards the end of the week in which the "Stop" was applied for the following week's trading.

Only long positions may be nominated, with a unit price no lower than $0-05. On any day that a stock closes below $0-05 an automatic stop will be applied on that day, using the close price for that day as the exit price. No entries for warrants, exchange traded options or other derivative products will be accepted, only entries of ASX tickers for ordinary shares and ASX ticker "Gold".

Nominations should be accompanied by a chart clearly showing the Technical Analysis used, with a short explanation of how that Technical Analysis is being applied - Please Note: failure to do this could result in disqualification of the entry. It is preferred that Incredible Charts software be used for chart postings.

"Long Continuous" (LC) positions maybe be nominated prior to 4pm on Friday to maintain a new or existing position into the following week, or the following Comp. "Good 'Till Cancelled" (GTC) positions may also be nominated before Friday's close, and will be treated as an LC with an automatic renewal, within the duration of the current Comp. Carry-over of GTC and LC positions into a new Comp will require notification by way of a post to the weekly thread prior to the last Friday close of the current Comp.

Any entrant who has not elected, by way of a post in the weekly thread, to use their "Stop", "Long Continuous" or "Good 'Till Cancelled" option, or has not had an automatic stop applied for a close below $0-05, will automatically receive Friday's close as their exit.

An entrant who has a position that goes into a Trading Halt will be required to retain that position until the stock resumes trading. Prior to resumption of trading they may request a "Stop" at the price at which trading is resumed. Otherwise normal rules for closing or retaining an open position apply.

Each entrant will be awarded a starting capital of $5,000 cyber-dollars and gains on positions will be added to that amount on a weekly basis, while losses will be subtracted from it. Anyone reaching a capital amount of $10,000 or more may split their cyber-capital into 2 positions, allocating 50% of their total capital to each if they so choose, or may continue to use their total capital on a single position.

Short term weekly awards for First, Second, Third and Last place (spoon) will be acknowledged and recorded. The amount of gain or loss on the weekly position will be applied to the entrant's accumulated capital.

Any new entrant to the challenge should feel free to ask for help regarding posting, as there are many here familiar with the conditions and methods used.

Please place your tips and chart here in this thread.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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p3t3
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Friday, November 25, 2011 - 05:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



From Week 8 :

GameFisherman ERM GTC

Espresso ICX LC

Ragchewer RUM LC







I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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gamefisherman
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Friday, November 25, 2011 - 06:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gamefisherman ERM GTC please

On the back of recent significant drill results and a capital raising of around $7.4 mill at 22c, I am looking for support to hold around the 22c-24c mark with resistance looking to be around the 30-31c level. Based on an aggressive and accelerated drill program I am hoping that resistance will soon be taken out. Came out of a trading halt today after the capital raising announcement and another announcement about drilling results in the Gecko area. Seemed to hold its ground in a tough day.

Disclosure: Already holding and have recently added more to the cupboard.




Protect your capital and the rest will take care of itself with a solid trading plan that is adhered to every trade (PS THIS IS WRITTEN TO KEEP REMINDING ME TO STAY FOCUSSED AND FORGET NOISE)

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peterloh
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Saturday, November 26, 2011 - 12:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete,

I like to lower the VOR GTC. In its place I like to have the former TRH which today is known as POK.

peterloh POK LC

Currently the chart has not been converted in IC, thus I have to use TRH to give a representative view of POK.Hope you understand.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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jimmyswell
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Saturday, November 26, 2011 - 10:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



jimmyswell CPA L
c
After last week's bloodbath, I am playing super-cautious.
CPA has increasing volume over the past week, held its price during a down week and has a nearby resistance point to test soon.


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p3t3
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Saturday, November 26, 2011 - 03:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




peterloh wrote on Saturday, November 26, 2011 - 01:49 am:

I like to lower the VOR GTC. In its place I like to have the former TRH which today is known as POK.

peterloh POK LC


Hello Peterloh

Your timestamp indicates you're way too late for an LC for the coming week, which would have been available up to Friday's (November 25th) close.

The nearest available exit is Monday, which would mean the first available entry would be the close of Friday 2nd December for an LC.

Was that your intention?


best
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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p3t3
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Monday, November 28, 2011 - 05:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 9, Monday :



A more encouraging start for the current week, with Steven setting the
early pace.

Just a little less pessimism in the broader markets today.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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espresso
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Monday, November 28, 2011 - 05:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi P3t3,
VOR closed .074
cheers


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p3t3
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Monday, November 28, 2011 - 06:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

espresso said : VOR closed .074


Indeed it did, but Peterloh requested an exit on Saturday morning, meaning the first available exit was the Monday open - $0.073

best
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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espresso
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Monday, November 28, 2011 - 07:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks P3t3, Yes your right now that you mention it I do recall reading about the time stamp on Peterloh decision.
Cheers


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gdd3
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Tuesday, November 29, 2011 - 08:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dolphin, WHN, L

All systems go after Friday's TAZ "set-up" signals and ticked the final confirmation boxes late yesterday @ 5.8c. Only -ve is the overall "spookiness" of the markets in general(and that I didn't place my entry for Monday's open!).




Have a good and safe week!

Dolphin

P.S. Other TAZ'ers on the radar for the beginning of the week were/are NSL, AZH, ERM, MAP and VRX for those interested.


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stampy
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Tuesday, November 29, 2011 - 08:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Stampy L AZH

Chart to follow


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p3t3
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Tuesday, November 29, 2011 - 06:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 9, Tuesday :



Steven retains top spot with a very nice move.
GameFisherman, also showing a nice gain, is in pursuit.


Another up day for the broader markets, a little encouragement for the bulls.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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peterloh
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Wednesday, November 30, 2011 - 02:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry guys, I am travelling and not down under. I am easy with your decision.Probably I was late, so it is ok by me and thanks for putting it up with me.

Cheers,

Peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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p3t3
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Wednesday, November 30, 2011 - 03:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 9, Wednesday :



Steven has improved his position.
Most of the rest of us have slipped back, to a greater or lesser extent.


A sideways day in the broader market, as short covering has dried up and
market participants await the next piece of scary news.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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p3t3
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Thursday, December 01, 2011 - 03:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 9, Thursday :



Steven has again stretched his lead, with a weekly move that can only be
described as spectacular.

Daylight occupies the next placing, then the rest of the peloton.


Spectacular rally moves being seen across international markets. Seems the
big speculators are reversing positions. Anybody remember the old saying
about the steepest rallies occurring in bear markets? Just thinking out loud
here.....just my view, eh.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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ehmu
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Thursday, December 01, 2011 - 05:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




p3t3 wrote on Thursday, December 01, 2011 - 04:55 pm:

about the steepest rallies occurring in bear markets? Just thinking out loud
here.....just my view, eh.




You talk like a Canadian, eh ?

I think you're indulging in hyperbole with that bear rally observation, eh?.

Check your butt occasionally in this rapid under-damped price action, you never know when you could be taken to the wood shed to make you donation of flesh. No one will care if you are oblivious to the action, eh?.

ps
I read this weekend that in the last two months price moved more than $100 on the new york exchange at least 70% of the trading days. One needs to remember that since the price is exactly the same as it was two months ago, that millions to traders lost their collective asses by choosing a direction.---------wait for the move unless you're trading in the short term range, eh?.




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


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espresso
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Thursday, December 01, 2011 - 08:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi P3t3
ICX exit on open please
cheers


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steven
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Friday, December 02, 2011 - 08:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Can i exit IVA please


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gamefisherman
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Friday, December 02, 2011 - 10:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi P3t3

Can I please keep going with ERM for next week. I will post an updated chart and comments over the weekend.

Congratulations Steven on your IVA pick. In my mind, a superbly well entered and exited trade. :-)


Protect your capital and the rest will take care of itself with a solid trading plan that is adhered to every trade (PS THIS IS WRITTEN TO KEEP REMINDING ME TO STAY FOCUSSED AND FORGET NOISE)

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p3t3
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Friday, December 02, 2011 - 02:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

ehmu said : You talk like a Canadian, eh ?


Not if you hear the accent


quote:

....indulging in hyperbole with that bear rally observation....


Really ? I thought I was understating.....


quote:

....I read this weekend that in the last two months price moved more than $100 on the new york exchange at least 70% of the trading days. One needs to remember that since the price is exactly the same as it was two months ago, that millions to traders lost their collective asses by choosing a direction.----


Yea verily, this is a worthwhile observation. In a high-volatility sideways market the decision-making comes down to time-frame. Sideways in one time-frame, trending (towards a boundary) in another. It then all comes down to assessing where the "tipping points" or signal levels are....then whether the signal might or might not be false.

There are certainly strategies appropriate to such markets. The trick is in finding the appropriate strategy. And then deciding when the market has changed character....yet again.

But that's part of the fun in what we do here......eh.

just my view
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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steven
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Friday, December 02, 2011 - 02:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Long BKY GTC please


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gdd3
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Friday, December 02, 2011 - 03:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yep, my congrats also to Steven on what has been a great pick...and thanks for "leaving the door open" for the rest of us by giving us a reprieve by exiting this a.m.!

BKY???? There's hope for the rest of us yet!

Dolphin


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steven
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Friday, December 02, 2011 - 04:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




gamefisherman wrote on Friday, December 02, 2011 - 11:30 am:

Congratulations Steven on your IVA pick. In my mind, a superbly well entered and exited trade. :-)




Thanks


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steven
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Friday, December 02, 2011 - 04:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




gdd3 wrote on Friday, December 02, 2011 - 04:30 pm:

Yep, my congrats also to Steven on what has been a great pick...and thanks for "leaving the door open" for the rest of us by giving us a reprieve by exiting this a.m.!

BKY???? There's hope for the rest of us yet!

Dolphin




Thanks. Yes with hindsight the afternoon exit would of been better but i am not complaining. After 4 up days i was wary of profit taking and i also wanted to choose another pick for next week so i was conservative in the a.m exit. It hit my original $1.55 target today for the trade as i mentioned in the chart setup 3 weeks ago.

BKY has the same reverse head and shoulders pattern setup as IVA so time will tell in the next few weeks if it plays out or not. If i am wrong i will get out for a small loss.


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p3t3
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Friday, December 02, 2011 - 05:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 5, Friday...before any protests :



Steven locked in his profits, and an outstanding result, as the market
consolidated today.
Second and third places are showing quite respectable outcomes.


After an encouraging start to the week this table has ended up relatively
balanced between green and red.

US non-farm payrolls tonight, so there will likely be a fair amount of
"sidelines money" lurking. Might be interesting to see how "spooky" the
markets are after the announcement.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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p3t3
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Saturday, December 03, 2011 - 05:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 5, no protests received.....so final outcome :



Very nice result for Steven.

The bulk of picks hug the middle ground, with a couple of outliers, one at
each end of the table.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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peterloh
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Monday, December 05, 2011 - 02:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete,

The VOR was closed on Thursday, however I notice POK has not been raised. If POK cannot be raised as LC, is it ok to be POK L? Please let me know.

Cheers,

Peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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p3t3
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Monday, December 05, 2011 - 03:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

Peterloh said : The VOR was closed on Thursday, however I notice POK has not been raised.


Hello Peterloh,

your POK LC entry will be reflected in today's table. Because of the need to show exits in the week they were implemented any LC entries for entrants with an existing position will not be apparent until the Monday update.

Hope that's clear

best
p3t3







I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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peterloh
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Monday, December 05, 2011 - 09:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Pete, your effort is much appreciated.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

 
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KZLbati02-Dec-11  11:24 pm
2011 October to December Challenge, Week 8p3t319 26-Nov-11  04:35 pm
2011,,,October to December Challenge...Week 7p3t325 19-Nov-11  04:37 pm
AZZ - Antares Energy Limiteddennis_menace27 15-Nov-11  08:05 pm
2011...October to December Challenge...Week 6p3t318 12-Nov-11  11:05 pm
2011...January to March Challenge...Week 10dennis_menace39 12-Nov-11  06:52 pm
PPX msparks19 09-Nov-11  10:04 pm
2011...October to December Challenge...Week 5jimmyswell32 07-Nov-11  06:33 am
Lesson In Market Depth?msparks05-Nov-11  04:39 pm
2011...October to December Challenge...Week 4p3t322 29-Oct-11  04:42 pm

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