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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

LHG

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through 2004 » Archive through October 02, 2004 » LHG

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rf900man
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Username: rf900man

Post Number: 2
Registered: 09-2003

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Friday, August 06, 2004 - 02:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello fellow traders...can anyone give me their 2 cents worth about the takeover of Lihir. I have been holding for sometime but I thing now it is just smoke....any insite???


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muzza
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Username: muzza

Post Number: 146
Registered: 06-2003

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Saturday, August 28, 2004 - 06:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



rf900man,

Its sometime since you kicked off this thread - I have no idea about takeover rumours or otherwise of LHG.

However from a chart perspective LHG is approaching crunch time.

Daily Chart:

LHG1

The shadow of friday's candle (26/8) seems to push off the lower triangle trend line - looking for a quick scalp if LHG breaks through the top of the triangle.

cheers







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lucretius
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Username: lucretius

Post Number: 5
Registered: 07-2004

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Sunday, August 29, 2004 - 12:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Muzza,

I see an inverted head and shoulder pattern on your chart with a target of roughly 35 cents( Head around 90 and neckline around 1.25)but this pattern would need confirmed by a break above 1.25. A break of the downtrend line you show may be the first indication that the pattern may ultimately be confirmed. I seem to recall though that an inverted H&S may not be as reliable a formation in a down trend.

I hold LHG


No fact is so obvious that it does not at first produce wonder,
Nor so wonderful that it does not eventually yield to belief - De Rerum Natura

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muzza
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Username: muzza

Post Number: 148
Registered: 06-2003

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Sunday, August 29, 2004 - 12:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Lucretius,

Inv H&S is a potential on LHG - but its not there yet.

To me many if not all patterns are fickle things and even if the pattern completes there is nothing reliable about the price targets that they suggest (like from the head to the neckline projected up from the neckline break).

To me support & resistance are better tools, but every now and then I do dabble in patterns, and their interpretations. There is always more to learn about T/A, the challenge is then how to integrate knowledge into a robust trading system.

Thanks for your comments


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tony
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Post Number: 104
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Thursday, September 02, 2004 - 04:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



LHG has near 4% of issued shares changing hands today. Is there anyone knows anythings about it?

Gold price went up recently, but LHG drifted lower. I hope it is not another SGW in the making?

BTW, I hold LHG.


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suemac
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Username: suemac

Post Number: 125
Registered: 01-2003

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Thursday, September 02, 2004 - 07:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tony, It was quite a tussle on LHG today with refreshing Comsec screen. Would have been nerve wracking watching it live!


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tony
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Post Number: 105
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Thursday, September 02, 2004 - 10:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Suemac, it is really nerve wracking watching it live in the morning! Huge selling orders, no information. At one stage, only one million sth buying volume left on screen, and more than 29 million shares selling volume plus "2 U"! I even checked one PNG newspaper via Internet, just couldn't find a clue. And call me stupid, I didn't join the sellers today.


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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 597
Registered: 03-2003

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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 09:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tony,Suemac,Muzza, Lucretius & members,

Rocks in my head to even have a look into this one initially. With the price of gold up, bullish market,it was heading down south.There are easier money elsewhere unless you like to short??EMA 15 weeks weekly is south of 30 weeks. What does it tell us? We can forget about the little patterns in between, the general trend of the share is telling us something. More cautious way is for the golden cross to happen first. I need reminder like this to wake me up at times. Not that I do this often, the money has a better place to go to, perhaps the children charity.

You guys see what I see?

Cheers,

Peterloh


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

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shubh_labh
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Username: shubh_labh

Post Number: 86
Registered: 06-2004

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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 09:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter regards and with all due respects. Please do correct me...... LHG appears ok for trend trades as well as quick in and out traders? I wont touch it.

Good wishes for the day.


Please do not consider my mention of any stocks to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn.

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lucretius
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Username: lucretius

Post Number: 7
Registered: 07-2004

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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 10:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for your comments Peterloh.

I didn't like the way things were headed a couple of days ago and bailed out at $1.05, not long after my post actually. I sometimes forget the basics like trade with the trend and consequently pay the price.

Having said that this stays on my watchlist to see if there is a change in sentiment over the next few weeks for interests sake.

Fortunately I got into CSL (Warrants) instead before yesterdays spike up !

I sometimes forget the basics like trade with the trend. CSL does have a better trend of late !!


No fact is so obvious that it does not at first produce wonder,
Nor so wonderful that it does not eventually yield to belief - De Rerum Natura

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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 599
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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 10:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Shubh_labh,

You mean selling shorts, I hope.Otherwise we are violating the very principle of trading with the trend. Yes you can made money trading a stock that is trending down, do you really wish to tell me the risk is well worth it? I hope not.In theory and practice I have learned, it is not a game worth playing.

cheers,

Peterloh


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

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tony
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Username: tony

Post Number: 106
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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 10:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter,

You are 100% right on this one. I bought 2 weeks ago when it went over 30WMA. But I didn't sell when it move down again, because gold price looks like rising... I am now stack with this one, after turned profit into loss...

My belief system is shaking...


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malian
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Username: malian

Post Number: 38
Registered: 08-2004

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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 12:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ok,everyone,let's have a look about lhg and it's pattern
First,just like rf900man's words,LHG do make a big triangle trend,but anyone remember triangle is a settle trend?
It means,he will along old trend after a rest.
So,there have somebody who not didn't endeavor in study of TA,go back and read sutra again


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malian
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Username: malian

Post Number: 39
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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 12:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Secondly,let's have a look about it's operating.
I list gold's wave area in recently years underside(USD)
1997:281~338
1998:275~315
1999:252~325
2000:265~322
2001:256~295
2002:282~350
2003:321~406
2004:380~424
SO just like tony's words,the price of gold do raise up recently years.
Next,let's see LHG's operating result
Income statement
sales revenue 2003($000) 2002($000)
199,843 208,623
totle revenue 214,509 213,189

Operating expenses
Mining expenses 68,017 60,316
processing costs 35326 28533
power generation costs
26,473 23,899
General and administrative costs
45,444 36,356
......

operating profit
37,313 72,363
Incom tax 0 16,426
Net profit from ordinary activities after taxation
34,778 53,247



WOL,gold's price up and up,LHG's profit down and down
But from reports we know,LHG's output should improved(from power cost......),but sales revenue glide down,and operating expenses climb fast!
I really admire the CEO of this company,if I am CEO,I will fire myself.
OK,there have others report,but I don't want to typing too many,my finger tied.I only want to tell you,his inventories have a few increase.

Finally,what I want to say is I guess takeover maybe not happen,because he had get $156,240 from issue of share captial.


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malian
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Username: malian

Post Number: 40
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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 12:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I will hold on read his report,I think I will finish today,
Now,I have a suppose,his report of 2004 will better then 2003,but I think it can't help current trade


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shubh_labh
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Username: shubh_labh

Post Number: 88
Registered: 06-2004

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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 12:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter regards. I agree it is not worth it besides I am not that well versed in minning sector to take any risks. I have tried only once in recent months, guess got lucky and made few bucks with PEM.

Is it possible that buyers are being cautious after debacle of SGW?


Please do not consider my mention of any stocks to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn.

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muzza
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Username: muzza

Post Number: 155
Registered: 06-2003

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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 07:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Peterloh,

I went into LHG on the long legged doji of 19/5 - I dont usually get that lucky on entry! (Or should I say I dont normally plan that well).

Anyway, I'm not sure if you were asking a question of me above or merely posing a rhetorical question.

Here is what I did.

I took partial profits on LHG when it ran up from the doji entry - I covered my position with a nice bonus percentage on 14/7 (on the bullish outside day after two red candles).

That left me playing in LHG with OPM (other peoples money). And to be perfectly honest the position was so small I didnt stalk it at all - which is not real smart in any event.

On 28/8 I posted (above) - looking to see if LHG had other forum interest - and as stated I was looking to see if it would break north out of the pattern formation.

The history is it didnt and I left the LHG dance floor on 31/8

You were right - there were better places to put money - like in ABB !!!

cheers


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_cj_
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Thursday, September 23, 2004 - 10:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I thought i would refresh this and see what people think. I have to admit i have only been studying charts the last month or so and am still wearing my floaties in the baby pool but the more i look at LHG the more i like the possibility of a short. I also like the look of a long term position.

After heavy downfalls over the last year LHG looks to be finally starting to flatten out over the last two months. I will be looking to try and get in early in the high 80's low 90's; depending of how much it stabilises over the next week or two.

A few notes to add for the losses in the first half are the construction of a geo-thrmal power station brought forward from 2005, the acquisition of additional equipment and the failure of their oxygen plant. A $5 million insurance claim from the oxygen plant is also expected in the last half. I havent been able to find any news to whether this has been resolved or not but will be waiting on the third quarter report.

Comments are welcome; am on a steep learning curve.




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rederob
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Username: rederob

Post Number: 338
Registered: 10-2002

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Sunday, September 26, 2004 - 11:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



cj
Lihir is a good long term prospect, bedevilled by engineering, production and hedging concerns.
A string of downgrades or negative market announcements has let LHG down over the past year, and it is unlikely the company will be in a position to deliver a good financial report till 2005/2006 - after the geothermal plant cuts in and and reduce the substantial energy costs faced by the company.
As a trading stock, there is a vast fan of followers that try to ride its daily and weekly trends.
What you might note is that LHG has not responded well to the rising price of gold recently, and this is not a good sign.
My view is that LHG is a good buy at around 90cents, and a prospect for the longer term if bought over a dollar.


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leeroy
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Tuesday, September 28, 2004 - 07:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



LHG on the rise again...does anyone know why? Is this the beginning of something or just a dead cat bounce?

Cheers...Leeroy


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archer
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Username: archer

Post Number: 289
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Tuesday, September 28, 2004 - 08:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sometimes gold leads the gold stocks and sometimes the
gold stocks lead the price of gold
I think this time its the latter and heres is the reason
-------------------------------
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?StoryId=Cqvy:WaebqLqWmde2mtG


LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.S. President George Bush is being urged to signal a dollar devaluation of up to 20% to rebalance the global economy ahead of Friday's Group of Seven and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, the U.K.'s The Business newspaper reported.







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_cj_
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Tuesday, September 28, 2004 - 09:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My opinion is that it was just another 'dead cat bounce'; I will have to remember that one leeroy Just look at the history of the chart and as rederob pointed out a vast fan of followers. Volume was nothing out of the ordinary also.

I was in at .99 and out at 1.05 (albeit a paper stock for the asx.com.au game) because I am predicting that it will fall again and i will be looking for another low point for another short.

Who knows though, LHG might stabilise and maybe go into an uptrend in the next couple of weeks as i think that maybe this stock is a little undervalued. Just an opinion.

 
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