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2012 January to March Challenge, Week 8

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through January 17, 2013 » 2012 January to March Challenge, Week 8

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p3t3
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Friday, February 17, 2012 - 06:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Welcome to the "January Equinox to March Solstice Challenge".

This Challenge will start on the week beginning January 2nd and run until March 30th over a period of 13 weeks. At the completion of that time an acknowledgement by way of the award of "(cyber) medals" of Gold, Silver and Bronze will be made to the top 3 achievers. Last place will also be acknowledged with the award of a "(cyber) wooden spoon".

This Weekly Comp is aimed at the non-professional market entrant with $5,000 drawn off his mortgage or credit card, a standard trading account and a day job (probably also with a wife and dependent kids).

For this stock tipping Challenge only a single entry will be allowed in any one trading week – being from Friday's close to the following Friday's close, unless original capital has been built up to $10,000 or more (see below). However, even for an entrant with an existing position, an LC (Long Continuous) or GTC (Good ‘Till Cancelled) entry posted before Friday’s close for the following week will not be rendered invalid by this rule. Entries posted will get the next available market open price for their entry, and Friday's close as the exit, unless otherwise specified (see below). The time-stamp of the posting will be used to determine which market open price is to be applied.

An intra-week "Stop" request may be posted on any day. If posted on a trading day before the day's open it will receive that day's open price as the exit price. If posted after the open the exit price will be the next day's open price, that being the nearest available exit. Activating that "Stop" would close the entrant's position until the start of the following week, and no new position may be opened for the purposes of the Comp until then. A new pick may be nominated towards the end of the week in which the "Stop" was applied for the following week's trading.

Only long positions may be nominated, with a unit price no lower than $0-05. On any day that a stock closes below $0-05 an automatic stop will be applied on that day, using the close price for that day as the exit price. No entries for warrants, exchange traded options or other derivative products will be accepted, only entries of ASX tickers for ordinary shares and ASX ticker "Gold".

Nominations should be accompanied by a chart clearly showing the Technical Analysis used, with a short explanation of how that Technical Analysis is being applied - Please Note: failure to do this could result in disqualification of the entry. It is preferred that Incredible Charts software be used for chart postings.

"Long Continuous" (LC) positions maybe be nominated prior to 4pm on Friday to maintain a new or existing position into the following week, or the following Comp. "Good 'Till Cancelled" (GTC) positions may also be nominated before Friday's close, and will be treated as an LC with an automatic renewal, within the duration of the current Comp. Carry-over of GTC and LC positions into a new Comp will require notification by way of a post to the weekly thread prior to the last Friday close of the current Comp.

Any entrant who has not elected, by way of a post in the weekly thread, to use their "Stop", "Long Continuous" or "Good 'Till Cancelled" option, or has not had an automatic stop applied for a close below $0-05, will automatically receive Friday's close as their exit.

An entrant who has a position that goes into a Trading Halt will be required to retain that position until the stock resumes trading. Prior to resumption of trading they may request a "Stop" at the price at which trading is resumed. Otherwise normal rules for closing or retaining an open position apply.

Each entrant will be awarded a starting capital of $5,000 cyber-dollars and gains on positions will be added to that amount on a weekly basis, while losses will be subtracted from it. Anyone reaching a capital amount of $10,000 or more may split their cyber-capital into 2 positions, allocating 50% of their total capital to each if they so choose, or may continue to use their total capital on a single position.

Short term weekly awards for First, Second, Third and Last place (spoon) will be acknowledged and recorded. The amount of gain or loss on the weekly position will be applied to the entrant's accumulated capital.

Any new entrant to the challenge should feel free to ask for help regarding posting, as there are many here familiar with the conditions and methods used.

Please place your tips and chart here in this thread.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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p3t3
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Friday, February 17, 2012 - 06:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:


Espresso said - "My pick for week 8 is syr LC cheers"

Stampy said - "Stampy LC LNG"









I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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jimmyswell
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Saturday, February 18, 2012 - 08:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



jimmyswell EVN L
e
For Evolution Mining, I'm counting on the triple doji showing enduring market support despite the 3-day decline in the wider market.


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espresso
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Saturday, February 18, 2012 - 09:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





strong candle on Friday reversing the pullback trend from the previous few day. this is by no means a confirmation however I'm prepared to take the gamble. consecutive strong candles on the weekly with the bulls pushing up the price for last weeks candle. MACD histogram is strong and trending above zero. TMF also trending above zero on the weekly and has turned north on the daily. All this is further supported with volume on the weekly.
Cheers


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ehmu
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Sunday, February 19, 2012 - 06:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Look for things that you don't accept!

It'll save you a lot of time and money.


Hi Folks:

That is one of the most valued ideas that was given to me along the way. Don't get me wrong, I don't totally command this idea, but my pick this week would be AFR_ax; if it weren't for this guidance.

Looking at the charts, the high of the last trading day stopped short of the 144ema (150sma). That's it ! Rejected.

The rest of the chart is so seductive. I'll try to explain a few of the things that I really like.

The pull-back price stopped exactly at the new short term up trend line.

The pull-back price stopped exactly at the breakout price of the new short term trend break-out price. (where the new trend price closed above the long term down trend).

The RSI respected the 50% level on the pull-back bounce.

And I almost forgot---oil is popping along with the Persian gulf.


(Message edited by ehmu on February 19, 2012)


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


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ehmu
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Sunday, February 19, 2012 - 06:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)









_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


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breaker_1
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Sunday, February 19, 2012 - 12:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AZH
Nice trending stock
entered a while back and looking good






The road to success is always under construction





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elisabeth
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Sunday, February 19, 2012 - 06:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Elisabeth MNC L

A revisit to MNC. The last time a candle like Friday's appeared below 17c back in September, MNC had a spectacular rise. TMF is obligingly diverging again and volume on the down moves is small. Resistance does loom overhead but I'm hopeful MNC will bombard it's way through this week.

Happy week everyone

mnc dly


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whiteowl
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Monday, February 20, 2012 - 12:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete and All, its been a BIT Long since my last entry,
so here it is .. BIT Long
TAZ .. Close > 10SMA and 30EMA > 65 EMA > 150EMA
S/R at 13 (Fib 61.8 at 13.5)
Last $Vol Candle launched from 13c
Needs some liquidity for this one to work ..
Cheers all



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stampy
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Monday, February 20, 2012 - 12:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





Chart showing, support after rally i think, ready for next move higher.
Very steep support line I know but it could happen,
Higher low's showing the short term trend.

The Gap is now a long way below but It show's a strong change of trend.

Regards
Stampy


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p3t3
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Monday, February 20, 2012 - 05:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 8, Monday :



Spectacular return to the table by WhiteOwl, just edging past Espresso,
whose run of good stock picks has been decidedly impressive, and - we
sincerely hope - financially rewarding.
Rags has made an excellent start to the week, though is closely followed
by Steven.


An up day for the broader market, with the Small Ords, Energy and
Materials outperforming...in that order. Most of the benefit in this table
has accrued to those in continuing positions, or who used the Friday entry
option...apart from the table leader - WhiteOwl.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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p3t3
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Monday, February 20, 2012 - 06:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

Ehmu said : but my pick this week would be AFR_ax; if it weren't for this guidance.

Looking at the charts, the high of the last trading day stopped short of the 144ema (150sma). That's it ! Rejected.


Hal,

it has been suggested to me that this was actually a pick. I thought it just an explanation of why it wasn't a pick.

What was your intention?

best
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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ehmu
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Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 01:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




p3t3 wrote on Monday, February 20, 2012 - 07:25 pm:

just an explanation of why it wasn't a pick.




You understood my meaning perfectly peter.

The action on AFR_ax today demonstrates the next challenge to me as a trader, not to lament when a marginal choice could have made money.

This is difficult to do, because it would have made me money possibly, and also I have to admit that the rule didn't work for a positon entry this time. Who knows if the exit would have been profitable ?

The rule didn't work this time, and I'm not allowed to change it until I gain some insight about when the rule can be bent.

Thanks for the opportunity to have my obtuse writing style understood, my apologies for the confusion.


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


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p3t3
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Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 01:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



p3t3 MLD GTC



Too far too fast in the run up from $1-90 to over $2-25, so has spent the last six days
consolidating. If the uptrend is to resume it should start here or hereabouts. A close
below $2-05 would suggest a prudent exit and reassess.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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msparks
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Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 06:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



VMG long thanks




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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espresso
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Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 07:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks for the clarification EHMU,
Sorry about the confusion P3t3, Cheers


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gdd3
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Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 08:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



DOLPHIN, RRS, L




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p3t3
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Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 12:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

Espresso said : Sorry about the confusion P3t3, Cheers


G'day George

No apologies....please!
Your efforts in checking that the scoreboard stays accurate and on track are appreciated.
Genuinely appreciated.

best
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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ehmu
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Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 06:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




p3t3 wrote on Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 01:50 pm:

Genuinely appreciated.




ditto that George !


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


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p3t3
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Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 07:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 8, Tuesday :



The top three positions remain the same, though only WhiteOwl has
avoided some price slippage.


An up day for the broader market, with Energy, Materials and the Small
Ords all outperforming. The gains don't seem all that evenly spread though,
as only JimmySwell and Shawky in this table saw any advance.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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gamefisherman
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Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 11:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



gamefisherman ERM GTC please

With volumes increasing,a move towards positive money flows, what looks to me like a cross towards an opening of the bollinger bands, increasing market depth, backed by an aggressive drilling campaign with some $11mill in the bank or thereabouts from memory, I am looking for ERM to close above resistance around mid 20, push through 27-28 which has previously been sticking point and from there who knows......Been happy to see support holding in the low 20s since the capital raising last year.....


Protect your capital and the rest will take care of itself with a solid trading plan that is adhered to every trade (PS THIS IS WRITTEN TO KEEP REMINDING ME TO STAY FOCUSSED AND FORGET NOISE)

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p3t3
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Wednesday, February 22, 2012 - 07:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 8, Wednesday :



A great move by Espresso has overshadowed a move that was nearly as
impressive by WhiteOwl. Only Stampy looks close enough to mount a
challenge to the leaders.

Another sideways day for the broader market. Energy outperformed
significantly ( a 2.5% + move by Woodside probably a major factor), the
Small Ords and Materials outperformed only marginally.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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whiteowl
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Wednesday, February 22, 2012 - 09:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Whiteowl, Sell BIT at Thursday Open please Pete.

I think its run out of puff.
I am off to Perth to paddle the waves to Rottnest Island.
Hope to be back (sharks willing) for an entry on Tuesday.
Cheers All
Owl


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espresso
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Wednesday, February 22, 2012 - 10:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Whiteowl, first I must congratulate you on your pick it truly is a blinder as it came from no were. in comparison to SYR which had some up trend. I think there's a bit more up swing to BIT however you have made you decision. Once again fantastic pick and congratulation.
On a personal matter that's interesting your heading away as I'm also heading out to Discovery Bay.
Cheers & enjoy.
Espresso


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msparks
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Thursday, February 23, 2012 - 12:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



vmg LC please


"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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ehmu
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Thursday, February 23, 2012 - 01:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ARF! ARF! AR-R-RF!









_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


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p3t3
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Thursday, February 23, 2012 - 05:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 8, Thursday :



SYR continues to perform beautifully for Espresso.
Stampy has vaulted over WhiteOwl to claim the silver position.


A marginally negative day for the broader market, with Energy again
outperforming hugely, as tensions over Iran continue to percolate. The
Small Ords outperformed with a break-even outcome, while Materials
marginally underperformed.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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p3t3
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Friday, February 24, 2012 - 04:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 8, Friday....before any protests :



SYR has held onto its gains to deliver Espresso the gold position.
The silver and bronze positions are unchanged, though Stampy's LNG only
just avoided slipping below WhiteOwl's BIT.


Another nominally up day for the broader market that was really more
sideways than up. Energy finally underperformed, while the Small Ords
marginally outperformed and Materials more significantly outperformed.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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ken
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Friday, February 24, 2012 - 05:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Pete,

SYR can't be closed because it is in a trading halt

Ken


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p3t3
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Friday, February 24, 2012 - 05:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

Ken said : SYR can't be closed because it is in a trading halt


Thanks Ken,

that piece of information got by me.
I'll update the Scoreboard before tomorrow's declaration of outcomes.

best
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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gdd3
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Friday, February 24, 2012 - 05:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



How things can change in 8mins....RRS at 15:51 last trade 18c...then in comes a big seller at 15:52 and "SPLAT", RRS down 11.11% to close at 16c....Man thats a week's steady work gone in 8 mins!

....and once again I have to thank my good friend Mr Loh for saving me from complete disgrace with his pick POK!

....Oh well, back to the drawing board!

Dolphin

P.S. Great result to the top 3, well done!


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breaker_1
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Friday, February 24, 2012 - 08:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



RRS Classic pump and dump


The road to success is always under construction





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surferdude
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Saturday, February 25, 2012 - 11:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I actually own real shares in POK so how happy am I







"Vision is not enough; it must be combined with venture. It is not enough to stare up the steps; we must step up the stairs."
- Vaclav Havel

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p3t3
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Saturday, February 25, 2012 - 06:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Week 8, no protests received.....so final outcome :



Great stock picking by Espresso, Stampy and WhiteOwl.


It was an up week for the broader market, and both Materials and the
Small Ords certainly participated. The bulk of gains occurred in the first
two days, and were far from evenly distributed - which shows up in the
variable outcomes in this table.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

 
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