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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

OEX - Big new drilling program

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through 2004 » Archive through October 02, 2004 » OEX - Big new drilling program

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marsupial
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Username: marsupial

Post Number: 25
Registered: 01-2004

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Saturday, September 18, 2004 - 05:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The share price closed at over $1 for the first time on Friday. Two weeks ago it was 16c. What one good oil strike can do.

By monday COB the Don Juan well should have hit the target. More excitement or disappointment. The chart went up vertically, but left a gap mid 50's.

Unlikely to be filled???

I still hold a few. Got in at IPO stage and bought more at 20 and 24c recently. Sold 75% at average of 82c.

Where to from here?


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bandicoot02
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Registered: 03-2004

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Sunday, September 19, 2004 - 10:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



market cap is still only about 24mill - plenty of upside potential-they will need to raise some cash soon, Director bought 300k worth of shares at 93c,I can't see oex falling to far below $1, I bought some @ 1.02, fairly risky but I think worth the potential reward.







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fundy
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Sunday, September 19, 2004 - 03:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ORL worth watching, all time high is $3.30 so some upside possible.

The following Chart displays uptrends in a variety of indicators.

orl_ax18mar04_to_...


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fundy
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Sunday, September 19, 2004 - 03:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OEX also displays a good uptrend. Notice the explosive move on 6/9, now to watch for the next!

Chart below.

oex_ax18mar04_to_...


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lulu
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Sunday, September 19, 2004 - 06:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My broker who put me onto them at 19c told me they are expecting $1.20 short term and $2 - $3 within a year. I sold half my position at 81c and have now bought more again to add to original half at $1.02..couldn't resist. I hope he's right. He's done me proud so far!


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dexta_dark
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Username: dexta_dark

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Registered: 08-2004

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Friday, September 24, 2004 - 07:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kudlow & Cramer this morning said to over-weight your portfolio with oil. I watched it at lunch time when it was trading mid 80s and I tried to get in at 90 at 3:59pm but I got locked out by the everyone else getting in. Needless to say I will be getting in at market on Monday because despite the chart not giving up too much, I am a sucker for spec stocks. I would be weary of .97 cents as from the limited data on the "new" OEX it seems to be only resistance marker we have.

Good luck to anyone in this one, it could be a very bumpy ride. I don't personally see it doing much more than $1.10, but its a long way from there and I would love to see it prove me wrong.



DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!


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lulu
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Friday, September 24, 2004 - 07:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hello Dexta dark, I am in OEX and praying it flies! I have held it since 19c and bought more at $1.02 and whoops!! forgot to exit, didnt I? Or was too scared to!

I have a very exciting email that my broker sent me a few days ago..

Hi All,

For those in OEX you should find the following interesting ... still very bullish, I had it re-explained to me in laymans terms so hopefully we can all pretty much get the gist of it.

Basically saying that the EP27 that OEX is farming into has about 15 targets within the licence and the largest target will be drilled in early 2005 Have a look at announcements from GOG - looks a punt too.
TCF is Trillion Cubic Feet of gas

So each 1 Trillion cft is worth A$375million to Oilex & lets say they issue
6m new shares for 40m total, that is worth;
$9.37 per OEX share, per 1 TCF, at the lower cost of 50c/1,000cft.
2 TCF is worth $18.70
4 TCF is worth $37.50
6 TCF is worth $75
He is just raising some potential values should the Otway Basin drilling prove successful. I am hearing that it is a pretty low risk drill. So if you ride out some of the short term volatility and if the cap raising is in the form of convertible notes , the price has limited downside from here. The upside is potentially enourmous. They need the money though (about $10m) and as long as they can keep the new issue of shares small, then the leverage remains.
These figures look pretty ridiculous but they are , in this blokes opinion, best case scenarios.
Barcoo Junction is still to come and it is a 36 million barrel target. At net profit per barrel of $15/20 per barrel, then the upside potential from Barcoo alone is still $10.00 per share plus.
You wouldn't want to NOT have a position in this stock
PT

I really dont know when to exit on this news! My Gann range takes me to $1.22 so I think I will sell half my position and hang on and see, with tighter stops this time!!


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bandicoot02
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Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 05:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



new annoucement released after market closed, proposed 8m capital raising.


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lulu
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Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 09:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I am not too good on fundamentals Bandicoot02...where do you think from here? (not looking at the broker's email).


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bandicoot02
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Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 10:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I think with such high volume and with oilers so hot at the moment that up is the only way to go. if it jumps to about $1.50 in the short term I may sell and below 75c I would buy some more. Im new to oil stocks so Im not sure how high they can go.


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dexta_dark
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Monday, September 27, 2004 - 11:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So I jumped in like I said I would. I had a buy in before market opened at .91 and watched the sellers come in so I changed it to .82, hoping, and missed that and chased it up to 0.89. Then I placed my sell at .97, that would have been killer for me, but I went against my charts and took it out as it approached and got burned when I was sure it would break 1.00. So alas it didn't and my greed got the best of me. I know I am reaching with this chart but I am hoping that if it closes above 1.00 tomorrow then it will break this crappy looking ascending triangle and we will all be on a winner. The problem from a techincal analysis point of view is there is just not enough data here. So I am going with the seat of my pants approach to investing and throwing caution to the wind and just hoping it goes again. Good luck everyone......








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marsupial
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Monday, September 27, 2004 - 11:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Broker presentations continuing on basis of the presentation lodged with ASX and on Oilex web site.

Sure to keep some heat in SP until Streeton spud in October. This is a highly prospective well with 8mmbl reservoir possible.

Next year's ELL 27 Otway offshre well is the big Kahuna which could see the SP go to many multiples of present prices. Of course they have to hit for this to happen.

Still holding modust holding after selling down after RS success.

 
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