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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

List of double/triple tops

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through 2004 » Archive through October 08, 2004 » List of double/triple tops

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suemac
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Username: suemac

Post Number: 152
Registered: 01-2003

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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 07:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



In my idle moments I have managed a visual scan of my workbooks. Lots of stocks testing/retesting of or double/potential double/triple tops forming:

ACC, ABC, ADB, AGL, AHS, ALL, ALN, ALS, ALZ, ANZ, APE, AXA, BBG, CAB, CIY, CML, COA, CXP, DOW, FUN, FWD, GNS, GPG, GRD, GWA, HIL, IAG, JBM, KIM, MAY, MIG, MTT, MXI, NCM, NFD, NUF, ORG, PBL, PMC, PMG, PPT, RIO, ROC, SFE, SGB, SGT, SHL, SHV, SIG, SPC, STO, SUN, TAP, WAN, WBC, WES, WOR, WOW,

and these are only the ones at the all-time high level. Plenty of others forming at lower highs too. Interesting coincidence with XAO at all-time highs.

Thought this may be of interest to the forum. Comments/ discussion welcome.

Susan


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nightstalker
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Username: nightstalker

Post Number: 450
Registered: 04-2004

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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 08:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Susan - are we looking at the same charts? I can't for the life of me see a double top, or even the glimmer of one, in ALL, ANZ, BBG, DOW (which is coming off a triple bottom) or many of the others. Maybe we understand double tops to mean different things......

A classic double top, as I understand it, can be seen on the chart for CBA in April then June/July. Another example would be KIM in March/April for the first top then July/August for the second.

Of course, on a much shorter time scale, one can find many double tops, but generally they fall into the category of just sideways consolidation, at least that's how I see it.

Others may disagree, and I'd be interested in any comments if I'm interpreting this wrongly :-)








--
Best wishes,

NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

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nightstalker
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Post Number: 451
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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 08:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry - didn't post the charts to illustrate my points:

Here's ALL:

all

Next is DOW, where the triple bottom can be clearly seen:

dow

...and CBA then KIM showing what I understand by double tops:

cba

kim

Hope that all makes sense :-)

Interesting discussion you could have started here, Susan :-)



--
Best wishes,

NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

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suemac
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Post Number: 154
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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 08:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nightstalker

Just checked KIM and that's what I understand as a double top. I have attached charts, monthly, because what I am talking about can be seen clearer on the monthly, although the weekly charts are good as well.

I posted the list both in the short and long-term thread; perhaps it should have been posted under the Chart Patterns thread?

I trade longer term so what I'm saying here is I look for reversal patterns at these points; if we have a lower trough you can sell half; if the stock continues up you buy back in. You can also look at it from the point of a trade if the stock trends through the double top, retraces to that top and then takes off on volume. Others may see this situation as an opportunity to go short.

What really caught my attention was the number of stocks with double/triple/potential tops at the same time the XAO was at an all-time high.

Susan


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suemac
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Post Number: 155
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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 08:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nightstalker, Having trouble with charts. I managed it elsewhere but no matter how much I shrink it, the charts won't fit! Anyway, try your own monthly or weekly charts.


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suemac
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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 08:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Trying again!





(Message edited by robin on October 04, 2004)


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nightstalker
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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 10:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Aha - I see where we're seeing it differently Susan :-) If you see what I mean.... ;)

I'm looking at daily charts, and you're looking at weeklies or monthlies. That explains it. I trade basically a few days to several weeks, so I work off daily charts, while keeping an eye on trends on the weekly charts, a la Elder's advice. (i.e. one timescale up from one's usual).

The charts I posted were all daily charts. I can also see where your tops are on the longer-term charts, so basically we agree, but in different time-warps....



--
Best wishes,

NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

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dunlop
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Post Number: 125
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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 10:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Brave man (or lady) who shorts ALL at this point. A "double top" implies a second failed attempt to crack resistence. I see no indication of failure as yet.

Cheers for the list all the same, definitely some interesting picks in there.

-dunlop


"If the world's going to hell then I may as well join the party, and the party's on Wall Street."

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julles
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Saturday, October 02, 2004 - 11:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting thoughts for the reason to why as to why not from all.

I'll look deeper Tuesday.


Julles


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shawky
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Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 10:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys
I was stumped that ALL was in the list too, but as I thought the double top may have been on the weekly/monthly chart I posted my thoughts on the long term thread by Sue. Thanks again Sue.

https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/316907/360239.html

regards
Shawky


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ken
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Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 11:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I am interested in exactly what qualifies as a double top or bottom. My current reference is Guppy's Chart Trading, where he says :-

These construction rules deliver a high probability of successfully selecting the future direction of price. Less rigid rules have a lower level of probability of success.

1. Significant double bottoms occur in stocks with strong trends. The first bottom is a significant and clear low.

2. The price level at the second bottom must be within a cent (or a tick) of the first bottom price.

3. The two bottoms must be separated by at least several days of price action that rallies from the first low to a peak then retreats to a second low. Longer patterns where the lows are separated by several weeks are more reliable.

4. Trading volume must be steady and consistent. Double bottoms in thin markets are not strong indicators.

5. These are bottom patterns. They do not occur in the middle of up or down trends. They are infrequent patterns.

I am interested in all your experiences with rules this rigid and rules less rigid than these. How tough do we need to be?

Regards, Ken







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suemac
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Sunday, October 03, 2004 - 04:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ken, following is part of a post on the long-term thread.

"I was taught:

1. A stock retraces, 100, 150, 200, 250% (or multiples of 50%) of the distance between the tops and the low between the two peaks.

2. The trend from the second/third peak has changed when you have a lower peak and a lower trough; others say it is not a double top until the trough between the two peaks is taken out. It may confirm the double top but by then it's too late to sell; a more protective action would be to sell half if there is a reversal signal at the double top and you have the change in trend and buy back in if the stock trades back up.

3. The greater the distance between tops, the more significant they are.

4. The closer together the tops, the less tolerance in price, ie a double top of $2.00 five weeks apart would be more "authentic" than a top at $2.00 and $1.90 in the same timeframe.

5. Triple tops are more significant than double tops.

6. If a stock is testing a top for the fourth time, it is likely to go straight through that level."

7. When a double top and a double bottom occur, the one further (in time) apart dominates. So in the case of a double top in June 01 and Jan 03 and a double bottom in Dec 00 and Dec 03, the double bottom would dominate.

The only rigidity I know relates to price, and as I deal mainly with weekly charts that's where I look. But on a day chart, if the tops or bottoms were only weeks apart, the price would have to be exact, whereas on the longer term I use a band with 1.5% tolerance.

Don't forget, we are trading the probability that if a stock has retraced from a level previously, it is likely to at least hesitate at that level before trending through or reversing. It's not an absolute and there would be plenty of charts to confirm that; it is a probability. How high? Not sure; it's a wait and see proposition.

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