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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

AJM (Altura Mining)

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » AJM (Altura Mining)

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benson
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016 - 11:59 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well ... it appears I'll be starting the AJM thread Tryhay

It's a small lithium play

I re-entered this morning ..

Green arrows are entries, red are exits.





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benson
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016 - 12:28 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good news story released today - Supply agreement with Lionergy for 100kT/yr of 6% Li2O.

Expect some profit taking coming up on the news. But medium term "may" provide some investor confidence.







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archer
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016 - 12:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I wonder if the lithium bubble is starting to POP ????


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msparks
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Perhaps you left out the "holy grail" indicator with this trade

STOP LOSS or better still a GTC


"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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tryhay
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016 - 01:54 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Benson,

Nice to see Archer & Msparks on deck. The list of Li stocks is long and distinguished! - Just a matter of finding them at the start of the pop rather than 1/2 way through. I think Li is OK till they squeeze the most out of each pump and then "they" will probably wheel out the "Peak Oil" fiasco or some other matter.

msparks I'm sure you will have an old "holy grail" indicator spare that could be implemented here....

Daily chart: More conventional indicators looks a bit tired today - breaking the accelerated trend line (who knows?) & histogram divergence...

ds

Holy grail indicators... If one cares to believe the ICHI spin then AJM may well be retracing to the chikou or kijun support - just taking a breather on the stairway higher?...

grail

not still holding - need to see a change in motive force before taking another position.


Happy trading DYOR


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gdd3
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016 - 04:21 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Archer ... also good to see you are "alive and kicking" ...

You said ..."I wonder if the lithium bubble is starting to POP ????" ... I'm thinking the same thing. WHY, because I note that most more significant lithium stocks have, or just about to, taken out their lows of either the 19th or 20th April ... the two strong volume up days leading into their highs for most of them.(note: for AJM it was the 15th/18th) ... in today's action which is on highish volume as well.

Dolphin

P.S. AJM ... Benson, even if Archer and I are wrong must agree with Tryhay as well ... i.e. at least S/T pressure is evident and at best support may be found in the 20.5 - 19.5c area BUT momentum seems to be building for at best further consolidation but more likely further weakness(confirmed if L/T MACD goes into a sell)or indeed the Uptrend may have peaked.




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benson
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016 - 04:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin / Tryhay

I've already stopped out. Have to agree ... more downward PA ahead looking at 30min, 1hr, and daily timeframes.


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archer
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Wednesday, April 27, 2016 - 10:26 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Dolphin Tryhay
Thanks for your analysis dolphin
As you suggest--volatility is rising in the lithium stocks
and that is usually the first signs of a top
Still a bit early to say definitively but just a sign to be on the lookout
They have been great trading stocks but I DONT like holding them once the bell has been rung
Cobalt stocks (another ingredient for batteries)have also been moving well
What I want to know is "Where will the next bubble turn up?"


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benson
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Wednesday, April 27, 2016 - 05:48 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I thought I read somewhere that increasing volume is bullish


AJM will need a defib if this keeps up. Glad to be on the sidelines ...





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archer
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Yes IF its going up it is bullish
IF its going down ------run for the hills ;)


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gdd3
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Wednesday, April 27, 2016 - 09:57 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Benson ... Archer is generally right re: high vols BUT the next two day's could provide a clearer picture if today's low might be near a swing point low. I say a swing point low because what I alluded too in my previous chart; i.e. a breakdown of both the slow(L/T) MACD and the TMF trendline(and below the "0% level"), would not be good going forward from here. A breakdown of these two very likely means any rally from near here will be short-lived and sold into.


In addition, AJM "Bears" made mince_meat of that 20.5c - 19.5c potential chart support and now the 34sma and if that (yellow) Broadening Patern(triangle) is correct its MM is not untill 11c. Note: that does not mean I think that's where this is heading(as I said I want to see what evolves over the next two TD's)but it certain could very well do so!




The question of "high" volumes is interesting, particularly when you study the intraday breakdown, as shown below. Note where most of the vol. came in at ... 20c and below and more particularly 20c and 17.5c. Action at 20c could have been potential DT buyers(at support) and at 17.5c(later in the day) those buyers existing out. OR, buying at 17.5c being new buyers after pressure Bears sold near 20c to activate stops.(Short_squeeze).

All supposition!



Cheers
Dolphin


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tryhay
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Wednesday, April 27, 2016 - 10:36 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

The notion that ""I wonder if the lithium bubble is starting to POP ????"" is of interest to many - given the population of Li stocks and by necessity their varying stage/s of development (exploration / B.F.S. / close to mining etc) then there must be some 'toy' companies that still have a run in them, however the existing ones may still have some herbs in them IMO (eg PLS is still heading higher from a 5c base!). I guess the paradigm will change Archer but I believe there is more to milk from this one yet! The other thing in life is that there are no absolutes - re Li stocks or other matters IMO

What kind of pull back is likely with AJM before it is likely to run higher is the more important question IMO. It has already cracked the first line of defense (Kijun), the Chikou is also supposed to provide support & if all else fails then the top of the cloud should provide support as well. Of course AJM needs a breather after such a stellar run - it should be a matter of reacting to the chart to see where might be appropriate to buy in again for another run. If PLS is any guide then the 61% Fib is likely to provide support - but that is not a scientific approach (but it still might work). & BGS is still marching higher...

Daily chart: Today's volume was > 32 M and the highest up volume on this pop was >54 M. watching and waiting....

ad

Not currently holding

(Message edited by tryhay on April 27, 2016)

(Message edited by tryhay on April 27, 2016)


Happy trading DYOR


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archer
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Thursday, April 28, 2016 - 09:17 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Id expect a bounce today as it closed yesterday right on the 38.2 retrace of its entire move up from below 1c
Maybe a target of 21.3c


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archer
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Thursday, April 28, 2016 - 09:22 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Still watching BGS for another trade Tryhay but its being stopped at the 30c level-38.2 retrace of the downmove
So the plan is to buy a break of 30 and add when it clears 32.5 with the next target looking for 49c


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tryhay
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Thursday, April 28, 2016 - 12:20 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Volume >15 M this-morning: may end up being capitulation.

Chart less clear as yet - if it forms a doji that would get me somewhat interested.

ad


Happy trading DYOR


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benson
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Thursday, April 28, 2016 - 01:07 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin

The Trade Analysis window you posted, is that on your broker's platform or a standalone program ?

Looks like a great tool for intra-day trading


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gdd3
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Thursday, April 28, 2016 - 05:00 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BennySon ... Its available on the (live)WebIress platform and I get it via my broker. Many brokers use, and therefore offer, it(WebIress) to their clients ... free dependant on the number of trades one pushes thru them/month(10) or at a charge of about $80/month scaled down from 0 trades to 10.

I'm sure you can get similar info in some EOD platforms as well though.

As a treat ... here's today's action(nearing close). You'll note we've had a narrow range(17.5c - 20c); same range as yesterday's majority activity zone I mentioned above and the VWAP for both day's is ~ 19c. I'd think another day like that(narrow trading range) tomorrow but with a slightly higher range(L/H) would be good S/T. I have noted the "known" MD has steadily increased today as well and we now have a +ve 2:1 ratio but this will change at the EOD as the algae/ChiX orders disappear.

BUT, at this stage, I still see any rally should be sold into...unless we get a close above 25.5c.



Cheers
Dolphin

(Message edited by gdd3 on April 28, 2016)


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benson
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Thursday, April 28, 2016 - 05:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks D, I use westpac ... have just signed up for it.


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tryhay
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Wednesday, May 04, 2016 - 10:16 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What is happening with AJM?

Daily chart suggests support may have been found at the Chikou level: PA looks to be flagging out around here (not certain if it is a bear or bullish type flag yet), rather than buy and hope monitor progress IMO

ad

4 Hr Chart: suggests support may have been found at the Cloud / rising trendline level: if PA holds support then must be worth another pop (perhaps over 30 Cents)?


a4


Happy trading DYOR


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muzza
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This is a very interesting thread guys - thanks for the great analysis.

I know nothing about the Ichimoku system, but recall that when it was developed in the 1930's in Japan, their trading was 6 days as against the 5 we have. Hence there is some suggestion that the 9/26/52 periods in the system would need to be modified to 7/22/44 to better represent the picture... not sure, so this is just FYI.

Regarding where AJM might be heading, the way I look at things is simple Support/Resistance/Buying_Pressure etc.

Daily Chart:

AJM

On my chart I see AJM is retracing to 38.2% Fib level off the Dec 2015 lows, and has respected that level with an up candle.

But look at volume.

After the dominant down candle on 27/4, the Volume has been below the 9dy SMA of volume.

This could mean either that there are strong hands who are holding in anticipation of a new rally, or (I have not checked), buyer depth is light.

Either way, its finely balanced between bears and bulls in my view. (Elders Bear Power / Bull Power could be useful to look at).

I muck about a bit with Li plays at the moment, and don't hold this one ... if it retraces to the 50% level and then reacts with some volume it would represent value to me and I would probably take a full position.

For other reasons I am watching DKO and LIT more closely.

Just my views / ravings ...

Once again, thanks for great work on this thread ... I am going to have to go and study this Ichimoku approach!

regards


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tryhay
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Sunday, May 22, 2016 - 03:27 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi muzza

Ichi chart might be a fad for some, but they have a powerful way of an assessing strength of equity in one glance.You will keep doing what you do because it works - I looked for another filter to get me out of the stop out trip (and found best to do breakouts - but consider others as well).

Couple of chart/s below - including many of the Li ASX stocks for anyone interested. Taken from another site, one month old.

Daily chart: Looks to be respecting middle support, looks to be in "value area", so pull back may well be over?

Daily

4 Hr chart: Ditto

4 Hr

LI Charts:


Li


Happy trading DYOR


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benson
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Monday, May 23, 2016 - 01:53 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Tryhay,


Can I ask what are some other good sites/forums for ASX discussion. I also peruse Aussie Stock Forums.


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tryhay
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Monday, May 23, 2016 - 11:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Benson,

When the issue of alternative good sites/forums has been raised previously on this forum it has created problems for this site: colin et al.

I'm sure if you web search for stock forums you will find alternatives that have varying value: whether you are searching for stock tips or education/information.

You will probably find your online share trading platform provides a forum for participants to use (and they will provide some education as well).

In my experience the longer you trade shares the less time you spend listening to sprukers and the more time you will spend in independent study / analysis.

This site as well as the ASX website provide much of the information you need to be successful in trading / investing. The archives here are full of useful examples if you can stomach the searching....

asx

Happy hunting

(Message edited by tryhay on May 23, 2016)


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Saturday, June 11, 2016 - 07:26 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AJM"s PA looks to be breaking out around here

Daily







Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Monday, January 16, 2017 - 07:51 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks like AJM has reset & is ready for the next leg up (for real this time)...

Weekly chart:

weekly

Daily chart:

daily


Happy trading DYOR

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