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AGR_AGUIA RESOURCES LIMITED

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » AGR_AGUIA RESOURCES LIMITED

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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

Post Number: 1498
Registered: 09-2005

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Saturday, May 07, 2016 - 09:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Aguia Resources Ltd engages in the exploration and development of resource projects, predominately phosphate and potash in Brazil, and investment in the resources sector.

This trade is another of those "Elder's Triple Screen Trading Strategy" & the A Tradable "3-Push" Set-up in GBP/CHF framework/s.

This AGR example is also not a text book example of these framework/s (being a real world example), but I believe that applying the principles of these frameworks described above (and using appropriate risk management techniques) a trade may well be setting up for another swing higher; as outlined below:

The major (weekly) trend is down (trend duration approx four (4) years), and more recently AGR has completed shorter term counter-trend swing higher and then an even shorter term swing lower as detailed on shorter term time frames below.

aw

The most recent intermediate (daily) trend has also been down (duration approx. six (6) months): retracing approx. 61% of last year's counter-trend rally. Accumulation is evident during this short term swing lower and recently volatility is evident in PA (suggesting the completion of this last swing lower and indicating that one watch for another swing higher IMO). Rather than mess up this chart I suggest that you favourably consider viewing the AGR March announcement to view the pipeline of projects & relevant company activity.

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The short (4 Hr) trend has also been down (duration approx. six (6) months ) - in the last month or two PA has been sliding sideways around the 61% retracement level with increased volatility above the Ichi cloud. I did not bother putting the trading rationale on this chart - maybe you are getting the trip.

4 Hr

Bought in last week...


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

Post Number: 1516
Registered: 09-2005

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Sunday, May 22, 2016 - 02:14 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Still holding. Lots happening in the last quarterly report - cat & mouse PA & volume games but may well be ready to move one day soon.








Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

Post Number: 1568
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Tuesday, June 07, 2016 - 11:56 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks like AGR is commencing its next swing higher IMO.

Daily chart with a zoomed in weekly detail. Looks like a break out on increased volume together with nice fundamental news....

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Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

Post Number: 1590
Registered: 09-2005

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Wednesday, July 13, 2016 - 11:13 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks like (Ground hog day ): AGR has commencing its next swing higher IMO (last swing ran out of puff @ 200 D_MA but I doubt this one will!). D.J. Carmichael Pty Limited provided a Management Update last month with Recommendation: Speculative Buy, & Valuation: $0.68 (FWIW). http://aguiaresources.com.au/site/wp-content/uploads/DJ-Carmichael-AGR-Spec-Buy-0.68-9-June-2016.pdf

Also a stream of other stuff including Ann: Aguia's Optimised PEA Unlocks Signifcant New Value-AGR.AX - etc. Currently in trading halt...

Daily chart with a zoomed in weekly detail. Looks like a break out on increased volume together with nice conduit of fundamental news....

Daily

Topped up earlier last week


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

Post Number: 1601
Registered: 09-2005

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Monday, July 18, 2016 - 04:55 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well AGR committed the ultimate faux pas which necessitated the Ann: Clarification and withdrawal of announcements-AGR.AX"!

Several other positive announcements have fallen on top up ears (I'm already at full capacity).


Daily chart shows retrace on higher than average volume...

daily

Share story still looks fine, but community trust is at AT low


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

Post Number: 1728
Registered: 09-2005

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Friday, February 24, 2017 - 07:03 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AGR has been sliding sideways however the technicals & fundamentals look to be in alignment & hoover seems to be slowly picking this up!

Weekly chart for anyone interested. Price action up 20% on nearly 4x average volume. Looks like top up time IMO..

weekly


Happy trading DYOR


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muzza
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Username: muzza

Post Number: 365
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Friday, February 24, 2017 - 10:17 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Quite bullish on the daily chart as well -- a bit rushed at the moment to do a chart & full analysis.
Some summary info re Elder Triple Screen (which I use in a modified method).

1. Price action has been making lower lows from 20/10/2016 to 13/2/2017

2. BearPower over the same period was divergent to PA - higher lows .. bullish. However volume was boring ... so a "consensus" was that the weak hands needed to be shaken out before this would run. Seems to be happening now.

3. Breakout between 20/2 and 23/2 was with good volume thus driving Elders ForceIndex strongly to the positive.

4. New Uptrend emerging -- if we see BearPower tick down (retracement) and then tick up again --- Elder in his book suggests that this is one of the strongest indicators of strength (in an uptrend) as the Bears are about to be overwhelmed by the bulls.

Thanks for signalling this one TryHay -- I have put a conditional order in ... lets see.

Good wishes to all that hold

regards
Muzza


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muzza
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Username: muzza

Post Number: 371
Registered: 06-2003

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Wednesday, March 01, 2017 - 07:09 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Tryhay

My conditional order was not filled so I don't hold.
But based on what I see over the next few trading sessions I may buy at the market ... I will advise if I enter.

The chart looks promising, with Bears & Bulls eyeing each other off yesterday.

The balance of power favours the Bulls inmo, but that is what I want to confirm over the coming periods.

You know the approach I take from our other discussions, so I wont labour any points here.

Daily Chart (close as of 28/2)

1_AGR_Daily

From my experience when you see a large green candle straddling the 12 & 26 EMAs, followed shortly by an EMA cross (12>26) with volume pop (on 23/2) that is a very bullish sign - which needs confirmation.

Hope this helps, finely balanced at the moment, lets see

regards
Muzza


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muzza
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Post Number: 372
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Wednesday, March 01, 2017 - 06:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ok Guys - a down day today

Daily Chart 1/3/2107

2_AGR_Daily

However note that volume was below the 9dy SMA of Volume.

Given the low was below the 12dy EMA, BearPower has ticked down.

BUY Signals are generated in UPTRENDS when BearPower turns NEGATIVE and then ticks up. The up-tick means Bears are losing their grip and you can buy value (economically) - and relatively safely!

Need to see that up-tick and more volume.

What will tomorrow bring?

Regards
Muzza


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tryhay
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Post Number: 1735
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Thursday, March 02, 2017 - 07:16 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Muzza,

If there is value in "Stan's" approach then the price action should respond appropriately to the signs that are evident.

Maybe a follow up to "Aguia discovers New Mineralised Zone at Tres Estradas" or some other announcement/s are required to ensure price performance. Short term PA is commonly noise and longer term HH & HL stuff is easier to manage (similar to some others on this site) Happy to hold AGR at the moment anyway.

Am off on "fishing trip" with tenuous internet reception (yes there are still places where that luxury is available).

P.S. I like the tweeks that individuals use to improve performance (your MA crossovers etc.) When training full time The more experienced guys would describe similar actions that improved their performance but they were unwilling to share with the rest (me to know & you to find out). Appreciate your sharing - may not suit all but pleased that that approach is of value to you!

(Message edited by tryhay on March 02, 2017)


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

Post Number: 1739
Registered: 09-2005

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Thursday, March 09, 2017 - 01:57 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AGR is still not performing as expected, however the news today ( Consolidation/Split - AGR 5:1) seems to have spooked the market. I hope you are managing you trade Muzza - I actually topped up today even though the weekly signals are not presently all favourable.

This Security consolidation looks like a logical/mature move by AGR management IMO, particularly with the impending listing on the TSX: "From the recent AGM Notice..."The company is aiming to move its exploration assets in Brazil towards the initial stages of production, upon which the company will be reporting as a "mineral producer" rather than a "mineral explorer". ...... "The consolidation will result in a more appropriate capital structure and a share price that is more appealing to a wider range of investors" .

Daily chart shows the recent price action has been all over the shop, however the 78% fib of the most recent swing high looks to have provided support & with the fundamental news currently happening some positive company announcements are likely to result in price increase/company re-rate IMO.

daily


Happy trading DYOR


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muzza
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Username: muzza

Post Number: 373
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Thursday, March 09, 2017 - 02:58 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Tryhay

As you know my initial conditional order was not filled.
I have been watching this one closely, but did not take the trade entry "at market", given the retracement underway.

I still might do this as a "rising buy" entry if I see that happen on decent volume.

Good fortune to you - I will definitely let you know in real time if I enter.

regards
Muzza


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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

Post Number: 1791
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Saturday, January 13, 2018 - 03:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AGR is back on the watchlist: has formed a sloppy falling wedge (after the 4 yr downtrend [commencing 2011] & the break higher [commencing Jan 2015]).

The moving averages are stacked, some indicators are looking positive, so I'm tempted to top up before the formal trigger...

Weekly chart: Looking adequate IMO

aw







Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

Post Number: 1839
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Monday, April 23, 2018 - 08:05 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks a lot like $AGR top up time IMO (one hates to average down but but it is a reality on occasion).

AGR's primary focus is a derisked phosphate development company ( with high quality calcite by-product) advancing towards production, but also new copper discovery/s identifies extensive zone (9km x 3km) of mineralization proximal to past production in Camaqua Copper Belt!

At the time AGR listed on TSX it traded @60 Cents (on ASX) - my guess is a bit closer to production that number will pale into the distance...

Daily chart: Volume is quite low - under the radar still; is that a "W" bottom forming ATM?

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Happy trading DYOR

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