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BDR - could this be a Stan Candidate in the near future

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » BDR - could this be a Stan Candidate in the near future

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muzza
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Username: muzza

Post Number: 362
Registered: 06-2003

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Monday, February 06, 2017 - 09:35 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With some time on my hands today I began revisiting my Stan Weinstein book to see if I could glean new insights given its been some several years since I read it.

Analysis:

Note that the last candles on the charts are this week hence incomplete candles at the time of writing (Monday 6th Feb PM).

(Weekly) XJO is in a primary uptrend and has recently corrected to its 12w EMA it is currently respecting this level.

One of the sectors that has outperformed the XJO in recent times is the XGD (Gold sub index) its relative performance to the XJO is positive and it has crossed the 12wk EMA of Relative Performance.

Weekly Chart:

XGD

The top panel Green is the Relative Performance indicator, and red is the MA Signal Line.

Additionally the XGD has poked its head above a series of Lower Highs (the blue trend line).

The 26wk EMA of the XGD has been rising for the past 5 weeks, the green EMA on the chart This suggests that there is some power in the sector.

MACD has crossed its signal line and is about to go positive.

In this sector there are several candidates

The once that has caught my eye is Beadell Resource (BDR emerging gold producer) that seems to be in an early stage of breakout when looking at the daily charts

Please note that given Weinstein likes to see long term MAs rising on weekly charts before calling a stage 2, this is not yet "formally" a stage 2.

I am mucking about trying to find an early breakout candidate

Daily chart:

BDR

Volume has been building quietly, and has been above the 9 day MA of Volume for the previous 4 days.

Need to see volume build more rapidly and price EMAs respected etc to confirm entry.

I do not hold -- do your own research etc.

Looking for feedback from experienced short term traders.

Best Regards


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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 4634
Registered: 03-2003

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Tuesday, February 07, 2017 - 08:57 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Muzza, gold mines are very much influenced by the price of gold. BDR has broken out from the established stage 1 , however with a softening gold price returned to base. Now with the gold price going up again is set to give the resistance level a workout now. As your daily chart shows, it has broken out from a recent down trend. With price of gold going up again, another breakout is very much in line.
I don't hold. With Trump on board as President of the US, the geopolitical and the social economic situation will be volatile, gold will be in for a very strong run IMO. Please do your own research, I don't hold.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 4635
Registered: 03-2003

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Tuesday, February 07, 2017 - 09:05 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



RSI above neutral plus dominant candle established on the day of the breakout indicates strength, currently chart is reasonably bullish.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

Post Number: 1709
Registered: 09-2005

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Tuesday, February 07, 2017 - 11:05 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Muzza / Peter,

BDR looks to be in Stage 2, but having just broken out from consolidation/ retrace (looks like breakaway gap on weekly chart) it may be expected to keep heading north.

Gold & USD have not been trending recently, and so many materials shares have been consolidating as well. Peter suggests above that maybe gold will trend now allowing pattern/s to play out...

Weekly BDR chart with various detail: when volume increases it will be time to top up IMO

weekly

Weekly Gold chart H&S all over the place.....

W G

Daily Gold chart Looks to have made that Msparks higher low and may well be off to the races (More importantly check that MACD curl)...

D G







Happy trading DYOR


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muzza
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Username: muzza

Post Number: 363
Registered: 06-2003

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Tuesday, February 07, 2017 - 12:12 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for your observations Peter and Tryhay.

Re-reading Stans book certainly helps.
For example, notwithstanding Stage Analysis, its easy to forget that Stan also does sensible things like checking for recent significant resistance levels etc., in order to select the strongest candidate.

Lets see how this one pans out along with the price of gold in the coming days.

regards

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