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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

The Hindenburg Omen

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colin_twiggs
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Monday, October 10, 2005 - 04:39 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Attempts to predict major market reversals from the number of new 52-week highs and lows on a particular day: http://safehaven.com/article-3880.htm

With thanks to Ken.


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sumamura
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can u customise the five filters for australian or any other market ?







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elisabeth
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This chart only relates to one aspect of the H omen, and it is based on weekly data, not daily. I've been tracking # new highs/lows as a percentage of all stocks in the All Ords since March. (I've jigged the data so that more lows pull the bars down lower.)

Each week I update the data and wonder what it might be telling me...... I'm sure Ive got confirmation bias for my bullish wish when I note that the new lows have not increased (10%-10%-11%) as much as the new highs have fallen (15%-11%-9%) in the last 3 weeks.

(Does TA apply...... the double top in Sept)

Obviously I need a lot more history but it only takes 10 seconds to update and time will tell if it has any value.

Elisabeth

pic


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ken
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Friday, October 28, 2005 - 08:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Another "Hindenburg Omen" -related link about the progress of the market new highs and lows into crashes, the new lows numbers you see at the bottom, and when it is safe to go back in.

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=3989

Well worth a read. See the link at the top of this page for the Hindenburg omen itself. A seemingly reliable predictor of crashes.


Trade with the trend, not against it.

The trend is the direction of the 22ema line (Elder)

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spider
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Saturday, October 29, 2005 - 01:43 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Excellent read ken.
It would be cool if we could chart this for the AUS market.

spider.



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spider
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Saturday, October 29, 2005 - 01:58 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Her's a dumb question.
I think that stocknessmonster gives the number of rises and falls for a day. Does anyone know where I could get the number of new highs and new lows (52 week), per day, for the AUS market.
It would be even cooler if I could get historical data for this as well?

Back in the day, when I used the Age newspaper for info, I think that they had a column for each share that showed it's 52 week high and low, they must have gotten that info from somewhere.


spider.



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ken
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Saturday, October 29, 2005 - 08:56 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Spider,

I found this site tonight which claims it is the only one with 52 week highs and lows.

http://clients.weblink.com.au/clients/equitiesinfo/

Doesn't appear to have a history but I haven't looked far.

Ken


Trade with the trend, not against it.

The trend is the direction of the 22ema line (Elder)

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heyyou
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Saturday, October 29, 2005 - 09:06 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Spider,

How cool is this.

52 Week Lows and Highs for week ending 28/10/05Highs lows


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spider
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Saturday, October 29, 2005 - 10:51 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



heyyou....................very cool.
ken....................excellent.


But I'm greedy, I want more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wants charts going back to the beginning of time!!!!!!!!!

I want them delivered to my door by scantily clad maidens (don't tell mrs spider I said that.



Go forth my minions, and find me MORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Seriously, thanks for the efforts guys, there will be a little something extra in your pay packet this week.

spider.



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heyyou
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Sunday, October 30, 2005 - 08:24 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Spider

There are some (unmentionable) charting packages around that you can do absolutely anything with, just ask Snifter.

All it takes is a little incentive, motivation, ability and determination.


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spider
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The charting package isn't the issue (you can run all this from a spreadsheet).
It's the access to to the raw data that is the problem.



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heyyou
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Fair enough, data is not really a problem in my opinion, it's available everywhere, whether you get it for free (yahoo) or pay $100's a month (paritech), streaming, live, delayed or futured, it's the ability to do with it what you want.

The reason I joined this thread was I have already been researching 52 week high and lows and had the relevant info at my finger tips.

You can get or be anything in this world if you want it enough.
(If it is to be, it's up to me.)

Arrivederci!


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spider
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Monday, October 31, 2005 - 11:01 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OK heyyou,
am I missing something here?
My brain doesn't work that well in these early morning hours, but I could have sworn that there was something between the lines of your recent posts, so I went back and read them again, and sure enough, I got the same feeling.

Is there something that you would like to say?
Something you need to get off your chest?
Or, am I just imagining it?

The whole 52 week high low thing is something that I have been into since the mid nineties, and I believe that it is an excellent early warning tool, but I have not been able to convince a lot of people along the way.

spider.



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elisabeth
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Nice bullish week on the Ords with 0.6% more new 52 week Highs than last week, but ..... 2.1% more new Lows, ie there were three and a half times more new Lows than new Highs.

Elisabeth

HL


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spider
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Hi elisabeth,
excellent chart.
Is there any chance of you posting that chart on a weekly basis?

spider.



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elisabeth
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Spider, no problem (as long as the new "Shares" keeps putting the data on their new site..)

Elisabeth


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elisabeth
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h&l


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elisabeth
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This is different to Perler's result for the week... the tables I use are from weekly data, perhaps Perler's charts use daily price?

Ords chart looks bullish to me - did make a higher H during the week but closed 18 points lower ending in a small bodied candle which has a longer tail than shadow, plus it's sitting at the top of the prev week's strong candle. (Weekly chart looks very similar to the May turnaround.)

HL


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ingot54
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Hello Elisabeth

Any chance of an update?

I am enjoying your charts.


Keep Smiling

Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly

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elisabeth
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Happy to post - not sure what, if anything, it tells us - the bears seem to be strengthening. Should this be read as any other chart - lower highs, lower lows. I need a few more years of data I think....

Chart as of Dec 16.

Elisabeth

handl


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elisabeth
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I wish all on the forum a happy and peaceful Christmas, and good trading in 2006.

Thanks to Colin and Robin for all they do to make this forum possible, and thanks to those contributors who give so much of their time - there have been some great discussions once again this year!

Regards,
Elisabeth


h&l


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elisabeth
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Christmas volumes?? The MA has swung to the upside.

(Perler, would you happen to have an update of your XAO AD line? If you do, please can you post the link as I can't access the thread)

h&l


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elisabeth
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h&l


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ingot54
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Thank you for your continuing this thread, Elisabeth.


Keep Smiling

Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly

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elisabeth
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h&l


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ingot54
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That's the strongest move for some time.

15.2 above and 10.1 below approx.

That's about 2:1 increase:decrease.

Thanks Elisabeth.


Keep Smiling

Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly

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elisabeth
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Ingot, my raw data below - thank you for your posts - as long as someone is interested I am more than happy to update the thread.

This is a study which may or may not lead to some insight but I have noted the following:

- In May the lows started lessening, highs started gaining - this was the start of a new run……

- End Sep, double Top (almost) and we had a drop

- Last week, new high

I just keep updating the chart - who knows where it might lead. Is it confirmation or can it be leading. My chart does not have enough data yet.

Elisabeth

data


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vermante
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Elizebeth

If you refer to Elder- Trading for a living - he has a chapter on the use of the New High - New Low Index

What is your data source for New Highs - New Lows ?

Cheers

Vermante


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elisabeth
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Vermante, thank you - I have Come Into My Trading Room and Elder just makes a reference to the New High-New Low Index use to gauge the the current mood of the market - overall bearish or overall bullish. A trip to the library is needed to read up more.

Data comes from SmartInvestor (Shares) - subscribers have access to tables. The weekly Securities table has 52 week highs and lows. I dump this table into a s/s and use countif and counta to pick out the new highs and lows and work out the percentages. The table includes options - 2400 securities in total in the current table. I find data from this and the sector table useful in a few different ways and subscribe more for the access to the tables than the mag.

Elisabeth


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elisabeth
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h&l


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ingot54
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Thanks Elisabeth - all was going well until Friday ...

Looks very unstable - again!

Below I copy/paste some of Richard Russell's newsletter:

The Dow plunged below its 50-day MA today (50-day MA stands at 10824). The Dow closed today below its December low of 10717.50. This is ominous.

There were 987 advances and 2302 declines. Down volume was a large 84.1% of up + down volume.

The "obvious" take on today's stock market collapse is that it's the mess in Iran. The not-so-obvious take is that it's something else such as a possible major decline in housing or (you fill in the answer).

At any rate, mutual fund's cash is extremely low which is not good. And I don't get the feeling that investors or the markets are positioned for trouble. Of course, that's just when trouble usually hits.

To be honest, with the Iranian "problem" in play, many investors and speculators don't want to sit with stocks over the weekend. Yeah, that makes sense, maybe that's what happened today.


And a copied letter to Mr Russell ...

Dear Mr. Russell,

A Happy Chinese New Year. My wife and I have just returned from our annual year-end South Eastern Asian tour. We were very happy to see most of the Tsunami stricken Thailand resorts are completely restored and very busy, but the most shocking things we learned in Hong Kong and Taiwan was that our friends who got the prized US passport 15 - 20 years ago are giving up their US citizenship and becoming Australian or Canadian citizens.

These rich Chinese people seem to have lost a faith in our country's future. With their advice, we opened a bank account in Hong Kong. We let you guess in what denomination. We always enjoy your commentary.

Best wishes for the year of Dog.



Keep Smiling

Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly

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elisabeth
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h&l


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elisabeth
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h&l


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elisabeth
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h&l


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ingot54
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Excellent, Elisabeth.

Continues to shed light ...


Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.

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elisabeth
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h&l


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elisabeth
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Correction..... the Hs were lower, the Ls stayed the same vs prior week, ie

H = 12.0% ~ (0.9) vs last week
L = 12.9% ~ 0.0 vs last week

Though I'm sure anyone who is following this chart would have noticed.

My apology! I've been away = limited attention and limited internet / computer time.

Elisabeth


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elisabeth
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h&l


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ingot54
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Is sentiment improving? The trend balance is looking better.

Because there are still quite large numbers of stocks going up AND going down, that would be a measure of volatility, I would think. Yes?

Compare the current advances/declines with the second week in September 2005, or even late July 2005 is a better comparison, and it is plain that there is a lot more instability, which to me, means indecision.

Is a market, where 150 stock rise, and 150 stocks fall, more indicative of trend stability than if 500 stocks rise, and 500 stocks fall?

Or is the latter an indication of increasing volatility?


Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.

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elisabeth
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I find this chart hard to analyse - there just isn't enough history. Also, I don't think of it in terms of advances/declines, it is simply a percentage of 52 wk current Hs and Ls in the overall market.

Another thing I should point out, is that the only info I have is the 52 wk H/L and the current wk H/L - there would be some securities which are double/triple etc topping or bottoming - I just have to assume that this evens itself out - I have no alternative beyond checking each security individually which time just does not allow - there are 305 Hs and 271 Ls amongst 2115 stocks & options this week.

My view:

- Stocks fall more easily/quickly than they rise so it's much harder for an equity to make a new H than a new L. So should there be more weighting to the Hs?

- Agree that it shows volatility and indecision in the Hs, but the Ls have been at almost the same level for 4 weeks. I know it's stretching it, but I can see similarity to the Aug/Sep period prior to the Oct drop?

- How many of those Hs are in a potential blow-off trend ~ could offer a contrarian view that a turn is coming?

Ideally, it would offer more insight to eyeball the securities involved and id blow-offs and double tops, etc, which, again, is beyond the limits of time available for me to spend on shares. Happy to share my s/s.


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ingot54
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Agree Elisabeth. It is not possible to use such a chart as a predictor at all, but purely as a state-of-current-sentiment snapshot.

As you said, there is no way to know if some stocks are making new highs and vice versa. But if the balance changes, that might indicate a change of sentiment, and if the range (up/down) expands/shrinks, that could indicate a change in volatility.

I guess charts mean different things to everyone, and the value lies in interpretation.


Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.

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elisabeth
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h&l

Be rolling over a year soon and it will be interesting to watch for similarity in those seasonal soft periods, starting with a decline towards a May low?

Elisabeth


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ingot54
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Fair call, Elisabeth.

Will history repeat?


Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.

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spider
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I always read this thread, so I thought that I should add something to it, so here goes.

New 52 week lows.
New 52 Week Lows
Symbol Company New Low Old Low Last Price*
AIA AUCK AIRPT FPO NZ 1.625 1.630 1.640
AJL AJ LUCAS FPO 0.685 0.710 0.705
APG AUSTPAC R FPO 0.022 0.023 0.023
AVP ACURON LTD FPO 0.030 0.036 0.030
CGX CENTR ASIA FPO 0.405 0.410 0.405
ETWPB EVANS&TATE 7.75%PREF 0.125 0.130 0.125
FLX FELIX RES FPO 1.750 1.800 1.800
GOP GIPP OPL FPO 0.086 0.088 0.090
HAO HAOMA FPO 0.034 0.038 0.034
HZG HORIZON FPO 0.070 0.090 0.080
INP INNAMINCKA FPO 0.325 0.330 0.325
IPA INDIGO PAC FPO 0.690 0.705 0.710
MWG MACQWINTON ORD UNIT 0.955 0.960 0.955
NLX NYLEX FPO 0.105 0.110 0.110
PCL PANCONT FPO 0.060 0.061 0.061
PSX PSIRON LTD FPO 0.150 0.155 0.150
RCI ROCKLANDS FPO 0.125 0.130 0.135
SRI SIPA RES. FPO 0.055 0.056 0.057
STI STIRLING. FPO 0.120 0.125 0.120
STOPB SANTOS PRF FUELS 100.250 100.600 100.420
TAW TAWANA FPO 0.425 0.450 0.480
TKL TRAKA RES FPO 0.120 0.125 0.120
VHL VIRAX FPO 0.105 0.110 0.115
WAT WATERCO FPO 3.050 3.060 3.050
WFLPA WILLMOTT PREF 101.000 102.990 101.000


New 52 Week Highs
Symbol Company New High Old High Last Price*
AMP AMP FPO 8.750 8.710 8.670
ANZ ANZ BANK FPO 26.140 26.100 25.950
APA AU PIPELIN UNITS 4.570 4.510 4.450
BBG BILLABONG FPO 16.300 16.150 16.000
BIX BIOMETRICS FPO 0.094 0.080 0.091
BPK BREMERPARK FPO 0.155 0.135 0.155
CAL CITIC AUST FPO 0.615 0.590 0.550
COA COATES FPO 6.280 6.150 6.150
COH COCHLEAR FPO 55.010 51.250 53.450
CPR CLIVEPTERS FPO 1.200 1.170 1.200
CTN CONTANGO FPO 1.305 1.280 1.300
CWP CEDARWOODS FPO 3.800 3.700 3.660
DJS D JONES 95 FPO 3.040 2.950 3.020
DJSPA D JONES 95 8.1% PREF 204.000 200.000 204.000
DKN DKN FIN FPO 0.960 0.950 0.960
DRK DRAKE RES FPO 0.210 0.195 0.200
DVN DEVINE FPO 0.765 0.760 0.760
ECM EAST COAST FPO 0.155 0.150 0.140
ENG ENGIN FPO 0.320 0.290 0.290
EPG EUROP GAS FPO 0.740 0.730 0.670
FSA FSA GROUP FPO 0.190 0.160 0.190
GAA GENEPHARM FPO 1.510 1.460 1.480
GRV GREENVALE FPO 0.650 0.600 0.650
HRS HUDSON RES FPO 0.105 0.080 0.105
HVN HARVEY FPO 3.630 3.520 3.560
IFL IOOF FPO 7.950 7.940 7.890
ITC IMPRESS FPO 0.105 0.097 0.100
JST JUST GROUP FPO 3.340 3.320 3.290
MLB MELB IT FPO 1.640 1.630 1.605
MLE MACQ LEISR STAPLED 2.540 2.530 2.520
MSB MESOBLAST FPO 1.890 1.875 1.810
NOP NEW OPP. FPO 0.074 0.069 0.074
NPH NEW PRIV FPO 1.750 1.400 1.750
NWS NEWSCORP B VOTING 23.920 23.880 23.690
OKN OAKTON FPO 3.140 3.110 3.120
PEN PENINSULA FPO 0.037 0.035 0.033
PGS PLANETGAS FPO 0.400 0.390 0.380
PMA PRECIOUS FPO 2.300 2.270 2.300
PMN PROMINA FPO 5.620 5.590 5.600
PUR PURUS FPO 0.250 0.245 0.230
PYC PHYLOGICA FPO 0.485 0.395 0.460
QBE QBE INSUR. FPO 21.960 21.740 21.600
RRS RANGE RES FPO 0.050 0.048 0.047
SAE SALINAS FPO 0.480 0.435 0.435
SGN STW COMM FPO 3.380 3.270 3.350
SGT SINGTEL CDI 2.270 2.250 2.260
SKE SKILLED GL FPO 5.390 5.150 5.300
SLX SILEX FPO 3.700 3.620 3.640
TBG TUT BRYANT FPO 1.480 1.450 1.450
TCQ TRIN CONS STAPLED 1.280 1.260 1.270
TRS REJECTSHOP FPO 5.050 5.000 5.050
TSH TSVHOLDING FPO 0.550 0.540 0.530
TSO TISHMAN SP UNIT 2.330 2.300 2.310
WHF WHITEFIELD FPO 3.870 3.850 3.870



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elisabeth
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h&l


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ingot54
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Colin, I guess Ken's idea has borne some fruit here, but I am wondering if the Hindenberg Omen has really lived up to its historic predictive form.

The idea would have faded, had not Elisabeth taken up the challenge and posted the weekly charts - thanks.

Here is your original link from the beginning of this thread, with thanks to Ken.

I precis / paraphrase the Omen ...

So what is a Hindenburg Omen?

It is the interpretation of factors, such that the probability of a stock market crash occurring, or a severe decline, can be predictive. This Omen has appeared before all of the panic events of the past 21 years. All of them.

When both new highs and new lows are large, it indicates the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising prices.

Many new highs and very few lows is obviously bullish.

But a great many new lows accompanied by few or no new highs ... can lead to important market bottoms.

How has this signal performed over the past 21 years, since 1985?


Filter #1: The daily number of NYSE New 52 Week Highs and the Daily number of New 52 Week Lows must both be so high as to have the lesser of the two be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.

Filter #2: That the NYSE 10 Week Moving Average is also Rising.

Filter #3: That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.

Filter #4: That New 52 Week NYSE Highs cannot be more than twice New 52 Week Lows, however it is okay for New 52 Week Lows to be more than double New 52 Week Highs. This is a critical defining component.

Filter #5: That for a confirmed Hindenburg Omen there must be more than one signal within a 36 day period - there must be a cluster of Hindenburg Omens to increase the probability of a coming stock market plunge.

The rest of the article is certainly worth digesting.


Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.

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ingot54
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Nice collection, Spider - thanks for that effort.

Can it be compiled into a histogram or similar chart?


Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.

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elisabeth
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All Ords made (and closed at) a new ATH, but the number of stocks making 52wk highs decreased

((I also keep an eye on the ASX shorts list and have noticed that the % short borrowed has been rising over the last 3 weeks.))

Elisabeth

h&l


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elisabeth
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h&l


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elisabeth
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H&L


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elisabeth
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h&l


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timmers111
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Interesting statement by dr. Alexander Elder:

"...if each stock is a soldier, then new highs and new lows are the officers. New highs are the officers who lead the attack up a hill, and new lows are the officers who are deserting and running downhill. There are no bad soldiers, only bad officers who are deserting and running downhill..."

I think the cumulative NH-NL Elder uses can be used together with the representation used here. Divergences in the height of the peaks compared to the peaks of a major index give important information. This can be a leading signal to a changing main-market-direction.

There are almost no forums like this one. I (as a european trader) find myself lucky to be able to learn from this forum!

ThnX for this valuable site/forum!
timmers111
(posted an interesting question under "trading systems" about Weinstein/Snifter's use of stoplosses. Need some insight and experience on this subject like "what height of a correction makes it a significant one to start shifting the stop-loss when implementing Weinstein's stoplossmethod into Snifter's system...still with me?)


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elisabeth
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Interesting week, I think. The red arrows point to inversely similar "engulfing" bars, the one on the left clearly a significant bottom.

Just a note : Easter week, 5 bars back, smartinvestor were too keen to get away for the long weekend and no data was published - I duplicated the prior week's data. Though disappointing (a thorn, actually….I hate that I don't have that bar!), I don't think that week would have impacted this chart significantly.

Elisabeth
h&l


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ken
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Hello all,

We had a confirmed Hindenburg Omen yesterday in the US market. This consists of two Hindenburg omens within 36 days. The first was last week.

This indicator is reasonably predictive of sharp falls in the US market - indeed no sharp falls have not been predicted by it since 1985. However not all confirmed Hindenburg Omens produce significant falls.

Don't forget that in these sharp falls, stop losses don't save you. Coincidentally I am currently mostly out of the market - having a holiday next week in Perth.

Date of first # of Signals DJIA Time Until
Hindenburg In Cluster Subsequent Decline
Omen Signal % Decline Bottomed

9/21/2005 5 ? ?
4/13/2004 (1) 5 5.4% 30 days
6/20/2002 5 15.8% 30 days
23.9% 112 days
6/20/2001 2 25.5% 93 days
3/12/2001 4 11.4% 11 days
9/15/2000 9 12.4% 33 days
7/26/2000 3 9.0% 83 days
1/24/2000 6 34.2% 44 days
6/15/1999 2 6.7% 122 days
12/22/1998 (2) 2 0.2% 1 day
7/21/1998 (3) 1 19.7% 41 days
12/11/1997 11 5.8% 32 days
6/12/1996 3 8.8% 34 days
10/09/1995 6 1.7% 1 day
9/19/1994 7 8.2% 65 days
1/25/1994 14 9.6% 69 days
11/03/1993 3 2.1% 2 days
12/02/1991 9 3.5% 7 days
6/27/1990 17 16.3% 91 days
11/01/1989 36 5.0% 91 days
10/11/1989 2 10.0% 5 days
9/14/1987 5 38.2% 36 days
7/14/1986 9 3.6% 21 days


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eblode
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Ken,
Briefly what is the Hindenberg Omen?
Eugenio


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visions
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Hi Eugenio

Found this, hope it helps. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

Cheers ... Visions


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ken
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Hello all,

I'm reactivating this Hindenburg Omen thread today.

This is an indicator promoted by Robert McHugh of Technical Indicator Index. I subscribe to his newsletter.

The Hindenburg Omen is an indicator that a crash is likely in the medium term future (from next day to a couple of months). You can read more about it on his site www.technicalindicatorindex.com .

The first component of the indicator is the occurrence of more than 2.2% of traded stocks reaching new 52 week highs and more than 2.2% reaching 52 week lows on the same day.

There are other conditions to be met before a Hindenburg Omen is confirmed, not all of which have equivalents for the Australian market.

However today for the first time in ages we have met the initial condition in the Australian market. There were 31 new highs and 35 new lows today on 1413 issues, close enough for me (2.194% of highs).

The theory of the indicator is that it identifies internal confusion in the market, which seems to resolve by changing direction downwards.

application/pdf
main line investorthe past performance of the hindenburg o.pdf (30.6 k)


The last time hi's and Lo's were both over 30 was 6/5/08 to 22/5/08. Before that it was

23/10/07 to 9/1/08
27/7/07
9/8/07
2/5/07 to 29/6/07
23/2/07 to 21/3/07


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hailoh
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Well reported Ken - will you keep us informed if there is a second instance - a cluster forming?

I was looking at the powershares DB US dollar bullish and bearish indices (UUP_MX and UDN_MX)and volumes for both are low, also indicating indecision. My interest is the interplay between markets, $US level and price of gold.


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ken
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Hello Hailoh,

I emailed Robert McHugh today and asked him if he would consider developing a Hindenburg Omen for the Aussie market.

I'll report on this and also if there is another day of 2.2% highs and lows.


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whiteowl
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Hi Ken

“Cattle Herd Mentality 101”
If a mob of cattle sticks together, it usually progresses in a reasonably orderly and directional manner.
If a mob of cattle spreads out, the ‘outliers’ (your 2% with new highs and lows) sooner or later look up and see they are far away from the main herd.
If they panic and rush back to the main herd, it can trigger a stampede of the whole mob the other way.

You have 1413 ‘issues’ .. is that all ASX shares, and is that regardless of liquidity ?
The new lows for example must comprise partially of illiquid duds one step from delisting ?

Thanks for the great post.


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ken
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From Robert McHugh in today's report, regarding the US markets:-

We got a Hindenburg Omen observation Thursday, August 12th. All criteria were met. Both NYSE New 52 Week Highs and New 52 Week Lows exceeded 2.2 percent of NYSE traded issues. The McClellan Oscillator is negative, and the 50 Day Moving Average is Rising. New 52 Week Highs were not more than twice New 52 Week Lows, so it all adds up to an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen observation Thursday. Once we get a second observation, we will have a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, which would mean the probability of markets crashing over the next few months would become far higher than is normally possible given random chance. This would be only the second Hindenburg Omen since 2008, which of course led to the massive stock market crash in the autumn 2008. Our research shows that a stock market crash can occur as soon as the next day, or as far into the future as four months. Hindenburg Omens are very rare, as there have only been 27 confirmed H.O.s over the past 25 years.


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hailoh
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G'day Ken,

I read speculation in the US financial press that this advent of the Hindenburg Omen could play out into a September bath. There will be a raft of new observers now and a second incidence is certain to receive wide coverage.


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billt
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hi Ken


Here is my post from EWW this morning...

"...but if you believe in Omens...the five requirements aligned last night greatly increasing the odds of a larger sell-off?


Hindenburg Omen:

1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day. (New 52 week lows reached a huge 119 issues, and the highs came in at 179 issues.)

2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than 75.

3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.

4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.

5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows.

The number of new 52 weeks lows has exploded upwards, despite the SPX moving sideways. Parts of this market are not happy and if they do not recover, SPX will be following soon. Having one sector soaring, and another setting new lows is not good in the balance of a healthy market."


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ehmu
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So what are the odds that this is a valid Omen, 1/3 ?


_____ n a m a s t e

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billt
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hi Hal,

Odds have it about 1 in 3...

A further concern is the negative divergence that set up between the NYSE & the A/D line.

Perhaps we might head back down to test the late November lows...?




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billt
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Thursday, December 16, 2010 - 08:36 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...an update...


...2nd Hinde' signal....


"We did get a second Hindenburg signal today with all the requirements fulfilled. New 52 week lows finished at 93 issues, and new highs at 157. Wikipedia has updated the conditions for the Hindenburg Omen including the number of new highs/lows that are required are now up to 2.8% of the total issues which works out to 84 issues. Other improvements include that we now need 3 signals within a months period, and The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago instead of the older rule were the 10 week MA must be rising. These changes should really help eliminate some of the false signals, a much needed improvement!!!
So we now only have two signals and still need a third within the next 28 or so days to get a confirmed signal, and with the way the SPX is consolidating this week, I do not think it will be a problem at all to get more signals in the next couple of days as long as we stay range bound and do not have any large moves to the upside."







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billt
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Friday, December 17, 2010 - 10:34 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



To eliminate false positives some technical analysts have imposed the condition that the Hindenburg Omen:

• must be triggered three times in a row within a month from the first triggering event for said initial trigger signal to be considered to be valid (i.e. requires double confirmation)

• is only valid when "all tightly coupled triggering are within a fortnight"

However there have been a number of substantial corrections on one or two alignments. As recently as 2008, 2001, and 1998, where one or two signals have triggered collapses greater than 20%..


We currently now have two in a row:

• December 14, 2010: 113 New Lows, 179 New Highs, 3063 Advancers+Decliners, McClellan Oscillator was negative (-5.36), NYSE Composite Index closed at 7855.22 vs 7272.53 50 trading days prior (October 4, 2010), and the 10 week moving average was rising.

• December 15, 2010: 89 New Lows, 156 New Highs, 3044 Advancers+Decliners, McClellan Oscillator was negative (-22.59), NYSE Composite Index closed at 7798.78 vs 7434.18 50 trading days prior (October 5, 2010), and the 10 week moving average was rising.




If we define a crash as a 15% decline, of the previous 27 confirmed Hindenburg Omen signals over 25 years:

30% were followed by financial system threatening stock market crashes.

11% more were followed by stock market selling panics (10% to 14.9% declines).

15% resulted in sharp declines (8% to 9.9% drops).

22% were followed by meaningful declines (5% to 7.9%)

15% saw mild declines (2.0% to 4.9%), and

7% percent were failures, with subsequent declines of 2.0% or less.

Put another way, there is a 30% probability that a stock market crash -- the big one -- will occur after we get a confirmed (more than one in a cluster) Hindenburg Omen.

There is a 41% probability that at least a panic sell-off will occur.

There is a 56% probability that a sharp decline greater than 8 % will occur, and there is a 78% probability that a stock market decline of at least 5 percent will occur.

Only one out of roughly 13 times will this signal fail.

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